Ford Open

Final event of the year and as a result of few of the bigger names are absent this week. Allenby, Appleby and Norman have had enough and O'Malley is in Argentina for the World Cup. Still some decent names left though everyone seems to have gone overboard on Baddeley. Good finishes in the last two weeks and in the last two Ford Opens, but surely he is not worth a single figure price! DAS are the only ones to offer anyone else (Parry) as favorite for this event.

The course is not very long, but tree-lined fairways dictate that accuracy is important this week. The greens as ever on the Australasian Tour are typically hard and fast. Much will depend on the weather this week; typically the wind blows on this Adelaide course and par is a good score. Last year it did not and Parry won with a very low score; but it was still the same type of player who fared well: accurate and good in wind. Parry & O'Malley fit that bill exactly.

My top-two ranked players this week are Craig Parry and Paul Gow, while the third outright pick is Scott Laycock. Parry is the defending champion and had finished 3rd, then 2nd prior to winning last year. He was also an outright pick last week and played well, but not as well as Greg Norman thought he had! According to the reports, he was not that flustered about that disqualification; maybe he already had defending this title on his mind. The more the wind blows, the better will be his chances.

Paul Gow has not played this event since 1997, but he has been in excellent form of late: 2nd after the 1st round of the Johnnie Walker and 1st after the 2nd round of the Australian Open before falling away. He secured a more consistent 25th place last week and in a weakened field looks to have a better chance than most to add to his victory in the Canon Challenge earlier in the year. The mild outsider is Scott Laycock who has had two top-30 finishes in the last stagings of this event, but the real factor here is his current form. He lead the Australian Open for the 2nd & 3rd rounds before falling back to 4th, but  then came back in style last week at the PGA with opening rounds of 69 and 70 to again lie in the top-5 before a 78 on Saturday ended his hopes. Having restored some pride on Sunday, he could once again be a real challenger this week, though hopefully on Sunday this time!

Outright plays:

Craig Parry to win e/w 14/1 @ William Hill

Paul Gow to win e/w 22/1 @ William Hill

Scott Laycock to win e/w 33/1 @ William Hill, though available generally at this price.

Will have 72-hole matchup plays tomorrow morning. Need 10 units this week to finally reach that 200-unit goal for the season

72-holes plays:

Scott Laycock to beat Steven Conran -125 @ First Stake
Expecting a rebound from Conran after last weekend's tension of playing in the final pairing and pushing Allenby so hard; with course experience an edge, Laycock should hopefully be a challenger this week and beat Conran in the process

Peter Lonard to beat Scott Gardiner -125 @ First Stake [2 units]
Consistency, experience and good course form point to Lonard in this matchup. Gardiner finished 4th last week, but had played poorly previously and missed the cut here last year

Paul Gow to beat Brett Rumford -111 @ First Stake [3 units]
Rumford missed the cut as an outright play last week and hasn't looked the player that took this Tour by storm 12 months ago; Gow has looked more impressive lately and his much straighter driving will be rewarded this week

Bradley King to beat Matt Kuchar -111 @ First Stake
OK, so King has missed the last two cuts on this course and has a best of 37th in the three Tour events so far, but I can't help opposing Kuchar! I don't know why he opened his pro career in Australia and despite a promising 1st round in the Australian Open, he hasn't looked particularly good; will have home on his mind this week

Michael Long to beat Matt Kuchar -118 @ Centrebet
As above, even though Long has just arrived back from a failed PGA Tour qualifying attempt. He has played on this course before and is already back home for Christmas, with a break after this event I think he will overcome the fatigue factor sufficiently to beat Kuchar

1st round update:

No 1st round plays and the 72-hole plays are evenly split 2-2-1. Laycock leads Conran by one, Lonard leads Gardiner by five, Gow trails Rumford by four, as does King to Kuchar, while Long and Kuchar are tied. Encouraging start for the outright plays with Parry in 3rd place and Laycock one shot further back in 10th place; Gow is 37th, three shots further back.

2nd round plays:

Richard Lee to beat Ed Stedman +100 @ DAS

Nick O'Hern to beat Adam Scott -105 @ DAS [2 units]

2nd round update: 1-1-0 and +1.00 units

Split the day's plays, but won the two-unit play to make a profit on the day   O'Hern edged out Scott by one, while Lee lost by two to Stedman. Of the 72-hole plays, just one is decided at the cut and it is a loss. Brad King went out in three-under-par, but then had a triple-bogey on the 10th   Par from that point on and he missed the cut by one, losing by four to Kuchar in the process. The four other plays are split: Laycock/Conran 7up; Lonard/Gardiner 10 up; Gow/Rumford 6 down; Long/Kuchar 3 down. The outright plays remain promising with Laycock 2nd, Parry 8th and Gow 31st after 36 holes.

3rd round play:

David Gleeson to beat Kurt Linde -120 @ DAS

Might have more later when Centrebet release two-ball lines.

3rd round update: 1-0-0 and +1.00 units

Gleeson beat Linde by two shots to secure the 3rd round win and matters improved on the 72-hole play front   The three-unit play on Gow over Rumford is now in a winning position. Gow overcame a six-shot deficit to go into the final 18 holes with a one-shot lead. In the other plays, Laycock now leads Conran by just two and Lonard stretched his lead over Gardiner to eleven shots, while Long is seven shots behind Kuchar. Not so good with the outright plays, Parry fell 9th, Laycock fell from 2nd to 23rd after a 76, but at least Gow is on the fringe of contention in 12th place, four shots out of a place finish.

4th round plays:

Ed Stedman to beat Brad Kennedy -111 @ DAS

Nick O'Hern to beat Adam Scott -167 @ DAS  [72-hole matchup; O'Hern 2 shots ahead after 54 holes]

Final update: 2-0-0 and +2.00 units for the day; 7-3-0 and +7.71 units for the week

Stedman recorded a comprehensive eight-shot victory over Kennedy and O'Hern extended his lead over Scott to three shots by the close. The remaining 72-hole plays finished 3-1-0: Laycock had a disappointing weekend but still edged out out Conran by one, Lonard won the tournament and beat Gardiner by thirteen, Gow had a great weekend and beat Rumford by four, while Kuchar defeated Long by ten. Not a good week to oppose the young American, but still a good week overall and makes the goal of +200 units very attainable

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +0.75 units

Small profit on the week's outright plays as Gow surges from 31st place after 36 holes to finish 2nd; Parry had always been in contention but finished out of the money in 8th place and Laycock suffered over the weekend finish down in 32nd place.