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12-3; -14.25pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liabiity Rory McIlroy 7 42nd
Smylie Kaufman 170 56th
Dustin Johnson 10.5 1st
James Hahn 300 24th
Gary Woodland 55 24th
Si-Woo Kim 150 20th
McIlroy did win last week and he did win this event when it was held at Crooked Stick in 2012, but these are very short odds pre-tournament - he has been 14 and 17 in the last two Playoff events - and it was only his second win of the year
Kaufman struggled on Sunday as he dropped from 3rd to 24th and that leaves him just outside the top-30 on the FedEx Cup standing (33rd), so there will be added pressure this week if he is to progress and Sunday's effort under pressure was not supportive of backing him this week
Continuing to oppose Johnson in the Playoffs - he was in a good position after 36 holes last week, but then struggled and these odds look too short for someone who is not at the top of his game
Hahn finished 5th last week and will probably need another top-5 finish to progress to the Tour Championship; given that it was only his second top-40 finish in the last seven months, he looks very unlikely to progress
Woodland is a player who is often under the rader, securing regular top-20 finishes, but winning really contending for a title; one win in the last five years suggests that he shouldn't be priced as low as this even if he will progress to next week's Tour Championship because of his consistency
Kim was the runaway winner of the Wyndham Championship, but has rarely looked like contending in any of the Playoffs and I can't see this week being any different Pre-rd3 plays: BACK 1pt Roberto Castro 7.8 3rd
Johnson is justifiably odds-on after his course record on Friday, but I think there is better value in backing Castro - he led after the 1st round and played well again in the 2nd round to not drop a single shot and was only caught by Johnson's record round. Given that Johnson struggled off the tee on Thursday, is not entirely happy with his irons and owed his low score to a very hot putter, it isn't automatic that he will dominate this event from this point forward - there should be better value in his co-leader who leads the event in strokes gained - tee-to-green LAY 20pts liability Paul Casey 9 2nd
Patrick Reed 270 13th
Louis Oosthuizen 390 17th
Sergio Garcia 50 47th
Casey in three shots behind the leaders, but he ranking 25th in greens in regulation suggests that his ball-striking is not as good as last week and that makes these odds look short, particularly after his tough experience when leading on Monday
Ten shots off the pace in 19th place, I would have expected much higher odds on Reed, so I'll certainly lay him at these odds
The same can be said for Oosthuizen who is in the same position, but is not in the same form as Reed
Garcia looks set for another good event - he is 6th after rd2 - but he is seven shots off the pace and not a prolific converter of chances should he have a career round to get himself into real contention Pre-round 4 plays: BACK 1pt Paul Casey 6.4 2nd
Johnson holds a three-shot lead, but he is just 2-for-6 when leading after 54 holes, so I think his price is a little low and Casey's is rather high - the Englishman is in great form and has a chance to make amaends after he failed to convert a three-shot lead after 54 holes last week; it will be very different playing the role of hunter rather than hunted this week LAY 20pts liability Roberto Castro 110 3rd
Jordan Spieth 490 9th
Adam Scott 44 4th
Castro struggled with his game yesterday and is now six shots back and projected not to progress to the Tour Championship; it will be an impressive effort if he can reverse that by finishing 3rd, but he is too far back to be a realistic challenger
Spieth's only hope of chellenging for this title ended when he bogeyed the last two holes yesterday and he is now ten shots back
Scott has played well this week and putted particularly well yesterday, but he is still seven shots off the pace and these odds are too short for someone in that position |
