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7-3; +12,00pts (system plays: 3-3-0) Round 1 plays (4pts unless stated): Bill Haas to beat Rickie Fowler +100 @ Paddy Power LOST by 1
Opposing Fowler who did finish 2nd five years ago, but has struggled here more recently, including missed cuts in each of the last two years. He was also unimpressive when finishing 66th in his opening event of 2015 in the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship, so Haas looks a far better proposition than these odds suggest. He won last week and has a good record on this course with four consecutive top-35 finishes and two top-10 finishes overall. Phil Mickelson to beat Rickie Fowler +100 @ 5Dimes and The Greek [available generally] WON by 1
Opposing Fowler in this matchup with a multiple-winner of the Phoenix Open and one of those wins was a recent as 2013. He looked to be in decent form last week after the Tour rustiness of rd1 had been overcome and he looks sure to be near the top of the leaderboard at some stage this week; that looks less likely for Fowler, so again there is value at plus-odds. Hunter Mahan to beat Brooks Koepka -110 @ 5Dimes [2pts] WON by 2
Making his first start of 2015 and his first visit to TPC Scottsdale, Koepka looks to be a go-against player this week. The same cannot be said for Mahan who finished 17th in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and whose record at TPC Scottsdale includes a win (2010) and two other top-10 finishes, including 4th here last year. [unofficial r1 system plays: Hearn tb Ogilvy -120 (L); Harrington P tb Stallings -110 (W)] Round 2 plays (2pts): Jordan Spieth to beat Patrick Reed -143 @ Bet365 WON by 1
Spieth finished rd1 in 42nd place and that's a good start for his first round of 2015. I'd expect to see an improvement in rd2, regardless of the fact that he won his last two events of 2014. He still finished ahead of Reed in rd1 and I fully exepct a repeat result in rd2. Matt Kuchar to beat Keegan Bradley -125 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] WON by 3
Kuchar is certainly not 'Tour-rusty' at the moment. He has played in all three events in 2015 and finished 17th, 3rd and 2nd. He wasn't at his best yesterday, but his form is enough to expect a turnaround today. Bradley was at his best yesterday and finished the day in 2nd place, but he can't match Kuchar on either form or on the heads-to-head which is particularly strong in rd2: 11-2-1 in Kuchar's favour since March. Charley Hoffman to beat Robert Streb -120 @ Paddy Power LOST by 3
Streb may have finished rd1 inside the top-5, but Hoffman ranked inside the top-20 for driving distance and accuracy and greens in regulation so he has clearly retained the form that has seen him finish 14th and 2nd so far this year, so I expect another good round today. This is the third event of 2015 in which Stren has finished rd1 inside the top-5. On both previous occasions, he has dropped back consistently over the week - from 3rd to 5th to 7th to 8th and from 3rd to 8th to 19th to 17th - so a repeat looks rather likely. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Kuchar tb Fowler -120 (W); Stefani tb DeLaet +100 (L)] Round 3 plays (4pts): Bill Haas to beat Rickie Fowler +110 @ Paddy Power TIED
A repeat of the 1st round matchup, but with better odds. The same reasons as the 1st round play apply again and with Haas having a good record when at this point on the leaderboard, this a value play at these odds. Freddie Jacobson to beat J.B. Holmes +110 @ 5Dimes WON by 2
Another value play at plus-odds. Apart from closing with three birdies to get himself under the cut line, Holmes has again been poor this week. He finished 33rd of 34 in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and missed the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii, so looks to be a go-against player despite that short burst of form. Round 4 plays (4pts): Justin Thomas to beat Brooks Koepka +102 @ Pinnacle LOST by 6
Backing the in-form player who has been much better from tee to green this week. Thomas ranks 2nd in greens in regulation and 5th in 'Strokes Gained - Tee-to-Green' this week, so fully justifies his current 5th place position; Koepka ranks 13th and 16th in those two categories so is less deserving of his current 2nd place finish. And in terms of form, this is Koepka's first event for two months, whereas Thomas has finished 6th and 7th in the last two weeks and so shouldn't be the underdog. Robert Streb to beat Ryan Moore +100 @ Bet365 WON by 2
Similar angles in this matchup. Streb ranks 13th in greens in regulation and 17th in 'Strokes Gained - Tee-to-Green' this week, so is slightly over-performing to be 8th on the leaderboard; Moore is 52nd and 34th in those two categories so it is clearly not ball-striking that is the cause of his 8th place position and that is in line with his form - he has finished 20th (of 34) and wd in his two starts this year, whereas Streb has finished 8th and 17th. Brian Harman to beat J.B. Holmes +100 @ 5Dimes WON by 2
Dropping to the bottom of the leaderboard to oppose Holmes again - he ranked 167th in Final Round Scoring last season and already ranks 168th in that category this season. In both seasons, Harman has ranked over 100 places higher and he has shown enough form this year to suggest that he could shoot a low score today - he has finished 17th and 13th in his two starts of 2015. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Knox tb Chappell +107 (W); Johnson tb Koepka +100 (L)] |
