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FINAL RESULT Cink beat Choi (mc) Jobe beat Johnson by 8 Kelly tied with Ogilvy Mayfair tied with Couples
Bets: 4 Wins: 2 Losses: 0 Profit/Loss = +3.64 pts
Matchup bets: (All bets: Total Stake 2pts unless stated)
Stewart Cink to beat KJ Choi -111 @ Paddy Power Cink had a relatively poor season last year, primarily down to a deterioration in his usually reliable putting. But he returned to the tour this season with a 10th place finish at the Sony Open and a 2nd place ranking for putts per GIR. Despite his average performance last season his average FP last year of 29th place was 5 better than Choi's. He has demonstrated a liking for the course, his average FP at Torrey Pines of 25th is 13 places better than Choi's, is in fine form and clearly beats Choi in the h2h's (3yrs: 24-16-3, 1yr: 7-3-3, 12mths: 2-0-0). Despite Choi having 2 top 20 finishes this year (but still couldn't beat Cink at the Sony), he does prefer easier courses than this and Cink should be the favourite for this match-up.
Brandt Jobe to beat Zach Johnson -111 @ Expekt Jobe is long off the tee but can be erratic, which shouldn't be too much of a hindrance to him this week considering Tiger's performance last year. He has an excellent record at this event having 3 top 20 finishes and has defeated Johnson both in 2004 and 2005. He also has the advantage of having made an appearance this season with a very promising 16th place finish at the Bob Hope, hitting four decent rounds after a disappointing opening round. In addition, he leads Johnson in the h2h's (3yrs: 14-11-1, 1yr: 11-6-1, 3mths: 2-0-0). Jobe was a much improved player last year and his opening tournament of this year suggests that improvement will continue, which should ensure he retains his 100% record over Johnson in this event.
Jerry Kelly to beat Geoff Ogilvy +100 @ 5Dimes Ogilvy has a poor record at Torrey Pines with finishes of 67th and a missed cut. This poor form extends to California where he has only 2 top 50 finishes and has missed the cut in 50% of his starts. Kelly is an ideal candidate for match bets as he demonstartes admirable consistency. He is beginning to get the hang of the course, with finishes of 11th and 8th in his last 2 starts. Kelly finished 13th in this years Sony (hitting four sub-70 rounds) and with a better average FP than Ogilvy in the last 3 years and a h2h lead over Ogilvy over the last 3, 12 and 36 months the odds here represent decent value.
Billy Mayfair to beat Fred Couples +114 @ Pinnacle (Total Stake 1.5pts) This is a great price for Mayfair (he has even touched +117). Mayfair's game improved dramatically last season, demonstrated by the improvement in his all-around ranking; 2003:103rd, 2004:143rd, 2005:6th. And this is despite a relatively woeful putting average ranking of 101st. But he is a terrific tee-to-green player and he has carried that form through to this season with finishes of 24th and 10th. Last week marked a huge change for Mayfair in terms of his stats. Desite finishing 10th he was 3rd for putts per GIR and coupled with his 1st for scrambling (which from previous years appears to be the most prominent requirement in this event) he should be in for another good week. Couples will be hard to beat and there doesn't seem to be a lot to separate them in either overall form, course form or current form, but anything above +105 should be treated as value.
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