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Betfair Picks - European Tour |
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17-3; +9.22pts Pre-tournament plays: LAY 20pts liability Kiradech Aphibarnrat 55 37th
Maximilian Kieffer 120 47th
Marcel Siem 120 60th
James Morrison 130 64th
Zander Lombard 200 5th
Alvaro Quiros 210 mc
Carlos Pigem 310 mc
Pachara Khongwatmai 330 mc
Pep Angles 350 mc
Sebastian Soderberg 370 mc
Stuart Manley 420 47th
Oliver Bekker 430 mc
It's hard to see why Aphibarnrat is inside the top-10 in the market - in his last three starts, he was disqualified after 32 holes of the Open de France when 16-over-par at the time and has then missed the cuts at both the Irish Open and the Scottish Open
The rest are players who are available at triple-digit odds, but I would still price higher Pre-rd4 plays: BACK 1pt Jordan Smith 3.25 1st
Jens Fahrbring 16 5th
Ashley Chesters 21 8th
Ryan McCarthy 46 19th
Smith looks very good today and takes a two-shot lead into the final round; he was 1-for-2 when leading after 54 holes on the Challenge Tour, but he is improving quickly on this Tour and I would price him half a point lower
Fahrbring is in 2nd place behind Smith and was also impressive today despite a slow start; he has a 3rd place finish on this Tour - the 2015 Italian Open when missing out by just a shot - so his odds look a little high
Chesters fell back from 1st to 4th today with a poor back nine, but he is another who I would certainly price lower given his ball-striking so far this week and his leaderboard position
Backing another inexperienced player in 4th place who has improved his score with each round and these odds look large for someone in this position LAY 20pts liability Alexander Levy 5.4 2nd
Richard Sterne 14.5 19th
Julian Suri 15.5 16th
Adrian Otaegui 18 5th
Levy is the leading player at the top of the leaderboard - the only one in the top-20 in the Race to Dubai in the top-20 on the leaderboard - but these odds are based on that R2D position rather than his play this week which see him ranked 38th in greens in regulation desite being 2nd on the leaderboard
It's a similar story with Sterne who is 4th, but also ranks 38th in greens in regulation with only two-thirds of greens hit in regulation - I would price him a few points higher
Suri was in great form two months ago, but his form has since cooled and these odds look a little low for a CHallenge Tour player in 4th place and three shots back
No problems with Otaegui's form either this week - he ranks 1st in driving accuracy and greens in regulation - or before this week - he has finished 7th-20th-19th in his last three starts, but he has shown brittleness recently when in contention so I'd back him to be placed but not win
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