Odds: Betfair Summary
Portugal Masters	Subscribe

7-1; -15.60pts  

Pre-tournament plays:

Alvaro Quiros 180  31st
Alex Noren 9.8  37th
Haydn Porteous 340  mc
It has been eight years since Quiros won this event; the current Quios has missed six cuts in a row and can easily be opposed on that basis
No doubting Noren's form - he has finished 2nd-1st-34th-11th-1st in his last five starts - but he has never done well the week after a win: those finishes read: 23rd-46th-34th. Together with finishes of 36th-29th-mc-46th in his last four visits to Oceanico Victoria GC and the fact that he has skipped this event in the last two years, he is certainly a player who should not be at single figure odds this week
Porteous finished 64th last week which was a marked improvement on his previous form which resulted in seven missed cuts in a row; very easy to oppose a player in such poor form 

Pre-rd3 plays:

Callum Shinkwin 55  17th
Thomas Pieters 240  31st
Padraig Harrington 10  1st
Marcel Siem 120  50th
It's a crowded leaderboard behind Warren and Sullivan and I would have priced Shinkwin much higher than this - he has never won a Challenge Tour event and his best finish on the main Tour is 7th, so he is well above expectations to be 10th at the halfway stage, particularly as none of his ball-striking stats are indicative of a top-10 position
Even with Pieter's ability, it would take an incredible weekend if he were to win from 65th position having made the cut on the mark; only four players have hit fewer greens over the first few days which also indicates how remarkable it would be if Pieters even got himself into the top-10 from here
Harrington is just a shot behind Warren and Sullivan, but he had missed his last three cuts and ranks outside the top-30 so far this week in driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation so I like the odds on him not staying so close to the leaders over the weekend
The odds also look rather short on Siem who is back in 27th place - it has been over five months since his last top-10 finish and there are just too many players ahead of him to warrant these odds

Pre-rd4 play:

Marc Warren 16  12th
Easy to oppose Warren who started the 3rd round as joint leader with Sullivan, held sole lead after eight holes, but then had three consecutive bogeys around the turn and is in 7th place and three shots off the pace. It's a long way back to the top of the leaderboard having fallen down it so quickly on Saturday.