Johnnie Walker Championship

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Rafa Cabrera Bello to beat Brooks Koepka - 3.3 points @ 10-11 (Ladbrokes)

Brett Rumford to beat Gregory Bourdy - 2 points @ 91-100 (Betway)

As much as I am a fan of Koepka, winner of 3 events on the Challenge Tour earlier this year and therefore gaining automatic promotion to the main Tour, he still has it to prove in top company. Whilst there is no doubt he has it in him to succeed, very few go on to establish themselves straight away and it is asking a fair bit for him to finish in front of proven top-grade winner Bello.

The eye-catcher with the American is that win and 12th at the Hydro and the Scottish Open, figures that bode well back here after a week amongst the big boys at the PGA. However, whilst the win at Spey Valley was impressive, it came with a remarkable ability to play from severe rough in seriously gusty conditions. No reason to suggest that was a fluke, but that ability looked head-and-shoulders above his peers and he may not get away with it this week in this class and there will be little wind and rain to increase any superiority. We have already seen the with the likes of Kofstad, Hansen and Broberg (the class of CT2012) that it sometimes takes time to prosper and it simply looks like an 'each-of-two' is far away from the true odds.

Cabrera-Bello has had a disappointing season although he is still well within the qualification mark for the Race To Dubai/Tour Championship/Fight To The Line/Whatever else they want to call it. Just two top-10s and a further two top-20s to show for his efforts, there are huge glimmers of hope amongst his last two efforts in Majors - 21st and 29th. Interestingly, the Spaniard's putting stats look to have improved as the events have got tougher and, being his nemesis in the past, could give him the confidence to attack these pins as befits his natural game.  

It will be close between them off the tee as both are long hitters but, at 10-11 each-of-two, we have to be with the player with the two pro wins behind him, including the Dubai Desert Classic.

Brett Rumford's latest form needs ignoring for this match-up but equally it is hard to get excited about his oppo, who couldn't boost himself for his most important event of the year, his home French Open. Winless since 2009, it looked as though there was a coup or two to be had following a 12th and 8th finish in the middle of the year. Alas, he has failed to compete on courses that will suit, with a best of 34th at home. Bourdy's figures here are decent enough - 6/10/15 - in his last three efforts but he lacks length off the tee and recent putting displays are not good enough to challenge here.

Aussie Rumford was winless for six years before popping up at the Ballantines this year, but he impressed with his attitude in the play-off after throwing away a decent lead, and backed that up at the China Open just a week later. Given previous wins have been at St Omer and in Ireland, we know he takes to undulating tracks, is a great wind player and when added to his course form, he should be outright fav this week.

Of his most recent runner-up finishes here (2010 and 2012), he was most unfortunate in the former, having played magnificent golf to fly through the field on Payday, only to see Edouardo Molinari birdie the final three holes to pip him. Last season he again finished strongly to finish clear runner-up with only Paul Lawrie inspired enough to beat him. Rumford's stats seem to improve once arriving at Gleneagles and if he return to the mindset of either those or the beginning of 2013, he should prove victorious in this matchup.