Madeira Island Open

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A Challenge Tour event in all but name over an extremely hilly and tricky track that often lends itself to course specialists, Santo De Serra is prime material for punting.

MARKUS BRIER TO BEAT MATTHEW BALDWIN - 4 POINTS @ 5-6 (BOYLESPORTS)

Baldwin finished top-10 in the Challenge Tour rankings last season and is playing very well, finishing in China with a Brier-equalling 67 to finish above his opponent. He has been catching the eye when getting plenty of Sky coverage but crucially has no course experience. He is a winner waiting to happen but this will be tough.   

The Austrian has two top-10s and a 15th in his last seven tries here, and whilst that last effort was 2008, current form suggests he is coming right for the 2012 renewal. His putting ranks way above his rival and he won't be fazed by the undulations or any mist or fog - that course knowledge is worth plenty of shots here and he is expected to know too much - for this year anyway.

 JAMIE ELSON TO BEAT PHILIP PRICE - 2 POINTS @ 5-6 (BOYLESPORTS)

 Elson was a huge eye-catcher in Joburg, sandwiching 75/70 with an opening 64 and Sunday 63. He hasn't kicked on but his efforts in Abu Dhabi (far classier event) and Sicily were not horrendous efforts and he likes the island, having finished runner-up in the Open here in 2011 (different course).  

Elson also boasts a top-25 on his only effort around here and although some years ago, that still beats the two finishes by Price (45th and m/c). Price has had a couple of nice finishes in recent months to cap something of a 'middle aged Summer' but he remains unreliable on the greens and that won't do around here, where three and four-putts are commonplace.