China Open

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3-1; +10.40pts  (system plays: 12-11-5) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Matthew Millar to beat David Gleeson -110 @ Five Dimes  WON by 1
Opposing Gleeson who is a regular on the Asian PGA Tour, but has struggled this year, failing to break 70 in any event so far. Similarly, he has struggled in this event, missing the cut in five of the last six years. By contrast, Millar may have lost his European Tour Card from last year and so only concentrated on the Australasian Tour, but he still made over half of his cuts last year and played well in the co-sanctioned events with the Nationwide Tour in February. That is sufficient evidence of a difference in quality between these two players.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Rumford tb Whiteford -120 (L); Wall tb Ilonen -111 (L); Noren tb Finch +115 (T); Noren tb McGowan -105 (T); Erlandsson tb Townsend -105 (L); Derksen tb Bjorn -110 (W); Siem tb Lowry -110 (L); Donaldson tb Ilonen -110 (W)]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Jamie Donaldson to beat Do-Hoon Kim -130 @ Five Dimes  WON by 1
Kim may have displayed good form recently on the Korean Tour and the OneAsia Tour, but this is a completely different level. If he were to retain the lead and win this event, he would become fully exempt on the European Tour and that huge career chance will surely put added pressure on the Korean player. For Donaldson, it is a different matter and he does have a particularly good record when in contention so early in an event. He was in the top-3 after 18 holes on two occasions last year and on both occasions, he closed the gap to the leader after the 2nd round, which is quite an achievement from such a lofty starting postion. On those occasions he started the weekend in 2nd place; on the three occasions in 2007 that he finished the 1st round in the top-3, he finished the 2nd round in the lead each time. So, one shot behind leader Kim appears to be the perfect platform for a strong performance heading into the weekend.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Montgomerie tb Kulacz -105 (W); Derksen tb Kulacz -116 (W); Maybin tb Fisher -116 (L); Pavin tb Ilonen -116 (L); Pavin tb Jaidee +155 (T); McDowell tb Jaidee +120 (T); Hanson tb Fernandez-Castano +100 (W); Hanson tb Liang +110 (W); Willet tb Finch -125 (W); Hedblom tb Wu A -135 (T)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Peter Hanson to beat Johan Edfors +102 @ Unibet  LOST by 4
One simple stat sums up the difference between these two players: in their last ten common events, Hanson has finished ahead of Edfors nine times and on the other occasion, they were tied after 72 holes. Hanson has been very consistent this year and should remain in the top-20 after the 3rd round.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Jaidee tb Kim Do -150 (L); Donaldson tb Kim Do -111 (W); Edfors tb Storm -125 (W); Ilonen tb Donaldson +100 (W); Montgomerie tb Dodd -118 (L); Noren tb Lowry -143 (W); Ilonen tb Larrazabal -115 (W); Willett tb Whiteford -110 (L); Geary tb Bowditch -105 (L); Warren tb Bae +110 (L)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Stephen Dodd to beat Do-Hoon Kim +110 @ Bet365 and BetFred [available widely]  WON by 3
It took longer than expected for the pressure to have its effect on Kim, but it eventually did so in a stuttering back nine for the leader. He has now fallen to 5th place and it will be interesting to see how he responds; each round has been a much score than the previous one so far. That said, I am confident that Dodd will continue his form that has now brought him alongside Kim in 5th place. He has comfortably made the cut in each of his last four events and he does have a good history in this event: he won the China Open in 2004 and was 6th last year. I'd certainly back him at plus odds in this matchup.

[unofficial rd4 system play: Ilonen tb Donaldson -120] (T)