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RHYS DAVIES - 1 point each-way @ 50-1 (Sportingbet/Corals) And now the end is near.... The finale of the season is probably going to be one of the most exciting for a number of years. Not only is there the time-honured issue of those ranked even 7-25 fighting over a place in the top-15 and thus a European Tour card, but the race for the Road To Oman is open to three excellent players who may react in any fashion to the pressure of grabbing that impressive trophy. On a personal note, it has been eight months of nervous trepidation as 16-1 ante-post bet Ricardo Gouveia has flirted with far more than just his sole win, often taking time off from events that look primed for him. Somehow, despite that only victory, his consistency sees him with a E2k lead over dual winner Sebastian Gros and a E22k lead over another two-time winner, the extremely promising Borja Virto Astudillo. In terms of this week, as long as Virto does not win, the Portugese star only has to finish above Gros to land the title and given his regular claim that this has been his only goal since last season, he may well use his impressive game-play to leaderboard watch, rather than chase the NBO Classic Trophy. It isn't that Gouveia cannot win this but history would be against him (as it would be with the other two) given that neither of the season-ending rankings winners has won this in the two years that the event has taken place here and, to be honest, it would be perfectly understandable that the three of them had their own private battle well away from the limelight on Sunday afternoon. Of the three, if this was a regular event without the frills and fuss, I would be very keen on the young Spaniard at the price but, in all honesty, they are best left alone. Looking through the two recent runnings at this coastal, often windy course, there is a definite link to a couple of course. The Rolex, given it is a shortened field does hold some sway, and in that case all of Ryan Fox, Gary Boyd, Jens Dantorp and Astudillo hold claims. Fox is the one I would take out of that and am more than happy to recommend him as a 'watch' throughout the next three or four years on all Tours, but Dantorp and Boyd simply do not win enough to justify relatively short prices. The Englishman will surely cross the line soon after a recent run of three top-4s, a top-15 and two top-30s in his last six but is he really half the price of some proven winners? Probably time to justify the lone bet and it is with a positive outlook that I back Rhys Davies for the sixth time in his career. Those bets have landed two wins (Morocco and this year at La Gomera (Fred Olsen)) and at 50-1 he is a corking bet to become my best ever winning player! Before getting sentimental, the facts are that the Welshman has a record in some very significant events, has the pedigree to believe that he deserves his place back on the main Tour and also has a similar profile to a couple of highly-placed players in past runnings of this event. I know it was 2010 (John) and that win over Louis Oosthuizen sticks in the mind but he is probably best remembered for a missed two-footer when trying to defend at the Trophee Hassan and for being a buggy-driver in Monty's Ryder Cup - experience that many thought would be useful when he was considered a certainty for future events. Things haven't gone right but he seems to have settled into his game once again and has been impressive in his two victories at this level in 2015. The win in Turkey back in May was not only significant for his own self-belief, as there is a huge link between that event and this week at The Wave course. Numerous players in the top-10 here last year had form from that event with the top two, Oliver Farr and Jerome Lando Casanova finishing 2nd and 3rd round here, whilst 'Ben' An and Eduoard Espana also finished high in both events. However, we can also add the events at Brittany, an event at which Davies was 2nd in 2013 before a 4th here, as Benjamin Hebert won both in 2014 and Hugues Joannes and Robert Coles were players in the same year. We know that the Welshman has form in windy, tricky conditions, is one of the most accurate players and best putters on the Tour and has the form in relevent connecting events. He has a record of turning up for the same events year-to-year and even though he took six years between wins, two of his four victories have been at the Fred Olsen and, of course, there is that 1/2 at Hassan. As for having won two already, last years winner Hebert was already home and dry before winning his third event here and I simply do not see why he wasn't priced closer to the likes of JB Hansen (huge chance but never wins), Max Orrin (loves the wind) and Nacho Elvira (already on the Tour after his three early wins and surely only here to parade). He is a 25-33 shot and the early 55-1 has not be shortened enough to put me off, especially as he is a regular short-list player at the same price in full-field eventswithout the course form to back up his claim. This has been one of those years. Yes, Rhys did us a favour with his easy win but this Tour is getting harder with so much potential. I'm not sure if I'll be here next year. If not, it's been a lot of fun over the past few seasons, hope you've enjoyed it, and started to take an interest in an otherwise much-ignored Tour (for betting purposes). If I return, I'll bring a supply of paracetamol. As I say elsewhere Onwards........
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