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0-4; -6.00pts Louis Oosthuizen WIN - 2 points WIN @ 8/1 (General) mc Dean Burmester WIN - 2 points WIN @ 11/1 (Ladbrokes) 28th Daniel Van Tonder EACH-WAY - 0.5 points EACH-WAY @ 66/1 (1/5 8 places Skybet) mc Daniel Van Tonder TOP 10 - 1 point @ 6/1 (General) mc
It may be billed as the 'Opening Swing' but the first three events of the 2025 DPWT season have certainly whetted the appetite for the rest of the year. From rookies Elvis Smylie and Ryggs Johnstone beating the best Aussie golf has to offer, through to last weekend's hard graft at the Nedbank, it's been something of an exhibition for European tour golf, and probably deserving of an improved place in the calendar. The tour continues with the off-on flagship of the South African events. Swapping with the South African Open, that proud title may now have gone but the Alfred Dunhill Championship remains an excellent showcase, with an impressive winners list and an unquestionable link to events at the Gary Player club. As with the Nedbank, the roll-call of champions reads all class. Ernie Els, Brandon Grace, Charl Schwartzel and Christiaan Bezuidenhout take us through several ages of South African stars, and when we thought any upstarts might come along, the 2023 running saw old-stager Louis Oosthuizen beat Schwartzel by two shots, the three-time course winner himself finishing a couple ahead of Bez, the trio of home-boys clear of the rest. Pre-2005 and the move to Leopard Creek, this event took place at Houghton Creek in Joburg, a much further trek from Sun City, but both Els and Schwartzel (who won his first of four AD titles) confirming the link, we have a strong history to help this week. Bez took the lockdown opportunity to land the AD/SA Open double, the latter held at Nedbank host - the Gary Player CC - and whilst Els won the Nedbank in smaller, invitational, fields, his three championships plus form at Houghton and Leopard Creek row along with Schwartzel's figures as more meat to the bone. Even the most recent of events leads to the same path, with last week's Nedbank champ Johannes Veerman finishing in seventh place in the 2019 Alfred Dunhill, and lying in the same position going into the final round here last year. Like the Gary Player CC, Leopard Creek is designed by the man himself (he'll tell you so) and he probably had a hand in the course's own description, summing the 7100-yard-track as follows: "Golfing hazards take on a new dimension at Leopard Creek, for much of the water is home to the magnificent creatures for which the river is named - crocodiles. Extensive use has been made of water features and sightings of crocodile, hippo, antelope, buffalo and elephant are commonplace, on the course or in the Kruger Park bordering the course." The list of names etched on the trophy here reveal an emphasis once more on strong, accurate driving, ensuring that fairways are found, allowing players to find the tricky greens. Scrambling is tough here but a quality short game will be required for any loose shots. Making up shots around here is difficult when giving away strokes to the field and allows course comparison with the likes of Valderrama (Bez a winner at Sun City, Leopard Creek and at the Andalucía Masters; Adrian Otaegui runaway winner at Valders and runner-up here in 2022; Kaymer, Quirós and Garcia also names that pop up at both) as well as strong tee-to-green tracks that don't necessarily favour bombers, such as Le Golf National and the majority of Indian Open tracks.
Selections Absolutely no surprise to anyone, but home players dominate here. Along with Spaniards Pablo Larrazabal, Alvaro Quirós and two-time winner Pablo Martin, the two nations have shared 14 of the 16 championships held here. For anyone with long memories, home hero Els should have held on to a two-shot final hole lead in 2007 to increase the total to 15, making David Lipsky's win over fellow plodder David Drysdale in 2018 appearing very much an anomaly, even given the American's only other win was at tricky Crans. The game is now much more widespread now, of course, which might lend itself to an outside winner. However, last year's leader-board still saw the South African contingent dominate as expected, the first three places backed up by two more in a share of 7th place, and multiple DPWT winner Thriston Lawrence just off the page in 11th. Given that, combined odds of around 5/4 about the top four favourites look value. Louis Oosthuizen, Dean Burmester, Christiaan Bezhuidenhout and Thriston Lawrence look a different league to the remainder and it's just a matter of picking a couple from that quartet to form the basis of the week. Bez keeps catching the eye though possibly because he's saving shots with his short game rather than ripping the irons. He was outstanding in that SA Open/Alfred Dunhill run and his class is getting him consistently decent places but, boringly, it's the jolly that takes the headlines, even at single figures. I'm not really sure what there is to add to the case for the 42-year-old. Sure, his Open Championship victory was 14 years ago, but he's since landed runner-up finishes at the 2012 Masters, US Open in 2015 and 2021, again at the US PGA in 2017 and 2021 and once again at the 2015 Open (St. Andrews). Top that with a bronze behind Collin Morikawa and Jordan Speith at Royal St George's and we have a player looking head-and-shoulders above the next three in the market, none of whom can come close to that record with Lawrence's one 4th place aside appearing the best of the rest. After completing the Alfred Dunhill/Mauritius double last year, Oosthuizen continued his foray on the LIV tour, recording three top-five finishes from 13 events, in Saudi Arabia, Jeddah and at Valderrama, whilst also posting top-3 finishes on the International Series at Al Mouj (disputed lead all weekend) and Doha. Latest outing at Riyadh saw the favourite in the top-10 at halfway before succumbing to the top-class Joaquin Niemann, Cam Smith et al, and while we need to take the stats with the proverbial pinch, he looks to have recorded another solid tee-to-green game based on the driving accuracy and greens-in-reg stats available. Back here, on a course on which he has a win, three runner-up finishes and a pair of 7th place finishes, he can follow Pablo Martin and good friend Schwartzel in winning back-to-back. Old favourite Burmester caught the eye last week as he was on the way to his third successive top-10 before a double-bogey on his 72nd hole dropped him to 22nd. Following 12th at the Dunhill Links he dropped in grade for a seven-shot win in November, before finishing in fifth place in Qatar, rallying after a 73 on a tough third day, his only score over 69 in his last 16 rounds. Last week, Burmy was never really close enough to challenge but charged through from 25th to sit inside the top-10 after 71 holes. That effort keeps the run going and with wins at Houghton and Pretoria confirming the view he isn't just a rip-it merchant, he just lands the nod over compatriot Lawrence, also a winner of the Joburg and SA Opens. The latter may be returning to his best judged on an improved tee-to-green display last week. With a number of recent top-class performances in the bag, including a play-off defeat at Wentworth, the younger man needed careful consideration, but we might find a better opportunity soon. With two dominating the staking plan, look further down to the more speculative. Young players emerge from everywhere at this time of the year and we've already seen two potential stars win in Oz and Aldrich Potgieter almost take the Nedbank and increase his already considerable value. In that regard, Christiaan Mass is a player to follow closely over the next season or two and I'd welcome the opportunity to be with him very soon. This might be a bit much but he's a massive 'watch' along with another stellar former amateur in Wenyi Ding. However, let's row in with Daniel Van Tonder, a player in great form but available at over 66/1. The 33-year-old was a winner of the 2021 Kenya Savannah Classic, held during strange Covid times, but hosted by Karen CC, a venue that has seen many a similar type win the Kenya Open (Harding, Guido, Soderberg). However, his strike-rate at home leaves that behind, with 10 wins on the Sunshine Tour, including four in 2020 and a 2021 victory at the SA Open, with Bez, Burmy, Brandon Stone and many other notable home stars all behind. 2023 was tough but saw Van Tonder run up to a then-flying Ryan Van Velzen, and finish in the top five places in Italy, behind Adrian Meronk and last weekend's strong challenger Romain Langasque and Nedbank halfway leader Julien Guerrier. Dropping down to the Challenge Tour saw him play just five events, four of those co-sanctioned with the home schedule, resulting in top-10 finishes at the Di-Data (previous winners Bex and Brandon Grace, Burmy a two-time runner-up) and at the Jonsson Workwear (Jordan Smith and Lawrence also on the front page behind Matteo Manassero). Top those with two victories and five further front-page finishes on the home tour, and there is the feeling DVT could be ready to strike again, particularly as his closing 10th at the SA PGA saw him again rank highly in the GIR stats. Although not the grade of the top of the market, Van Tonder's price also allows us a bit of margin in the top-10 market, something he has achieved 21 times since 2021.
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