Simulation Results: Insperity Invitational

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	1.41%	71	35		43
Angel Cabrera	0.17%	588	81		60
Ben Crane	1.10%	91	34		43
Bernhard Langer	2.22%	45	42		19
Bo Van Pelt	0.14%	714	101		8
Bob Estes	0.01%	10000	751		72
Boo Weekley	0.08%	1250	126		1
Brian Gay	0.05%	2000	201		63
Cameron Percy	2.07%	48	36		19
Chad Campbell	0.00%	10000	1501		24
Charlie Wi	0.14%	714	67		3
Chris DiMarco	0.00%	10000	2001		43
Colin Montgomerie	0.08%	1250	126		27
Corey Pavin	0.00%	10000	2001		76
Darren Clarke	0.51%	196	111		3
David Duval	0.01%	10000	251		35
David Toms	0.23%	435	71		24
Dicky Pride	0.19%	526	201		27
Doug Barron	0.31%	323	67		43
Ernie Els	5.08%	20	20	0.10%	2	0.13	Boyle Sports: 18/1, 6pl, 1/5
Fred Couples	0.26%	385	126
Fred Funk	0.00%	10000	4001		68
Freddie Jacobson	1.23%	81	41		8
Gene Sauers	0.02%	5000	501		63
Glen Day	0.00%	10000	1001		43
Greg Chalmers	0.06%	1667	176		72
Heath Slocum	0.01%	10000	501		43
J.J. Henry	0.00%	10000	1251		57
Jason Caron	0.47%	213	81		57
Jay Haas	0.00%	10000	1501		60
Jeff Maggert	0.00%	10000	1001		52
Jerry Kelly	0.64%	156	67		52
Joe Durant	0.00%	10000	251		27
John Daly	0.00%	10000	2001
Justin Leonard	0.94%	106	56		27
Ken Duke	0.00%	10000	1001		35
Ken Tanigawa	0.04%	2500	1001		34
Kenny Perry	0.01%	10000	1001		68
Kirk Triplett	0.01%	10000	751		77
Lee Janzen	0.00%	10000	2001		72
Mark Calcavecchia	0.00%	10000	4001		72
Mark Hensby	0.01%	10000	401		57
Matt Gogel	0.20%	500	101		19
Michael Wright	0.05%	2000	151		19
Miguel Angel Jimenez	3.00%	33	34	0.10%	7	-0.1	BetMGM: 33/1, 5pl, 1/5
Mike Weir	0.13%	769	201		27
Padraig Harrington	3.96%	25	17		27
Paul Goydos	0.03%	3333	401		35
Paul Stankowski	0.05%	2000	351		43
Retief Goosen	2.36%	42	21		8
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.05%	2000	301		35
Richard Green	0.54%	185	91		8
Robert Karlsson	0.01%	10000	301		19
Rod Pampling	0.02%	5000	301		52
Rory Sabbatini	0.01%	10000	71		14
Scott Dunlap	0.00%	10000	351		52
Scott McCarron	0.00%	10000	1001		68
Scott Parel	0.02%	5000	401		35
Soren Kjeldsen	2.75%	36	30		27
Stephen Ames	0.71%	141	51		35
Stephen Gallacher	0.03%	3333	101		52
Steve Allan	0.95%	105	51		14
Steve Flesch	0.05%	2000	251		8
Steve Stricker	0.65%	154	34
Steven Alker	9.49%	11	11	0.40%	14	-0.4	William Hill: 9/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stewart Cink	26.43%	3.8	3.25		5
Stuart Appleby	0.01%	10000	401		24
Tag Ridings	0.22%	455	111		60
Thongchai Jaidee	0.67%	149	41		35
Tim O'Neal	0.06%	1667	251		43
Tim Petrovic	0.03%	3333	351		35
Tom Lehman	0.00%	10000	2501		43
Tom Pernice	0.00%	10000	1001		14
Tommy Gainey	1.09%	92	42		8
Vijay Singh	0.76%	132	76		65
Woody Austin	0.00%	10000	4001		71
Y.E. Yang	1.04%	96	41		14
Zach Johnson	27.16%	3.7	6	12.60%	5	0	Boyle Sports: 5/1, 6pl, 1/5

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Cejka	2.29%	44	34		18
Angel Cabrera	1.10%	91	67		64
Ben Crane	1.98%	51	34		1
Bernhard Langer	2.68%	37	34		30
Bo Van Pelt	1.03%	97	67		46
Bob Estes	0.31%	323	301		69
Boo Weekley	0.84%	119	71		2
Brian Gay	0.74%	135	101		30
Cameron Percy	2.63%	38	34		18
Chad Campbell	0.07%	1429	351		18
Charlie Wi	1.03%	97	51		6
Chris DiMarco	0.12%	833	351		18
Colin Montgomerie	0.87%	115	76		30
Corey Pavin	0.03%	3333	351		77
Darren Clarke	1.65%	61	67	0.20%	11	-0.2	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Duval	0.50%	200	126		11
David Toms	1.25%	80	56		30
Dicky Pride	1.22%	82	91	0.10%	56	-0.1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doug Barron	1.38%	72	51		46
Ernie Els	3.79%	26	21		6
Fred Couples	1.19%	84	81
Fred Funk	0.01%	10000	1001		69
Freddie Jacobson	2.21%	45	41		30
Gene Sauers	0.44%	227	201		18
Glen Day	0.08%	1250			64
Greg Chalmers	0.81%	123	91		56
Heath Slocum	0.42%	238	201		46
J.J. Henry	0.19%	526	351		56
Jason Caron	1.51%	66	51		30
Jay Haas	0.10%	1000	351		18
Jeff Maggert	0.32%	313	301		46
Jerry Kelly	1.68%	60	51		67
Joe Durant	0.43%	233	126		46
John Daly	0.09%	1111	351
Justin Leonard	1.94%	52	46		18
Ken Duke	0.28%	357	301		30
Ken Tanigawa	0.77%	130	111		30
Kenny Perry	0.39%	256	301	0.10%	46	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kirk Triplett	0.38%	263	201		69
Lee Janzen	0.07%	1429			69
Mark Calcavecchia	0.00%	10000	1001		76
Mark Hensby	0.49%	204	151		56
Matt Gogel	1.16%	86	67		30
Michael Wright	0.75%	133	81		18
Miguel Angel Jimenez	3.08%	32	34	0.10%	18	-0.1	BetMGM: 33/1, 5pl, 1/5
Mike Weir	1.00%	100	91		11
Padraig Harrington	3.50%	29	23		30
Paul Goydos	0.62%	161	151		56
Paul Stankowski	0.75%	133	126		30
Retief Goosen	2.73%	37	23		18
Ricardo Gonzalez	0.74%	135	111		46
Richard Green	1.65%	61	61		2
Robert Karlsson	0.53%	189	111		11
Rod Pampling	0.59%	169	126		75
Rory Sabbatini	0.45%	222	56		6
Scott Dunlap	0.07%	1429	151		56
Scott McCarron	0.13%	769	301		30
Scott Parel	0.53%	189	126		30
Soren Kjeldsen	2.94%	34	29		18
Stephen Ames	1.76%	57	41		56
Stephen Gallacher	0.66%	152	81		69
Steve Allan	2.00%	50	41		30
Steve Flesch	0.78%	128	91		46
Steve Stricker	1.78%	56	34
Steven Alker	5.07%	20	15		6
Stewart Cink	8.01%	12	7		11
Stuart Appleby	0.39%	256	151		46
Tag Ridings	1.27%	79	71		30
Thongchai Jaidee	1.77%	56	34		2
Tim O'Neal	0.74%	135	111		30
Tim Petrovic	0.62%	161	126		46
Tom Lehman	0.04%	2500	1001		64
Tom Pernice	0.20%	500	301		18
Tommy Gainey	2.15%	47	34		11
Vijay Singh	1.91%	52	51		67
Woody Austin	0.12%	833	1001		56
Y.E. Yang	2.08%	48	41		6
Zach Johnson	8.14%	12	10		11

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Zach Johnson	27.16%	3.7	6	12.60%	5	0	Boyle Sports: 5/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Steven Alker	9.49%	11	11	0.40%	14	-2	William Hill: 9/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Ernie Els	5.08%	20	20	0.10%	2	2.6	Boyle Sports: 18/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Darren Clarke	1.65%	61	67	0.20%	11	-1	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Miguel Angel Jimenez	3.08%	32	34	0.10%	18	-1	BetMGM: 33/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Dicky Pride	1.22%	82	91	0.10%	56	-1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Kenny Perry	0.39%	256	301	0.10%	46	-1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and and the six advised each-way plays FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays will be posted on Tuesday afternoon once odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised. FRL plays will be posted on Wednesday or one day prior to the start of the event.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.