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For a venue so venerated in American golf it is slightly surprising that Pinehurst is hosting only its fifth major this week. A classic design by Donald Ross, created during the Golden Age, it suffered from a widely disliked redesign by Robert Trent Jones in the early 1070s, one which the respected duo of Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw reversed prior to the return to the US Open in 2014. As is common in recent renovations the ethos was a return to the course’s original principles which meant widened fairways and an emphasis on high quality approach work. The nasty Bermuda grass rough was done away with and replaced with hard pan sand and scrub. The potential for a terrible lie is high but it will need a poor drive to introduce that threat. Instead, the championship ought to be decided by who hits the finest shots into greens that are famous for their run offs. Sloppy approaches won’t just dribble away, they will be kicked further from the target, creating really difficult scrambles. Martin Kaymer did almost nothing wrong in winning by eight shots 10 years ago and his caddie Craig Connelly discussed the course with the BBC. “It’s quite a generous course off the tee but it’s an approach shot golf course,” he said. “(You need to) have your distance control sorted and (hit the ball) in the right spot on the green because there are only small portions that you can hit to. “Run offs can be fatal. You can hit a decent shot where on any other course you can easily get it up and down. But at Pinehurst the ball runs off for miles and you are all of a sudden short sided.” In one sense Kaymer ought to have been in trouble because he’s never had a great short game – but the shaved grass around the greens allowed him to lag putt instead of chip. One way or another the short game had better be good and what Kaymer had in common with Payne Stewart (winner in 1999) and Michael Campbell (winner in 2005) is that he putted sensationally.
Angles to consider 1/ Form Eight of the last 10 US Open champions had finished top 20 on one of there two previous starts. 2/ Major form Eight of the last 10 champions had finished top 20 in one of the two previous majors. 3/ Pinehurst Eight of the last 10 champions (that number again) had ranked top 20 for Strokes Gained Off the Tee in one of their two previous starts and let’s take heed of what the experts say: approach work is going to really matter this week. We'll also take note of short game stats.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Bryson DeChambeau The 2020 US Open champion has been superb in the majors this year. He was the leader/co-leader through 36 holes at the Masters and then only Xander Schauffele bettered him in the PGA Championship. He ranked first off the tee at Augusta and second at Valhalla. His approach work wasn’t at that level but he has played well with approaches in recent majors, ranking 14th at last year’s PGA Championship and seventh at the 2022 Open. His short game and putting never looks anything other than awkward but it was in fine fettle at Valhalla. Tyrrell Hatton The Englishman finished a career-best ninth at the Masters and ranked ninth off the tee at Valhalla in the PGA Championship. He was 18th last week on LIV and fifth in his third last start. He also ranked fourth for his work around the greens at Augusta. Sepp Straka The Austrian was 16th at the Masters, one of seven top 20s in his last nine starts – and the last two have both been fifth. He was also second in the Open last year and seventh in the PGA Championship. Moreover his numbers are good: sixth off the tee last week at Memorial, top 10 in four of his last five cuts made for approach, top 10 in is last two starts around the green and a decent putting week at Muirfield Village.
Tips: 1-2; +20.00pts 1pt e.w. Bryson DeChambeau at 20/1 (BetMGM, BetUK, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 1st 1pt e.w. Tyrrell Hatton at 55/1 (Skybet, 888Sport, William Hill Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 26th 1pt e.w. Sepp Straka at 70/1 (BF Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12) 56th
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