The four-week Florida Swing has been split into two halves in terms of field quality.
All the big guns rolled into town for the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players Championship.
But now, as was the case with the opening Honda Classic, many of the household names have chosen this week as a good time to take a break.
Thankfully, that’s not a uniform decision and this year’s Valspar can still boast a trio of major winners at the front of the betting - Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth and Matt Fitzpatrick.
And, of course, there’s also the double defending champion, Sam Burns.
Burns has won this title with 17-under for the last two years and warmed up for his attempt at a hat-trick with tied 35th at Sawgrass.
Before Burns became the main man at the Valspar, international players had enjoyed an excellent record at the course.
England’s Paul Casey also won back-to-back in 2018 and 2019 while South African Retief Goosen and Korean KJ Choi are also two-time winners.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a Florida track by name but perhaps not by nature.
It’s far more undulating than a typical Sunshine State layout although it does have the standard Bermuda greens.
One quirk of the 7,340 yard course is that the par of 71 is created by four par fives but five par threes.
One thing to note is that winds are predicted to get fairly strong for the final three rounds so expect scoring to be tougher.
Angles to consider
1/ Course style
Given the undulations at the Copperhead Course, it’s no surprise that some good correlating form can be found with other layouts that have plenty of changes of elevation, notably Augusta National (Masters) and TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic).
2/ Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
Burns was ranked 4th and 5th in this category in his two wins while Casey was 1st and 6th. Breaking it down, Approach and Around The Green were more important than off the tee.
3/ Par 5s
Scoring on the four long holes is a key component when looking at how past champions conquered this par 71. Burns was in the top two for Par 5 Scoring in both his wins and seven of the last eight champions ranked in the top three.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Denny McCarthy
McCarthy was ninth on his course debut in 2019 and has made both cuts since. A sixth at TPC Deere Run last year adds further belief that this style of course suits. We know he’s one of the best putters around but gaining over five strokes tee-to-green at Sawgrass last week suggests everything is in place. McCarthy was 13th at The Players, 14th at Riviera and also in the top four at Pebble Beach so he’s in good form.
Adam Hadwin
Hadwin claimed his only PGA Tour win on this course (2017) and has since finished 12th (2018) and 7th (2022). He ranked 4th for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green at Sawgrass last week and is 40th in that category for the season. As for Par 5s, he’s 27th in the current standings.
Gary Woodland
The 2019 US Open champion is another former winner here and played well again last year when 22nd. Woodland is strong in the wind which bodes well given the forecast and he’s been in the top 10 for SG: Tee To Green in two of his last three events. One of those was ninth at Riviera. He'll also enjoy having four Par 5s to go at.
Tips 0-3; -6.00pts
1pt e.w. Denny McCarthy at 28/1 (Coral 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 19th
1.25pts e.w. Adam Hadwin at 20/1 (Coral 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) mc
0.75pts e.w. Gary Woodland at 40/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Hills 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 45th
