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The 123rd US Open heads to the west coast and a first visit to Los Angeles Country Club. It’s a George Thomas design which hints at an echo of the three traditional courses which annually host the PGA Tour – Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach and Riviera (which Thomas also created). But there are also critical differences. Those three layouts have Poa Annua on the greens while LA has almost entirely taken that out of the equation and is bentgrass. A bigger twist is the grass on fairways and in the rough – it is Bermuda this week and the USGA have let it grow high in some areas around the greens. That’s a bit of a fudge because this is a golf course that should play as a fast-running, open track but they are protecting par and long grass is their default position. It will be possible to run balls into some greens and chasing them off the tee will also be a possibility with expected fast running fairways, but position will be essential because sometimes those running entries are narrow while the bunkers protect sometimes shallow greens or ones with significant run offs. The other big factor this week is the card which features five par-3s but if that suggests an immediate reference to the par-3 rankings maybe think again because one is 284 yards and the other 290 – and the shortest par-4, which the bold can attack from the tee, is 330 yards. Nor are these the only yardage curiosities: the par-3 15th is 124 yards and might play well below 100 yards at least once in the week. And the final four par-4s on the card are set at 507, 542, 520 and 492 yards. “First impressions? I don’t think the scoring will be very good,” said Shane Lowry after visiting in February. He added: “A lot of blind tee shots. The fairways are wide but they camber off and there will be Bermuda rough, where the ball sits down.” Tommy Fleetwood also made the trip and he said: “It’s very much a US Open course. You’re going to have to use every asset of your game, particularly drive it well and be very patient. There’s a lot of variety in the par 3s.” Defending champion Matt Fitzpatrick referenced the barranca – the creek which runs across the property and often comes into play for errant shots. ““I like the look of it, it’s very rugged,” he said. “The big thing is around the greens. It looks like you can’t miss them, it’s going to be really difficult to make up and downs.” Adam Scott added a note of warning: “The greens are really the defence. The guy who has his irons under control is going to have a big advantage. I hope there won’t be anything contrived out there.”
Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained Nine of the last 10 winners ranked top 20 for Off the Tee for the season heading into the event – and the exception, Koepka, did so when he successfully defended the trophy. Seven of the 10 ranked top 20 for Tee to Green – Koepka had poor figures both times, the other exception was Martin Kaymer whose poor short game numbers kept him out at 42nd and he was able to putt from off the green at Pinehurst. 2/ Quality The last 10 winners were all ranked in the world’s top 30. It might be worth giving that some leeway this year owing to LIV player ranking’s being a little awry but it still stands that the elite usually shine. In addition nine of the 10 had a top three finish for the year so had shown strong form – the exception was Jon Rahm who would have had a top three had he not been pulled out of the Memorial Tournament when six clear with 18 holes to play. 3/ Championship form Each of the last 10 winners had already finished top 25 in the tournament. 4/ Course dynamics Those two long par-3s, potentially the short par-4, the par-5s, the long closing par-4s that are more or less short par-5s – long approach shots will be tested this week. Remember, too, Scott’s words.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Jon Rahm Ranks third for SG Tee to Green, 16th Off the Tee and third Approach. He’s the world No. 2 and he’s won four times this season. He’s won and finished third in the US Open – and he did both in California (he has five wins in the state in all). His approach work is not impact by long distances either – he ranks top 40 for Approach proximity in all increments between 125 and 300, and top 20 for five of the seven (for what it’s worth Scottie Scheffler dips off past 200 yards). Viktor Hovland He ranks 11 for SG Tee to Green, seventh Off the Tee and 10th for Approach. His Around the Greens numbers are poor but he actually fares okay in this category in majors. He’s the World No. 5 and won the Memorial Tournament last time out when crediting his improved game plans and short game for helping him play well on tough layouts – he has finished top seven in the last three majors. He finished T12th at Pebble Beach and T13th at Winged Foot in the tournament in 2019 and 2020. His numbers also hold up above 200 yards (13th best for all approaches over that distance). Tyrrell Hatton He ranked seventh for SG Tee to Green, 11th Off the Tee and 17th Approach. He’s the World No. 14 and was second at Sawgrass and third at both Quail Hollow and in Canada last week. He was sixth at Shinnecock Hills in 2018 and T21st at Pebble Beach a year later.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 2pt win Jon Rahm at 10/1 (Skybet, BetVictor, BetFred, Boylesport) 10th 1pt e.w. Viktor Hovland at 16/1 (bet365, Skybet, 888Sport, BetFred, Boylesport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 19th 1pt e.w. Tyrrell Hatton at 30/1 (bet365, BetFred, Boylesport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 27th
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