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As with the Honda Classic at PGA National, so it is with this week’s Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. The PGA Tour’s new schedule, packed with elite gatherings in the first three months of the year, has forced the hand of the big names and as a consequence the field quality at lesser events takes a significant hit. Where once the week before the Masters might be deemed something of a necessary warm-up by a decent chunk of the likely contenders next week at Augusta National, now they have energy to conserve. This is the sixth time that the course and tournament have acted as the final act before the opening major of the year and the course does attempt to replicate the test somewhat. With a par of 72 and a yardage of 7,438 it looks a bit alike on paper, the shaved run-offs and trees help too. Then again the grass is Bermuda rather than bent, the pressure is nowhere near as intense on this Greg Norman designed test and it’s tighter too, with Phil Mickelson noting: “It’s very windy and tight. Can’t really unleash drivers the way you want to at Augusta.” Charley Hoffman added: “It gives you plenty of room out there but if you start hitting it un-solid you can find the native area very quickly,” he said. “If that happens, you’re just trying to get it back in play and hopefully have a putt for par or make a bogey and get out.” Past winner Kevin Chappell explained: “I was third in Greens in Regulation and it’s such a difficult scrambling course because of the wind and how severe some of the runoffs are around the greens. It’s important to get the ball on the green when you can and not necessarily force a shot in there to try to get a birdie look because there’s not many out there.” Rickie Fowler concurred, saying: “There’s some tough, but fun second shots out here.” Those latter thoughts are worth keeping in mind. Angles to consider 1/ Approach work Let’s add to what Chappell and Fowler have said. The former was not only third for GIR but second for Strokes Gained Approach and the two men who succeeded him – Andrew Landry and Corey Conners – ranked first for both categories. Before SG stats were collected another two winners topped GIR. The last two winners – Jordan Spieth and JJ Spaun – were not so strong in approach work but Spieth was fourth for SG Approach and Spaun 16th for GIR. 2/ Approach work in the lead-up Did those stripers drop any hints? They did actually. Four of the last five tournament winners ranked top six for GIR in the last strokeplay start before their win. The exception missed the cut but ranked fifth in his start before that. 3/ Putting Average Traditional stats tend to be poo-pooed these days but PA does have something of a relationship with SG Approach – it suggests approaches were fine enough to set up fine birdie opportunities (or that the putter was warm enough to make up for conservative approaches). Whatever, the last four winners on the course (Davis Riley won here on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020) all needed less than 1.60 putts per GIR and every winner went lower than 1.70. 4/ Course form As noted last year, in recent times the winners have dropped hints that they liked the test. Spieth, Chappell and Hoffman had already finished second, Jimmy Walker third, Martin Laird ninth, Steven Bowditch had been second at halfway the year before his win, and even Conners T26th in his only previous starts. Selections Aaron Rai Second for GIR in his last start when 19th at TPC Sawgrass and he ranks 15th for the season. His finest putting effort came in Texas, when he topped PA (1.60) in the Houston Open. And he made a Conners-like course debut: 29th when third after 18 holes and seventh after 54 holes. Nicolai Hojgaard Second last week in the Dominican Republic when second for GIR and needing 1.66 putts per GIR. No course form but he has finished fourth on Greg Norman’s Earth Course at Jumeirah. Both his DP World Tour wins saw him lots of green and he putted in fine fashion during the second. Erik Van Rooyen The South African topped the GIR stats at Innisbook in his penultimate start and he made a nice tournament debut last year when T14th – indeed he was fourth at halfway. He won the Barracuda Championship holing many putts (1.55) and repeated that kind of flatstick form at the Amex this year. Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Aaron Rai at 50/1 (SkyBet, P Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 28th 1pt e.w. Nicolai Hojgaard at 50/1 (W Hill, SkyBet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 28th 1pt e.w. Erik Van Rooyen at 80/1 (W Hill, P Power, BF Sportsbook, SkyBet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc
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