Those craving a ‘proper’ PGA Tour golf tournament finally get their wish this week after the run of silly-season events and last week’s reduced field, no-cut Sentry Tournament of Champions.
The Sony Open is the first-full field offering since the RSM Classic was won on November 20 by Adam Svensson.
As usual, it’s part of the two-week Hawaiian Swing and, once more, is played at Waialae Golf Club in Honolulu.
The Seth Raynor design which opened in 1927 is a flat piece of property measuring in at just over 7,000 yards and falls into that category of fiddly courses played on small bermuda greens.
It’s therefore a complete contrast to last week’s venue, the Plantation Course. That par 73 featured wide-open fairways, rolling terrain and vast putting surfaces.
However, despite the major differences, six players have won both events since the turn of the century.
That’s a sign that good golfers can triumph anywhere and a reminder not to discount last week’s form as irrelevant. In fact, history suggests it’s quite an advantage to have teed it up in the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Hideki Matsuyama took the title last year with -23 and seven of the last 10 editions have been won with -20 or lower.
That’s likely to be the case again this year with the weather far calmer than it was when Cameron Smith beat Brendan Steele in a play-off after both had managed just -11 in 2020.
Angles to consider
1/ Played in Hawaii the previous week
The numbers continue to go in favour of those who shook off the Festive rust by playing in the Sentry Tournament of Champions. The latest count shows that 17 of the last 24 Sony champions had competed in the other Hawaii event a week earlier. Narrow the study period and it’s eight in the last nine.
2/ Form on correlating courses
There are plenty to choose from. They include Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), The Seaside Course (RSM Classic), Colonial (Charles Schwab), El Camaelon (Mayakoba), TPC Southwind (St Jude) and Port Royal (Bermuda).
3/ Strong putting
The last six winners have all ranked in the top six for Putting Average. Using the more modern Strokes Gained stats, the first two home last year ranked 1st and 3rd in that category. Cam Smith was also 1st for SGP when winning in 2020.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Billy Horschel
Billy Horschel was 7th here two years ago and has a bunch of form on correlating courses: five top 10s at TPC Southwind and top fives at both El Camaleon and Harbour Town. He looked very rusty in the opening round at the Plantation Course last week when firing a 76 but found his chops with weekend laps of 64-69. He ranks 30th in Putting Average this season.
Brian Harman
Harman reeled off four straight top 20s here from 2015 including fourth in 2018 and has always looked a likely winner of the event. Recent second places on two correlating tracks - the Seaside Course and El Camaleon - and a third at TPC Southwind in August suggest this could be his time. Like Horschel, he played last week, finishing 16th.
Adam Svensson
After a rough Saturday, Svensson finished with a 5-under closer at the Sentry TOC last week. That was his first start since a breakthrough win at the RSM Classic at correlating Sea Island in November. He putted these greens well (12th SG: Putting) when 7th in last year’s Sony Open and his price looks too big.
Tips 0-3; -6.00pts
1pt e.w. Billy Horschel at 30/1 (Betfair, Hills, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc
1.5pts e.w. Brian Harman at 18/1 (General 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 32nd
0.5pts e.w. Adam Svensson at 70/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 41st
