Golf fans are being spoiled at the moment after the string of big-money designated events in recent months.
And now here comes The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass - a tournament described down the years as “the fifth major”.
With the actual majors now coming monthly - April (Masters), May (USPGA), June (US Open) and July (Open Championship) - the scheduling of Sawgrass in March after it was held previously in May (2007-2018) seems perfect.
One difference this year is that we don’t have the defending champion on site. That would be Cameron Smith, who has gone to LIV.
However, maybe he wouldn’t have been one to back anyway given that no-one has ever won this tournament in back-to-back years since it was first played for in 1974.
Form from the last three runnings on the 7,256-yard par 72 is obviously worth a little more as they all took place in March when conditions are usually firmer and faster.
Rory McIlroy won the title in 2019 with 16-under while Justin Thomas triumphed with 14-under in 2021 (2020 was cancelled after round one due to the pandemic). Smith shot 13-under last year.
All those three champions took victory by a single stroke so expect it to be tight.
As for the weather - a crucial element, especially with water lurking at the infamous island green 17th hole - it will be around 8-10mph over the first two days but calmer for most of Saturday and Sunday. It could just pick up at the very end of Sunday’s closer though.
Jon Rahm and McIlroy are vying for favouritism with both around 9/1. That’s just in front of 11/1 Scottie Scheffler.
Angles to consider
1/ Florida form
The stats show that nine of the last 11 winners had posted a top 20 in their previous Florida start. Cam Smith added to that record last year; he’d been 11th in the WGC-Workday Championship on his previous outing in the Sunshine State. The stat makes sense given that there are many common traits among Florida tracks.
2/ Class
Cameron Smith was World No. 10 when he held off the field to win last year. He would go on to win the Open Championship a few months later. Before him, six of the previous nine Sawgrass champions were already major winners. The odd unlikely winner pops up but backing class players is the best route to profit.
3/ Strokes Gained: Approach
If March form is worth more than May form at Sawgrass, SG: Approach is the standout stat. The three winners since the event moved back to the third month of the year ranked 5th, 5th and 6th for SG: Approach.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected:
Jason Day
The Aussie is a former winner here and also has three other top eights, the most recent in March 2019. Day ranks in the top 25 for Strokes Gained: Approach this season and warmed up for Sawgrass with a 10th place in last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. That was his fourth top 10 in a row, a run that started at Torrey Pines, so he looks in great form right now and ticks all the boxes.
Tyrrell Hatton
Hatton was in the hunt for victory at Bay Hill last week, eventually finishing fourth after setting himself up for a Sunday challenge with a third-round 66. He also has a second and a fourth in Arnie’s event while he was 13th at Sawgrass last year after grinding it out well on the weekend. The Englishman ranked 10th for SG: Approach at Bay Hill and 4th in that category when sixth in Phoenix two starts earlier.
Matt Fitzpatrick
A second Englishman in our staking plan this week and deservedly so. The US Open champion took 14th at Bay Hill last week and that gave him a seventh top 15 in eight starts in Florida since the start of 2020. That run includes a ninth at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 when he was second on the leaderboard after 36 holes. He looks to have the game and patience to be a big contender here.
Tips 1-2; +0.60pts
1pt e.w. Jason Day at 28/1 (Betfair 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12) 19th
1pt e.w. Tyrrell Hatton at 28/1 (Betfair 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12) 2nd
1pt e.w. Matt Fitzpatrick at 28/1 (Betfair 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12) mc
