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The 105th PGA Championship returns to Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York, a three-time US Open venue in the 20th century and now about to become a three-time host of this event in the 21st century after the 2003 and 2013 editions. The first of those was a real throwback to the PGA Championship’s habit of tossing up an absolute shock winner – partly, at least, a consequence of it then being the fourth of the majors in the year, when the world’s best were a little tired and had peaked at the Open. In moving to May the championship has remained the fourth most-prestigious of the majors but the field has not mentally peaked – so it’s been a fine move granting the sport four genuine highlights. The East Course at Oak Hill is the test, a par 70 on bent grass greens at around 7,400 yards according to daily yardages. A Donald Ross original design, Robert Trent Jones and the Fazio family have been involved with renovations and Andrew Green completed the most recent one which is deemed to have rejuvenated the Ross dynamics (albeit with extra distance). Green has removed as many as 600 trees to open up what was a very wooded, tree-lined course, so much so that there was a touch of Valderrama in the way balls could find fairways and still have a tree in the way of the approach. No longer. Bunkers have been made more punishing and the rough is green and deep – partly by design partly because of the early, damp spring conditions in the north east. It seems that, with temperatures on the cold side, balls will not fly long distance or kick on any great length after landing on soft fairways. Add in the already long yardages and big hitting might be an advantage but shorting hitting will make life very hard.
Angles to consider 1/ Location The north-east of the States is known for the wild nature of its sports fans. They particularly like to either go nuts for who they like or turn on those they don’t. Timid golfers suffer, bold ones thrive. 2/ Stats Quite how much validity we can attach to the 2003 and 2013 editions of this championship at Oak Hill is a moot point – the game has changed significantly in the last two decades, as have the stats, of course. There is also the redesign to take into consideration. But, for what it is worth, greens in regulation mattered in those two tournaments with the top two finishers ending the week high in the rankings for find the green. 3/ Redesign The length looks like it will be a factor, not only because of the card but also the damp, maybe even wet, conditions. And while majors always feature worries about the thick rough it does look lush, aided by that cool, damp weather. That makes life difficult for all but the strongest players. 4/ Ross Other Ross courses that have featured on the PGA Tour in recent times: East Lake, Sedgefield, Detroit regularly; Aronimink, Plainfield, Pinehurst less so.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Tony Finau He hits the ball plenty fair enough and in the last year has won four times. Now he’s got that element of his game sussed might he return to that old habit of enjoying the majors? In 2018 through 2021 he landed 10 top 15s in 15 starts but has now gone five without one. There’s hope because he’s played three majors in New York, twice finishing in the top eight. In nearby New Jersey he has a win and a second in The Northern Trust. Ross form? He finished T16th at Plainfield, eighth at Aronimink and won at Detroit last year. He’s 3-for-6 at landing a top 10 at East Lake. Dustin Johnson A back injury prompted a slow start to the year but he won last week on LIV and might he emulate Brooks Koepka in following a win there with contention in a major? On Ross, he was 7-for-12 at finishing top 10 at East Lake, he finished first and eighth at Plainfield, fourth at Pinehurst and eighth here at Oak Hill in 2013. He’s also 7-for-10 at recording top 10s in New York with two wins. And he’s long. Patrick Reed Lacks the length of the other two but he was fourth at the Masters, one of three top four finishes in his last five starts. He’s a Ross winner at Sedgefield and he loves New York and New Jersey: he’s 4-for-5 at landing top 20s in the former (winner at Bethpage) and 4-for-7 at the latter (with a win at Liberty National).
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1.25pt e.w. Tony Finau at 22/1 (PaddyPower 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10) 72nd 1pt e.w. Dustin Johnson at 25/1 (bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Betfred, Boylesport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 55th 0.75pt e.w. Patrick Reed at 80/1 (bet365, Skybet, Betfred, Boylesport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 18th
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