|
A second edition of the Mexico Open – on the PGA Tour at least. It’s actually been played since 1946 and had plenty of decent winners (Robert Di Vicenzo, Tony Lema, Lee Trevino, Billy Casper, David Graham) up until the mid-1980s whereupon it disappeared. Returning in 1990 it was something of a quirk, getting decent names winning it again albeit a notch down in quality (Stewart Cink, Frank Nobilo, Fred Funk). Into the 21st century it was briefly on the Challenge Tour, then the Nationwide (now Korn Ferry) Tour. Then last year it burst into the big time and had an immediate impact seeing Jon Rahm claim victory over Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama and Brandon Wu. The field was not the greatest and it remains that way this year because designated events are hitting the mid ranking tournaments. The course at host Vidanta Villarta is a par-71 at 7,456 yards with paspalum grass everywhere. There are certain similarities with El Camaleon – another Mexican course that has been used on the PGA Tour – in that the layout is coastal and designed by Greg Norman. But where El Camaleon has tended to favour straight-hitters (to some extent because elite players tended not to play there so the big hitters who did play where somewhat wilder with their drives), Vidanta Villarta was typically talked of as being a long track. Camilo Villegas said last year that “You’re going to have to hit your mid- to long-irons pretty good. This golf course is very long, it could be one of the longest golf courses we play on the PGA Tour and you’re definitely going to have some long irons coming to the greens.” Brendon Todd, a winner at El Camaleon, added: “Length is definitely an advantage.” But he also insisted: “You’re going to see guys of all types play well just because whenever there’s wind and receptive greens and no rough, anybody can access any pin from anywhere.” Patrick Reed appeared to concur, saying: “There’s some pretty wide fairways out there and you still have to set up and hit a quality golf shot, because even though they’re wide, you have to play from certain angles into these greens.” The forecast is not for a lot of wind which suggests the field can attack the course but beware any changes to the weather.
Angles to consider 1/ Stats Nine of the top 10 ranked 11th or better for Greens in Regulation and eight of the 10 were top 16 for Driving Distance (seven were in both lists). That suggests that using length to hit the greens works. Eight of the top 10 gained three strokes on the field Off the Tee. 2/ Paspalum Rahm didn’t have a sparkling El Camaleon record but he did have a top 10 finish there (just). He was the standout class act, of course. Two of the runners-up (Kitayama and Finau) had won on Paspalum and Wu has a third and seventh on it. Of others in the top 10 David Lipsky had five top 10s in Asia on the grass, Alex Smalley and Aaron Wise has been second on it, while Davis Riley, Cameron Champ and Patrick Rodgers had top 10s. 3/ Greg Norman designs Rahm had already won twice on another Norman design (Jumeirah), so too has Kitayama (Al Mouj). Riley also had (San Antonio). Finau had a third at the latter. And Wise had his second at El Camaleon.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Note: Jon Rahm looks hard to beat this week, Tony Finau is part of the reckoning too. Therefore there are four picks with a reduced stake. Will Gordon His last experience of a Norman track was also on paspalum – and he was third. That’s his best finish this season but he did enjoy the first round last week, carding a 63 with his partner in the Zurich Classic. He’s also been 13th at Norman’s The Grove in Tennessee. Ranks 28th for Distance, 40th for Off the Tee and 8th for GIR so looks a nice fit Patton Kizzire His stats aren’t great but he’s a winner at El Camaleon (Norman tick, paspalum tick). He’s also been ninth at Norman’s San Antonio Oaks. Tenth at El Camaleon this season, the same result at Innisbrook and he carded a 65 at Harbour Town. Jimmy Walker The veteran has found a bit of form with 22nd in the Texas Open and 25th in the Heritage (when a three shot halfway leader). Ranks a slightly surprising 41st for Distance. A three-time top four finisher on the Oaks including a win in 2015. He’s been sixth on Paspalum in Kuala Lumpur. Brent Grant Ranks 22nd for Distance and 21st Off the Tee. He’s also a winner at The Grove (and also has a fifth there). Eighth on paspalum at Corales Puntacana earlier this year and not too long ago. Good stats, Norman link, grass form and big price.
Tips: 0-4; -4.00pts 0.5pt e.w. Will Gordon at 66/1 (Skybet, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 24th 0.5pt e.w. Patton Kizzire at 100/1 (Unibet, BetUK 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) mc 0.5pt e.w. Jimmy Walker at 150/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 15th 0.5pt e.w. Brent Grant at 200/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc
|
