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It’s the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village and that means – it’s Jack’s week. The great Jack Nicklaus dotes on this course (and this event) like a grandfather with his children, and a few years ago he decided it needed another tweak. Because Nicklaus has never been shy of reacting to the changes the modern game demands of designers – he’ll happily take tee boxes backwards to ensure mid-iron are required for approaches, he’ll add speed to the greens, he’ll water the rough and let it grow. A key design ethic of Nicklaus has always been that he gives room from the tee but it’s a temptation: one side will always be the smart side. It is also said that his tracks are “second shot courses” because bunkers, angled greens and more of that rough – plus usually raised greens – test distance control and line of attack. “I’m pretty sure Jack’s courses are second-shot courses,” agreed Justin Thomas. “You have to hit it well. The fairways are pretty generous out here. The greens have some severity to them, so you need to have control of your ball, putting them in the correct spots.” But then Rory McIlroy added this coda after the rehaul: “I think what’s happened here is everyone is just now playing from the same spot with their second shot. It’s not an easy driving golf course by any means, but everyone is hitting to the same spot. I guess there’s no different strategies off the tee, it’s just sort of everyone goes and does this and then they go from there. So it’s sort of hard for, you look how condensed the field is, it’s hard to separate yourself when a design is like that.” Jon Rahm added: “The redesign has made it at least one to two strokes harder.” He also said that when the greens are soft “a good iron player can take advantage of it”. The tournament has not always been claimed by the big names. Back in 2005 Bart Bryant surprised everyone, as did Carl Pettersson a year later. David Lingmerth and William McGirt were also back-to-back unlikely champs in 2015-2016. But Tiger Woods loved it (five wins), Jon Rahm should have won it twice (he led by six with one round to play when forced out by a positive Covid test) and Patrick Cantlay has won twice (he took advantage of Rahm’s misfortune).
Angles to consider 1/ SG Approach We know Nicklaus designs second shot courses and the stats back it up here. Last year’s winner gained a touch under five strokes on the greens, second was nearly eight. In 2021 the one-two gained six shots. In 2022 the winner was up five on the field, the runner-up 10. In 2019 first was up seven, second up 11. Bryson DeChambeau in 2018 is the outlier: he gained only 3.683 reserving his biggest gains for the greens. 2/ Course form Billy Horschel won last year off and he already had five top 15s in his record book. Cantlay has five top sevens. But it’s not just about who likes it here as who doesn’t. Cameron Smith won’t be here this week but is a good example: ahead of last year he had no top 60 in six visits, he opened in style (67-69) but the long term difficulties returned at the weekend (72-77). 3/ Nicklaus designs Horschel dropped a hint when second at Concession the year before his win. Rahm had been second at Glen Abbey before his win and near-miss (and has also been second at Sherwood). Cantlay also loves Harbour Town and has since won at Sherwood. Collin Morikawa, who won the Workday Open at Muirfield Village, has also won at Montreux and The Concession.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Jason Day The Aussie ranks 22nd for SG Approach this season and he is undoubtedly in fine form in 2023 with eight top 20s in 11 starts including victory at the Byron Nelson a few weeks ago. Forgive his missed cut in the PGA – he was emotionally exhausted after the win. He’s also got a fourth and a seventh in his last three starts on the course and is a Jack Nicklaus course winner at Dove Mountain and Glen Abbey. Rickie Fowler The popular American is another playing well this season. In his case registering 13 cuts made in 15 strokeplay starts – and he has 11 top 20s in all. He was sixth last week at Colonial and he likes Muirfield Village. He’s a two-time runner-up and has five top 25 finishes in his last seven starts. He’s ninth this year for SG Approach. Adam Scott Another Aussie who has won on a Nicklaus track (Gleneagles) and has a good course record: 13 cuts made in 14 starts with a second in 2019 and another three top five finishes. He was fifth at Quail Hollow and eight at Craig Ranch in May. His approach stats have improved in recent weeks after a poor start for the year.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Jason Day at 28/1 (Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Rickie Fowler at 40/1 (Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 9th 1pt e.w. Adam Scott at 55/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 9th
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