The Masters Tournament remains the favourite of the four Majors for many golf fans and the excitement about this 87th edition is as strong as ever.
Once again, the stunning Augusta National in Georgia plays host, a course where punters know just about every shot having watched it year after year on television.
The good folk at The Masters love to tweak though and this year a new, longer tee box has been added to the famous Par 5 13th - “Azalea” - which lengthens the hole to 545 yards.
That means the course now has official yardage of 7,545 yards - 3,765 going out and 3,780 coming home.
In terms of the betting, three players have separated themselves at the top.
Since July 2021, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have fought it out to be World No.1.
All three have held the position at some point in 2023 but it’s Scheffler, the defending Masters champion, who goes into the event on top of the rankings this year.
He occupied that same slot last year which means two of the last three winners of the famous green jacket were World No.1s (Dustin Johnson the other in 2020).
Scheffler won with 10-under in 2022 and seven of the last 10 April Masters (Johnson’s 2020 win took place in November due to the pandemic) have been won with totals between 8-under and 13-under.
Four of the last five champions have been American, Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama the exception after scoring a one-shot win in 2021.
Angles to consider
1/ Course form
You’d expect that this would be a key predictor given that The Masters is the only Major played on the same course each year. And it certainly is. Seven of the last 10 champions had previously posted a top five at Augusta. Five of that bunch had either won or finished runner-up.
2/ Current form
Scheffler was in stunning form ahead of his victory last year and six of the last nine winners had already banked a win in that same season. Even closer to tee off, seven of the last 10 champions had made the top five in a strokeplay tournament in the same month of The Masters or the previous month.
3/ Strokes Gained: Approach
Augusta National is often referred to as a “second shot” golf course and most winners and contenders were high up in the SG: Approach charts (or previously Greens in Regulation before Strokes Gained metrics were introduced). Looking at the last two winners, Scheffler was ranked 6th for SG: Approach and Matsuyama 4th.
4/ Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Being creative around the greens, often from some distance away if approaches have rolled away down slopes is another key. These were the Strokes Gained: Around The Green rankings of the top seven finishers last year: 2, 1, 17, 4, 8, 7, 10. Matsuyama was 4th when he won in 2021.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Jason Day
The Aussie has compiled an excellent body of work at Augusta National: tied second, solo third, tied fifth, tied 10th and four other finishes between 20th and 28th. He returns this year showing some of his best form in a long time. In 2023 he’s yet to finish outside the top 20 in seven starts and last time out he made the quarter-finals of the WGC Match Play. On the stats, Day is 20th for Strokes Gained: Around The Green and 21st SG: Approach so he’s ticking every box.
Sungjae Im
From just three Masters appearances, Im has a tied second on debut in 2020 and a tied eighth last year. Twelve months ago he was first-round leader and third with a round to go. In the last couple of months the Korean has made the top six in both the Waste Management Phoenix Open and The Players Championship so has current form too. He lies 32nd for SG: Around The Green and 62nd (top third) on Approach.
Justin Rose
It’s been an impressive year so far for Rose, who ended a four-year victory drought by capturing the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in January and adding a sixth place at last month’s Players Championship. The Englishman is a two-time runner-up at Augusta National and has six top 10s in total, the most recent coming in 2021. Rose ranks 38th for SG: Approach this season and he was 4th for SG: Around The Green at Pebble and 14th in that category at Sawgrass.
Tips 0-3; -6.00pts
1.25pts e.w. Jason Day at 20/1 (Betfair 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12) 39th
1pt e.w. Sungjae Im at 28/1 (Betfair 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12) 16th
0.75pts e.w. Justin Rose at 50/1 (Betfair 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12) 16th
