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Might this be the last ever Honda Classic? That’s the word on the street with Honda definitely ending their association with the tournament, but what of its replacement, either as title sponsor or in the guise of a new event entirely? The problem is that this spot in the schedule now sits after two designated events (the Phoenix Open and Genesis Invitational) and right before another two (Bay Hill and the PLAYERS) so it makes a lot of sense for elite players to give it a swerve. And, in truth, they’ve pretty much been doing that for a while anyway, either because they needed to space out their schedule or because the course was not one they like (it’s not just tough but widely viewed a slog). The impact on the field this week is obvious: Sungjae Im is top ranked at 18 in the world, only eight of the top 50 play. That’s a huge difference to the last two weeks. In micro terms Keith Mitchell’s decision not to play says much: he’s played the event in each of the last five years and won it in 2019. He was loyal and dodged Riviera the week before, a course he liked. But when that event turned designated a tipping point was reached: he played Riviera last week, he rests this week. The Champion Course at PGA National hosts again and it is a Tom Fazio design that got a Jack Nicklaus overhaul in 2002 (updated since by the same man). It is a par 70 at 7,125 yards with a lot of water and blustery winds a given. The run of holes from 15 through 17 are known as the Bear Trap and can decide the destiny of the trophy. Rory McIlroy, a past champion, said of it: “It’s a ball-striker’s golf course. You have to hit fairways. You have to hit greens and you have to just take your chances when they come along.” Last year’s winner Sepp Straka, who had a superb final round and was somewhat aided by long time leader Daniel Berger having a poor weekend and late front runner Shane Lowry having to play 18 in a squall, added: “You basically try not to hit it in the water. You just pick your safe targets and you hit an aggressive shot at your safe targets.” Tommy Fleetwood talked about the importance of the wind: “There’s so many cross-winds which bring misses off the tee, into the greens, cross-winds affect the putts, and it’s just an all-around very, very difficult test, and it tests everyone. It tests every part of your game.”
Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained Tee to Green Straka ranked fourth in this category last year making him the first winner not to rank first in five years (after Justin Thomas, Keith Mitchell, Sungjae Im and Matt Jones). In all, nine of the last 10 winner ranked fourth or better (the exception was Rickie Fowler who was 10th). 2/ Florida form This tends to be a constant whenever golf heads to the state, but being the first week after the West Coast Swing rather exaggerates this point. Perhaps note that six of the last eight winners here have also finished top six at Bay Hill which is another blustery, tough tee to green test as well as having Bermuda greens. 3/ Internationals like it There have been 16 editions of the event at PGA National and no less than 10 have been won by non-Americans.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Chris Kirk Kirk avoided the Californian Poa, limiting his 2023 starts to Bermuda greens and gaining third placed finished in the Sony Open and The American Express (both times top eight for SG T2G). That makes sense because he’s a very fine Bermuda operator and especially in Florida. He’s got a fine record at Sawgrass, taking in a 54 hole lead in 2015 and third place at halfway in 2021. His second tier win in 2020 – a career reviver – was also in Florida. He’s got six top 20s at Bay Hill including eighth and fifth in his last two starts. He’s was also seventh here last year when second after rounds one, two and three. Byeong Hun An Back on the main tour and he’s 9-for-12 at making the cut with a best finish of T12th in the Sony Open. He’s now back in the state where, like Kirk, he revived his career with a second tier win (in his case last year). He’s also landed fifth and fourth at PGA National, and while he doesn’t have a top six at Bay Hill he does have a T10th. Solid SG T2G number recently including 15th last time out. The international pick. Ben Griffin A missed cut last time out at Pebble Beach for the rookie but that was his first since his seasonal opener and he impressed on grainy green when third in the Bermuda Championship, T16th in the Houston Open, T29th at the RSM Classic and T12th in the Sony Open. He was also fourth in the Wyndham Championship on a rare start last summer. And he was also second in the Suncoast Classic, in Florida, last year on the Korn Ferry Tour
Tips: 1-2; +26.00pts 1pt e.w. Chris Kirk at 25/1 (Bet365, BetVictor, BetFred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) 1st 1pt e.w. Byeong Hun An at 55/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 21st 1pt e.w. Ben Griffin at 50/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10) 21st
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