|
Welcome to the new version of the PGA Tour, one in which the top performers from the previous season have no need to tee it up until January. One of them, Max Homa, does this week, however. He wants to warm up for his Ryder Cup debut next week and he’s seeking a three-peat on the course – the North Course at Silverado Resort and Spa in California’s Napa Valley. It’s hosted the event since 2014 when Korea’s Sang Moon Bae prevailed and he was succeeded by Argentina’s Emiliano Grillo. An international bias maybe? Well, maybe not. The last five winners (two of them two-time) have all been American and, moreover, three of them (with five wins between them) have strong Californian links. Brendan Steele won back-to-back in 2016/7 – he was born in California and studied in the state. Champ, winner in 2019, was also born in the state and ditto Homa, who triumphed in the last two years. The greens are Poa Annua and have allowed poor putters to thrive but also those who cope well with it too (Homa a case in point). The course is a par 72 at around 7,100 yards. The par-4s are not long but they are narrow – smart driving will leave lots of short irons into the greens. “Smart” is the word – playing to your own game. Guys who like plotting can do so. Adam Scott said of it: “I actually really enjoy this kind of tighter, smaller style courses. We often play big, open, modern resort-style courses. If I was to pick where to play socially, this is the kind of course I would play.” In contrast, Champ said: “Sometimes I don’t even care if I’m in the rough, it doesn’t really matter. I’ll just try to position it off the tee. If the pin’s far left, I’ll play the right side. And like I said, I’ll take it in the rough being up there hitting driver.”
Angles to consider 1/ Par-4s In the site’s Top Correlated Course feature par-4s come out as the most important aspect of the game at Silverado (and East Lake the best fit - limited help for this field). 2/ Tee to Green The last five winners all ranked top three for Strokes Gained Tee to Green while six of the last seven winners ranked ninth or better for Total Driving, 3/ California Good links and the capacity to not get riled by Poa Annua
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Beau Hossler An excellent performer in California (where he was born). He was top 10 through 54 holes on his debut in the state at Olympic Club back in 2012 before finishing T29th. He was third after 54 holes in this event in 2021 before slipping back to T16th and he was T25th last year, He was third at Pebble Beach last year and T11th there this. Also sixth at Tahoe Mountain this summer. He ended last season with four top 30s in five starts. In the last event he ranked second for SG T2G. Ranks 13th for Par 4s in this field over the last year. (Also top ranks for the eleven green- and gold-coloured criteria in pre-event trends.) Alex Noren Has chosen not to return to Wentworth, where he is a past champion, instead is is seeking the retrieval of full PGA Tour playing rights. He’s twice been second in California of Poa (Torrey Pines and Tahoe Mountain) and also had a solid end to last season – ninth in Detroit, T23rd in the Open, T13th at Twin Cities and T38th at the Wyndham. Also 13th in this field over the last year for Par-4s. Akshay Bhatia Another born in California, he broke through with victory there in July at Tahoe Mountain in the Barracuda Championship. He was ninth here in 2020. Rank sixth for Par-4s in the field. (Also top ranks for the eleven green- and gold-coloured criteria in pre-event trends.)
Tips: 0-1; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Beau Hossler at 25/1 (PaddyPower, BF Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Corals 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 31st 1pt e.w. Alex Noren at 45/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Akshay Bhatia at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc
|
