The first three events of the calendar year on the PGA Tour have been won with scores of 27-under (Jon Rahm, Sentry Tournament of Champions), 18-under (Si Woo Kim, Sony Open) and 27-under (Jon Rahm, The American Express).
But don’t expect so many birdies and eagles being scribbled onto scorecards this week when the players battle it out for the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego.
For three straight years from 2014 to 2016, no-one got to double digits under par here. Scoring has improved recently with winning totals of 15-under, 14-under and 15-under in the last three years but in the 2021 running the runners-up all shot 9-under.
Last week at The American Express in La Quinta, three courses were in use but this week we’re down to two - the North and South Courses at Torrey Pines.
Golfers have one lap of the North over the first two days but, after the cut, it’s the very familiar and famed South Course that takes centre stage on the weekend.
Jon Rahm won the 2021 US Open on the South, a par 72 that can stretch to 7,765 yards. The North, also a par 72, is shorter and easier at 7,258 yards.
As with all oceanside tracks - the scenery here is spectacular - the weather can have a real impact on scoring. The latest forecast suggests it will be quite windy on Thursday but should settle down after that.
This was also the scene of Rahm’s first PGA Tour win so given that victory, his US Open triumph here and his stunning start to 2023, the Spaniard is a red-hot favourite at no bigger than 9/2.
That’s short but not at the levels when Tiger Woods was racking up seven victories in this event.
Importantly, note that the tournament starts on Wednesday this year.
Angles to consider
1/ Event form
This really is a strong pointer. Rahm and Woods have already highlighted it but Brandt Snedeker and Jason Day are both dual winners of this event and 2020 winner Marc Leishman had twice previously been a runner-up. Even last year’s surprise 80/1 winner, Luke List, had made the top 10 the previous year.
2/ All-Around
It’s common to hear the phrase “there’s no faking it at Torrey Pines South”. Everything needs to be done well and that leads us to the All-Around stat. List ranked 3rd for AA when winning in 2022 while two of the runners-up from 2021 ranked 1st in that category. Rahm also topped the AA charts when he was second in 2020.
3/ Strokes Gained: Approach
Strong iron play is a definite requirement at Torrey Pines South and the first two finishers last year - List and Will Zalatoris - were 4th and 1st respectively for Strokes Gained: Approach. That means three of the last four Farmers winners finished the week ranked in the top five for SG: Approach.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Jason Day
The Australian is a real course horse. He lifted the trophy here in both 2015 and 2018 and boasts three other top fives, the latest coming last year then he took third spot. Day ranks 10th for Strokes Gained: Approach this season and is 16th for All-Around so he looks a great statistical fit. A top 20 at The American Express last week looks an ideal prep.
Si Woo Kim
List was 10th here in 2021 before winning last year so Si Woo Kim’s 11th in 2022 could again bode well. Also top 20 on debut, the Korean ranks 9th for SG: Approach this season while he was 10th and 2nd on the All-Around in his last two starts. One of those brought victory at the Sony Open so he arrives in San Diego full of confidence.
Justin Rose
Rose is a tournament specialist and has made the top eight in four of his last Farmers visits. That run included a win in 2019 and a sixth last year when this column successfully tipped him each-way. He’s 6th on the current All-Around ranking and closed his week at The American Express last week with a 65 to finish tied 26th. Back at one of his favourite venues, the Englishman can make his mark again.
Tips 1-2; +0.75pts
1.25pts e.w. Jason Day at 22/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 7th
1pt e.w. Si Woo Kim at 33/1 (Sky Bet, Hills, Betfair 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 25th
0.75pts e.w. Justin Rose at 50/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 18th
