It’s a double header on the PGA Tour this week although it’s fair to say that the Corales Puntacana Championship won’t have the same eyeballs on it as the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play in Texas.
Still, there’s a PGA Tour title up for grabs and this is a golden chance for some of the younger stars, veterans or rank and file to make a bit of personal history.
This is the eighth edition of the event although the first two were played on the Korn Ferry Tour.
Once more, Corales Golf Club in the Dominican Republic plays host. It’s a par 72 and measures in at a hefty 7,670 yards.
The Tom Fazio design stretches along the Caribbean Sea for six holes and features wide fairways and fairly slow Paspalum greens.
Joel Dahmen won with 12-under when it really blew in 2021 but generally the winning score is around 17 to 18-under.
No Strokes Gained data is available so punters will need to check more traditional stats to drill down from basic scorecards.
Wyndham Clark has been put in as the clear favourite but is no bigger than 9/1 despite not being a winner on the PGA Tour yet.
Angles to consider
1/ Putting Average
Of the traditional stats available, Putting Average stands out a mile. Looking at the five winners since 2018, all were ranked in the top five for PA when winning and two topped that category.
2/ Par 3s
Often it’s the Par 5s or, if not, the Par 4s where the key scoring is done. But at Corales GC it’s the four short holes that stand out. The first three home last year were ranked 7th, 5th and 1st for Par 3 Scoring while in three of the previous four years the tournament winner was in the top three in this category.
3/ Form on Paspalum tracks
The World Wide Technology Championship at El Camaleon and the recently played Puerto Rico Open also have Paspalum surfaces and there is plenty of correlating form between those events and this one. Hardly a surprise given that they’re all windy, coastal tracks.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Patrick Rodgers
Rodgers is one of the very few players in the field in the top 30 for Putting Average this season while he has numerous top 25s in events held on Paspalum. That includes 11th in this event in 2020 and a 10th at El Camaleon. Third and fourth in the last two editions of the Bermuda Championship also show his liking for a windy, seaside test.
Emiliano Grillo
The Argentine thrives on Paspalum courses. In this event, he was sixth in 2021 after a 21st in 2020 while at El Camaleon he has three top 10s. In Puerto Rico, Grillo has posted second, third and 11th while he was also runner-up at the CIMB Classic in Malaysia, another tournament played on Paspalum. Grillo is 40th in Par 3 Birdie or Better leaders this season.
Harry Higgs
Higgs ranks 9th for Putting Average this season and just two starts ago he took tied seventh in the Puerto Rico Open, one of the correlating courses to Corales. This is his tournament debut but his Puerto Rico form and a fourth place in the 2021 PGA Championship at Kiawah Island (coastal track with Paspalum grass) suggests he’ll take to it well. That hot putter could take him far.
Tips 0-3; -6.00pts
1.25pts e.w. Patrick Rodgers at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc
1pt e.w. Emiliano Grillo at 28/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 70th
0.75pts e.w. Harry Higgs at 70/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 38th
