Texas is the scene of this week’s PGA Tour event as a strong field heads south from the US PGA Championship in New York.
Local Texans Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth were always likely to support their home-State event but they’re far from the only star names on show.
Overall, eight members of the world’s top 20 tee it up at famed Colonial Country Club, a venue nicknamed ‘Hogan’s Alley’ after one of the game’s true legends.
Ben Hogan won the first two editions of the tournament in 1946 and 1947. And he won the event three more times.
Sam Burns came with a fast finish to beat Scheffler in a playoff last year and American players have occupied first and second in this event for the last four years.
Indeed, United States players have won 13 of the last 15 runnings with England’s Justin Rose and Australia’s Adam Scott the two outliers.
That pair are major winners and the trophy is littered with them. Those engraved twice include Zach Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Corey Pavin and Lee Trevino.
Strong winds can really affect winning scores although the forecast this week suggests 15mph at the most so perhaps something around 14-15 under could get it done.
Colonial CC is a par 70 measuring just over 7,200 yards. It features fast Bentgrass greens.
Angles to consider
1/ Strokes Gained: Approach
Strong iron play is always a key here. The last six winners ranked 12th, 8th, 5th, 1st and 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach. You get the feeling that Hogan would approve.
2/ Strokes Gained: Putting
Prowess on the greens has also been a feature of champions/podium finishers. Last year Burns ranked 6th for SG: Putting and third-placed Brendon Todd 3rd. The SGP rankings of the winners prior to that were 7th, 8th and 2nd.
3/ Par 4 Performance
Last year, the four best scorers on the 12 Par 4s - many of which are dog-legs - finished second, third, tied fourth and tied fourth. Winner Burns was seventh while the previous five champions ranked in the top three for Par 4s.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Rickie Fowler
Fowler’s stats suggest a big week could be coming. He ranks 10th for SG: Approach, 41st in SG: Putting and 26th for Par 4 Performance. Fowler missed the US PGA cut but had reeled off five straight top 20s before that. He has a fifth and two other top 16s at Colonial Country Club.
Justin Rose
Rose, a winner at Pebble Beach earlier this season, has finished sixth at The Players, 16th in the US Masters and ninth at last week’s US PGA so he’s in fine form. He won this event in 2018 and returned two years later to add third place. Looking at his stats this season, the Englishman is 20th for SG: Putting, 33rd for Approach and 44th in Par 4s.
Chris Kirk
Like Rose, Kirk is a former Colonial winner after taking victory in 2015. He’s also been fifth and recorded the seventh of his top 15s in this event last year. Kirk is 10th for Par 4 Performance while his iron play and putting are strong too. The American is in the top 27% on Tour for both SG: Putting and Approach.
Tips 1-2; +0.60pts
1pt e.w. Rickie Fowler at 28/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Hills, Sky Bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 6th
1pt e.w. Justin Rose at 28/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 12th
1pt e.w. Chris Kirk at 33/1 (Coral 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) mc
