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There’s a change for this year’s Tournament of Champions, the traditional first event of every PGA Tour New Year. Well, a permanent change we should add because the format is the one used in 2021 after the disruptions of Covid in 2020. That year, of course, there were even fewer winners to invite than normal so the top 30 in the rankings got asked to play and bolster numbers. From now on it repeats that notion in order to further opportunities for the top players to make money and not be tempted by LIV Golf (in all 17 of the world’s top 20 will tee it up although not No. 1 Rory McIlroy). The course – designed by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw – has not changed. It’s still a par-73 with just the three par-3s and a total yardage that is largely deceptive because many short par-4s play up steep hills and long ones play down them. The key defences of a course designed to be attacked are the trade winds and the slopes. “You’re not going to find a slopier golf course than this,” Brooks Koepka said. “There’s so many awkward little lies: ball above your feet, below your feet, and then downhill, and then you’re hitting up the hill. Things like that you just don’t find anywhere besides maybe here and Augusta or at least that I’ve played.” Dustin Johnson said of the wind: “It’s always blowing here and you really got to use the wind to help your ball get close to the hole. It’s all about controlling the ball and hitting it solid.” Last year Jon Rahm added a nice distinction. “Because of the wind these greens are slower, it's a bit of an adjustment period, right?” he said. “I’m not the only one who struggles. Most people who don’t have a good week would think putting might be the No. 1 contributing factor to the difference between the winner to somebody who is in 15th place.”
Angles to consider 1/ Recent form Five of the last seven (and 14 of the last 24) winners had won in the last four months of the preceding year. Also, Australians have a good record in the event: Stuart Appleby won three in a row, Geoff Ogilvy two in a row and Cameron Smith won last year. What helped? Possibly that they had been playing at home in late November and December rather than resting and/or holidaying. Other winners had been playing December silly season events like the Hero World Challenge and QBE Shootout. 2/ Course dynamics As the player quotes indicate, Plantation is undulating to a strong degree. Golfers with good records at Augusta National and TPC Deere Run (two other up and down course) have transferred that form to this event. It’s also true that winners here tend to have proved themselves (either with wins or solid form) at blustery coastal courses with Bermuda grass greens. 3/ A hot putter Remember Rahm’s words. The Strokes Gained Putting rankings of the last seven winners were: 1-4-6-3-13-1-1. That’s pretty good. But the Putting Average rankings are even better: 1-1-1-2-2-1-2. This factor is especially clear in a year of good weather because the field hits lots of greens. Last year, for example, only seven of the 38 players didn’t hit at least 80% of the greens and everyone topped 70%. The key is to hit the right part of the greens and then drain lots of birdie opportunities.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Justin Thomas He’s played the course seven times, winning twice with another three top five finishes. In his two wins he ranked first for Putting Average. He’s also won the Sony Open at Waialae (also Hawaii). He finished fifth in the Hero World Challenge and then won The Match with Jordan Spieth (against Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy). Jordan Spieth Also played the Hero World Challenge ahead of joining Thomas for The Match win. He’s played the event five times garnering a win, a second and a third. He ranked first for SG Putting in the win and has twice ranked first for Putting Average. He loves up and down courses with five top threes (including one win) at Augusta National and two wins at TPC Deere Run. Hideki Matsuyama No recent form to speak of but he’s had a good chance to get over injury problems, won at Augusta National, he’s won in Hawaii (and putted well on the islands), and he’s got a second, a third and a fourth from his five course visits. If he is over the injuries this price is a good one.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 2pts win Justin Thomas at 11/1 (General) 25th 1pt e.w. Jordan Spieth at 30/1 (Unibet, BetUK 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) 13th 1pt e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 40/1 (888, Unibet, Coral, BetUK, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) 21st
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