On the 2016 OneAsia Tour, K.H. Lee entered the Kolon Korea Open as the defending champion.
Four days later he bettered the score he’d won with 12 months earlier and hoisted the trophy for the second year running.
Perhaps punters wish they’d paid closer attention to that somewhat obscure feat at last year’s AT&T Byron Nelson.
Lee had been the shock winner at TPC Craig Ranch near Dallas in 2021 when shooting 25-under. And, in a re-run of his Kolon Korea Open heroics, the Korean pulled off a repeat performance, this time triumphing with 26-under.
Lee didn’t enter the 2017 Korea Open so we don’t have a steer on a possible three-peat but the 31-year-old is certainly being respected with the bookies this year.
With Jordan Spieth pulling out and most of the big guns honing their games for next week’s US PGA Championship at Oak Hill, Lee is a general 22/1 chance for a third straight win on the 7,414-yard par 71.
In other words, for one week only, he’s the same price as Hideki Matsuyama to win a PGA Tour event. Hmmm.
Scottie Scheffler is the hot favourite at 7/2 to gain his third win of 2023, with Tyrrell Hatton second best at 14s.
Tom Kim will also be trying to keep the trophy in Korean hands for what would be a fourth straight edition after Sung-hoon Kang claimed the title at Trinity Forest in 2019.
The 2020 tournament was cancelled to the pandemic so we have just two years of form at TPC Craig Ranch.
What did Lee think made him the double champion here in 2021 and 2022? He said last year: “I think the key is iron shot.”
Angles to consider
1/ Strokes Gained: Approach
Lee seems to have it spot on with his quote about irons. Looking at 2022, these were the Strokes Gained: Approach rankings of the top four: 8th, 4th, 7th, 1st. It was similar in 2021 as the top six ranked 2nd, 6th, 42nd, 7th, 5th and 4th for SGA.
2/ Texas form
Lee has back-to-back wins here and also 14th and 23rd in two of his three Texas Open starts. But look at the two runners-up to Lee. Sam Burns, who finished second last year, has two wins in his last three starts in Texas. And local man Jordan Spieth (second in 2022) has eight top 10s in his last 12 events in the Lone Star State.
3/ Par Breakers
This is a genuine birdie/eagle fest. Lee racked up 25 birdies and two eagles last year and 28 birdies in 2021. We also saw rounds of 60 and 61 in 2022.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Hideki Matsuyama
A former Houston runner-up, Matsuyama closed with a 62 to finish third at this course last year. As for his iron play, the Japanese star has ranked in the top 25 for SG: Approach in each of his last three starts: the Players, the Texas Open and the Masters. He ranks in the top 30% this season for Par Breakers. The price of 22/1 looks more than fair.
Tom Hoge
Hoge is 8th for Par Breakers this season so, in this field, Scheffler is the only player above him in that category. Even better, the 2022 Pebble Beach winner ranks 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach. Hoge was 17th at this venue last year and 12th in the 2021 Texas Open so looks a good each-way bet in his first start since tied 13th in the Zurich Classic pairs event.
Adam Scott
The Aussie ranks 35th in Par Breakers and was 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach - an area that had been letting him down - when fifth in the Wells Fargo Championship last week. The 2013 Masters winner is also a triple winner in Texas. His wins include this event, albeit at a different venue.
Tips 1-2; -3.47pts
1.25pts e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 22/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 23rd
0.75pts e.w. Tom Hoge at 45/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 43rd
1pt e.w. Adam Scott at 33/1 (Betfair, William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 8th
