In 2024, the PGA Tour returns to a calendar-year schedule, the new season starting off with The Sentry in Hawaii.
That leaves two more counting events - the 53rd and 54th - to complete in the 2022/23 campaign and the first is this week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
This is a relatively new PGA Tour event, the first taking place in 2019 when Brendon Todd cruised to 24-under and a four-shot victory.
Brian Gay edged out current US Open champion Wyndham Clark in 2020 and, like Todd, he’s also a winner of the Mayakoba Championship at El Camaleon in Mexico.
That makes sense given that both this one, Port Royal, and El Camaleon are coastal tracks that are at the whim of the elements.
The latest two winners here - Aussie Lucas Herbert and Seamus Power - are both players who grew up in windy conditions.
The forecast this week? Conditions start off at a fairly modest 10-12mph but they rise throughout the week and could be over 20mph when the tournament concludes on Sunday.
Seamus Power said last year: “For the most part you’re kind of expecting it 10, 15 or more. The course is designed for it, which I like. It kind of helps you picture some of the shots with win directions.”
Asked why he did well here, Brian Gay said in 2021: “I think it’s a combination of the weather, just similar to Florida. I grew up on Bermudagrass which the whole course is here.”
Angles to consider
1/ Putting Average
These are the Putting Average stats of the four winners here: Power 3rd, Herbert 10th, Gay 6th and Todd 3rd. Sinking putts takes you far at Port Royal and, without any Strokes Gained data recorded in past editions, PA looks the most reliable stat.
2/ Form on correlating courses/Bermuda tracks
It’s already been noted that Todd and Gay have won both here at Port Royal and at El Camaleon. Boo Weekley has likened this week’s track to Harbour Town (RBC Heritage) while other coastal tracks that correlate include Waialae (Sony Open) and Corales (Corales Puntacana). Form on those courses and other Bermuda tracks counts for plenty.
3/ Par 4 Scoring
It’s a Par 71 and hence there’s one more Par 4 than standard. The Par 4 leaders in the four past editions here went on to finish 3rd (Ben Griffin), 12th (Graeme McDowell), 1st (Gay) and 2nd (Harry Higgs).
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Brendon Todd
Todd won the inaugural Bermuda Championship and loves the island and the layout. He ranks 12th this season in Putting Average and 24th for Par 4 Scoring while he has a bunch of form on correlating courses. This is totally in his wheelhouse and he arrives showing strong form following three top sevens in his last six starts including sixth at the Fortinet Championship last time.
Ben Griffin
Griffin was third here last year and looks a good fit to do even better this time. He ranks 27th in Par 4 Scoring Average and 43rd on the season-long Putting Average charts. A runner-up at the Sanderson Farms (Bermuda greens) last month, he made the top 25 in Mexico last week while form on correlating courses includes 12th at the Sony Open earlier this year and fourth at last season's Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield.
David Lingmerth
Lingmerth was 11th here last year and he’s had some strong form on Bermuda courses since then with sixth at The Players Championship and top 10s at the RSM Classic and Honda Classic. Five starts ago he was third by the coast in the Scottish Open where he ranked 1st for SG: Putting. The Swede looks capable of a big week at a huge price.
Tips 0-3; -6.00pts
1.5pts e.w. Brendon Todd at 18/1 (Boylesports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 20th
1.25pts e.w. Ben Griffin at 22/1 (Boylesports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 37th
0.25pts e.w. David Lingmerth at 125/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Hills 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 76th
