A look at the field for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in Florida confirms immediately that it’s another ‘designated event’ week on the PGA Tour.
All of the world’s top 20 head to Orlando - the exception LIV’s Cameron Smith - so we’re in for another superb week of golf.
History says the cream rises to the top in Arnie’s tournament with the last seven winners Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Tyrrell Hatton, Francesco Molinari, Rory McIlroy, Marc Leishman and Jason Day.
Tiger Woods won the event eight times, the last in 2013, although he won’t be taking part this time as he manages his schedule around the Majors.
Bay Hill is a par 72 measuring over 7,400 yards at its peak. The greens are on the larger side and covered in TifEagle Bermuda.
Scheffler took victory with 5-under-par last year while Hatton needed just 4-under in 2020 so Bay Hill can be a seriously tough test.
That looks to be the case again this year with strong winds predicted from Thursday to Saturday.
Jon Rahm tops the betting after winning three times on the West Coast but his record in Florida is modest.
Angles to consider
1/ Course form
As mentioned, Tiger won eight times while there have also been back-to-back wins for Loren Roberts in the 1990s and Matt Every in 2014/2015. Ernie Els is also a dual winner. Nine of the last 11 winners had previously posted a top five at Bay Hill while Scheffler had been 15th on his only start.
2/ Strokes Gained: Approach
Scheffler ranked 1st for SG: Approach last year while 2020 champion Hatton was 2nd in that category. In 2021, the top three finishers ranked 9th, 3rd and 1st for SGA. Hitting quality irons looks a key to success.
3/ Pedigree
As noted above, this is an event for the elite. Of the last seven Bay Hill champions, five are Major winners while the other two, Hatton and Leishman, have both played Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Will Zalatoris
Zalatoris cracked the top 10 here on debut and was 12th with 18 holes to go on his second appearance last year so likes the course. A guaranteed future star of Ryder Cups/Presidents Cups, his incredible record in the majors (three second places, two sixths and an eighth in the 10 he’s played) means he should enjoy taking on the world’s best in tough conditions. A fast-finishing fourth at Riviera last time points to a big week.
Jason Day
Day has already donned the famous red cardigan after winning Arnie’s event in 2016. He returns showing some of his best form in years after a trio of top 10s at the Farmers Insurance Open, Phoenix Open and Genesis Invitational. The major winner and Presidents Cup star ranks 21st in Strokes Gained: Approach this season.
Rickie Fowler
Fowler once finished in the top five in all four majors in the same season while he’s represented the USA in Ryder Cups and Presidents Cups. At Bay Hill, he has a third and three other top 20s. As for current form, he’s on a run of 20-10-11 having twice made the top six this season and, notably given what we’re looking for, he ranks 7th for SG: Approach this season. He’s also strong in the wind.
Tips 0-3; -6.00pts
1.25pts e.w. Will Zalatoris at 20/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 53rd
