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Throughout its long history The American Express has had many titles and many formats. To list what it has been called would take forever so let’s stick to the set-up. It was once a celebrity pro-am, now it is merely a pro-am. It was once five rounds, now it is four. In addition to all of this it has utilised all sorts of course rotas in the golf-mad resort of Palm Springs but is currently settled with three laps at PGA West (twice on the Stadium Course, once on the Nicklaus) and one at La Quinta CC. All three courses play to a par of 72. La Quinta is the shortest at 7,060 yards and, although the tightest, it is set up easily enough so low scores are to be expected. The Nicklaus track is 7,147 yards and can be attacked while the Stadium, designed by Pete Dye, is 7,187 yards and offers the most problems for the field. Par breakers come aplenty but so do big numbers (there are many water hazards). Hudson Swafford is a two-time winner and noted a key factor in success (or otherwise): the greens have Bermuda grass but it is dormant at this time of year and overseeded with Poa. It can be tricky to read. Phil Mickelson said of the Stadium Course: “My game plan is to actually hit drivers and to try to bomb it down there as close to the greens as you can. Even though the fairways are tight in a lot of areas and if I miss fairways, try to have wedges or short irons in and give myself a lot of good chances.” Swafford argues for a more conservative approach and last three winners have been guys who are solid from the tee box but it probably remains the case that if an attacking golfer gets the breaks he can contend.
Angles to consider 1/ Not the debut for the year Each of the last seven winners had already tee it up since the Christmas/New Year break. 2/ Form A tricky one this. Adam Long won after a run of seven missed cuts with a T63rd in the middle while Andrew Landry was marginally better with seven missed cuts and a T23rd. On the other hand 12 of the last 16 winners did at least have a top 25 for the season. 3/ Pete Dye It was far more of a factor when Si Woo Kim won in 2021 because the Stadium Course was used three times that week due to Covid regulations (in fact we picked him that week on this exact basis). But it’s still the case that 36 of the holes – and the last 18 – are Dye-designed. Some golfers like his tests, others hate them.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Brian Harman Harman was a popular selection the last two weeks and with good reason: he had great form late last year (a pair of seconds) and a decent record at both Waialae and Plantation. Results of 16th and 30th in Hawaii have seen his odds pushed out a little and it’s worth pouncing. His first three visits to the tournament were poor but he’s turned it around: his last six trips have a worst effort of T21st including twice third and once eighth. He has top three finishes at Dye’s River Highlands and TPC Sawgrass. Cam Davis Aussie Davis won on home soil over the winter break (albeit a small event), he was third last year at Dye’s Harbour Town, he’s been very consistent for a long time now (just two failures to make the top 40 in his last 13 starts including seven top 20s) and he has a good tournament log book (T28th, T29th, third). Tom Hoge Another who didn’t immediately warm to this event but he was sixth in 2020 and second last year. He used the latter experience to soon after win another multi-course pro-am – the AT&T Pebble Beach (he’s also got two top 10s at another multi-course event, the RSM Classic). He’s got seven finshes of T13th or better in his last 12 starts and was third at Plantation.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Brian Harman at 33/1 (William Hill, PaddyPower, BF Sportsbook, Skybet, 888 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Cam Davis at 40/1 (William Hill, PaddyPower, BF Sportsbook, Skybet, 888, Boylesport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Tom Hoge at 35/1 (Skybet, 888, Boylesport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 32nd
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