The golf season seems to have gone by in a blur.
Not only are all four Majors in the books but there are just two more weeks of action before the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs begin.
That gives this week’s 3M Open some extra importance as results here and next week’s Wyndham Championship will decide who makes the top 70 who go through.
One of those on the outside looking in is Justin Thomas at 75th. His bizarre season continued with rounds of 82-71 and a missed cut at Hoylake last week.
Tony Finau returns to defend the title he won 12 months ago but he’s also in the middle of a funk after missed cuts at both the Scottish Open and the Open Championship.
Finau won with 17-under last year to become the fourth straight American winner of an event that only made it onto the PGA Tour schedule in 2019.
There’s nothing too quirky about the Arnold Palmer-designed par 71 that measures around 7,400 yards.
But Mother Nature will play a role this week although not in the same way it did at both the Scottish Open and Open Championship.
Speaking of the forecast on Tuesday, Billy Horschel said: “I mean, it’s really hot. I wasn’t expecting the temperatures to be this high. I mean, holy buckets, it’s a scorcher out there, it really is.”
Noting the course, Horschel added: “The fairways are somewhat generous. You can be aggressive with the driver. The green speeds are, I mean, super fast.”
Angles to consider
1/ Driving
Three of the winners here are big hitters - Finau, Cameron Champ and Matthew Wolff. With room off the tee, it certainly helps if you can give it a bash although some level of accuracy is worth it too.
2/ Strokes Gained: Approach
The SG: Approach rankings of the four winners here are: 3rd, 19th, 4th and 2nd. Indeed, the top five last year were all ranked in the top 15 for SGA and four of those were top eight. Strong iron play counts for plenty.
3/ Par 4s
Playing the Par 4s well is a big key to achieving the ultimate success here. Three of the four 3M Open champions ranked 1st/tied 1st for Par 4 Scoring while the other was 2nd.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Lucas Glover
Glover ranks third in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach over the last eight weeks and is 37th this season in Total Driving. He also sits a healthy 31st in Par 4 Scoring. Those skills have helped him reel off a trio of top sixes in his last three events so Glover, who was seventh here on debut in 2019, is one of the field’s form players.
Gary Woodland
The 2019 US Open champion was 11th on his only appearance here in 2021 and has the game to shine again. He ranks 9th in the field for SG: Approach over the last eight weeks and 10th overall for the season while he’s 11th for SG: Off The Tee. A top 25 at the Scottish Open and playing all four rounds at Hoylake suggests he can go well in this modest field.
Ludvig Aberg
The young Swede carries high expectations after making it onto the PGA Tour but he’s living up to them and posted a top four at the John Deere Classic after a run of three top 25s in his previous five starts. His Strokes Gained: Off The Tee numbers are the best in the field during that run and he ranked 11th for Approach and 6th for Par 4 Scoring at the John Deere.
Tips 0-3; -6.00pts
1pt e.w. Lucas Glover at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) mc
1pt e.w. Gary Woodland at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) mc
1pt e.w. Ludvig Aberg at 28/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 64th
