Simulation Results: LIV Golf Virginia

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	3.79%	26	36	1.00%	43	-1	Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrian Meronk	0.60%	167	251	0.20%	21	-0.2	PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anirban Lahiri	0.59%	169	126		44
Anthony Kim	0.08%	1250	111		6
Ben Campbell	0.21%	476	751	0.10%	53	-0.1	Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bjorn Hellgren	0.06%	1667	351		35
Branden Grace	2.86%	35	23		21
Brendan Steele	0.99%	101	161	0.40%	39	-0.4	Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson DeChambeau	8.49%	12	9		3
Bubba Watson	1.11%	90	141	0.40%	35	-0.4	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Byeong Hun An	0.78%	128	71		35
Caleb Surratt	1.47%	68	67		12
Cameron Smith	1.36%	74	46		26
Cameron Tringale	1.32%	76	126	0.50%	46	-0.5	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlos Ortiz	3.08%	32	34	0.10%	30	-0.1	Skybet: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charl Schwartzel	0.55%	182	126		26
Charles Howell	1.72%	58	71	0.30%	14	-0.3	PaddyPower: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danny Lee	0.05%	2000	1501		57
David Puig	4.68%	21	15		12
Dean Burmester	2.78%	36	21		4
Dustin Johnson	2.28%	44	41		18
Elvis Smylie	0.25%	400	71		46
Graeme McDowell	0.54%	185	301	0.20%	18	-0.2	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harold Varner	1.07%	93	81		51
Ian Poulter	0.12%	833	601		18
Jason Kokrak	1.23%	81	251	0.80%	46	-0.8	PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joaquin Niemann	4.71%	21	17		8
Jon Rahm	14.79%	6.8	3.75		8
Jose Luis Ballester	4.08%	25	23		5
Laurie Canter	1.04%	96	111	0.10%	46	-0.1	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lee Westwood	0.72%	139	181	0.20%	30	-0.2	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Louis Oosthuizen	3.05%	33	46	0.90%	42	-0.9	Boyle Sports: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lucas Herbert	1.82%	55	46		1
Luis Masaveu	0.35%	286	181		51
Marc Leishman	3.46%	29	34	0.50%	14	-0.5	Skybet: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Kaymer	0.21%	476	1001	0.10%	39	-0.1	Unibet: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Wolff	0.70%	143	56		44
Michael La Sasso	0.03%	3333	351		46
Miguel Tabuena	0.02%	5000	1001		25
Minkyu Kim	0.04%	2500	401		56
Paul Casey	0.80%	125	101		14
Peter Uihlein	1.22%	82	91	0.10%	54	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard Bland	0.54%	185	141		26
Richard T. Lee	0.44%	227	56		30
Sam Horsfield	0.13%	769	1001		55
Scott Vincent	1.39%	72	61		8
Sebastian Munoz	2.60%	38	34		30
Sergio Garcia	1.07%	93	81		2
Talor Gooch	1.71%	58	51		39
Thomas Detry	1.31%	76	13		6
Thomas Pieters	3.01%	33	51	1.10%	26	-1.1	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom McKibbin	1.69%	59	36		21
Travis Smyth	0.33%	303	176
Tyrrell Hatton	5.22%	19	11		17
Victor Perez	0.96%	104	67		11
Yosuke Asaji	0.07%	1429	751		35
Young-Han Song	0.43%	233	161		30

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	2.88%	35	34		25
Adrian Meronk	1.24%	81	101	0.30%	11	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anirban Lahiri	1.31%	76	71		50
Anthony Kim	0.58%	172	61		7
Ben Campbell	0.90%	111	151	0.20%	50	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bjorn Hellgren	0.59%	169	126		11
Branden Grace	2.48%	40	29		25
Brendan Steele	1.56%	64	71	0.20%	43	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson DeChambeau	4.22%	24	15		11
Bubba Watson	1.66%	60	71	0.30%	16	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Byeong Hun An	1.42%	70	46		43
Caleb Surratt	1.90%	53	46		31
Cameron Smith	1.90%	53	41		31
Cameron Tringale	1.89%	53	61	0.30%	31	-0.3	QuinnBet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlos Ortiz	2.61%	38	34		31
Charl Schwartzel	1.23%	81	71		31
Charles Howell	2.07%	48	46		16
Danny Lee	0.51%	196	251	0.10%	50	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Puig	3.16%	32	21		16
Dean Burmester	2.58%	39	26		7
Dustin Johnson	2.19%	46	34		25
Elvis Smylie	0.87%	115	46		25
Graeme McDowell	1.22%	82	111	0.30%	6	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harold Varner	1.61%	62	51		56
Ian Poulter	0.66%	152	151		25
Jason Kokrak	1.80%	56	81	0.60%	43	-0.6	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joaquin Niemann	3.15%	32	23		16
Jon Rahm	5.77%	17	9		11
Jose Luis Ballester	3.05%	33	29		43
Laurie Canter	1.60%	63	61		49
Lee Westwood	1.43%	70	81	0.20%	31	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Louis Oosthuizen	2.65%	38	34		16
Lucas Herbert	2.03%	49	41		1
Luis Masaveu	1.05%	95	81		56
Marc Leishman	2.76%	36	34		2
Martin Kaymer	0.88%	114	201	0.40%	31	-0.4	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthew Wolff	1.34%	75	41		31
Michael La Sasso	0.37%	270	126		55
Miguel Tabuena	0.40%	250	201		43
Minkyu Kim	0.37%	270	141		50
Paul Casey	1.44%	69	61		16
Peter Uihlein	1.76%	57	56		50
Richard Bland	1.25%	80	71		25
Richard T. Lee	1.18%	85	41		43
Sam Horsfield	0.70%	143	201	0.20%	31	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Scott Vincent	1.83%	55	36		31
Sebastian Munoz	2.46%	41	34		2
Sergio Garcia	1.59%	63	51		2
Talor Gooch	1.99%	50	41		31
Thomas Detry	1.80%	56	19		16
Thomas Pieters	2.59%	39	41	0.20%	31	-0.2	BetMGM: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tom McKibbin	2.07%	48	34		16
Travis Smyth	1.03%	97	81
Tyrrell Hatton	3.20%	31	17		2
Victor Perez	1.57%	64	41		7
Yosuke Asaji	0.51%	196	151		16
Young-Han Song	1.18%	85	81		11

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Thomas Pieters	3.01%	33	51	1.10%	26	-2	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Abraham Ancer	3.79%	26	36	1.00%	43	-2	Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Louis Oosthuizen	3.05%	33	46	0.90%	42	-2	Boyle Sports: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Jason Kokrak	1.80%	56	81	0.60%	43	-1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Martin Kaymer	0.88%	114	201	0.40%	31	-1	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Cameron Tringale	1.89%	53	61	0.30%	31	-1	QuinnBet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Bubba Watson	1.66%	60	71	0.30%	16	-1	Ladbrokes: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Adrian Meronk	1.24%	81	101	0.30%	11	-1	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Graeme McDowell	1.22%	82	111	0.30%	6	-1	Ladbrokes: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and and the six advised each-way plays FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays will be posted on Tuesday afternoon once odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised. FRL plays will be posted on Wednesday or one day prior to the start of the event.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.