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How do you follow last week? It seemed bizarre that LIV Golf would hold events the week before and after the U.S. Open and the PGA Tour would do the same with its signature events, but it adds another dimension to the LIV Golf vs PGA Tour battle last week. In an incredible Sunday back nine, it was LIV Golf’s Bryson DeChambeau who prevailed over the PGA Tour’s Rory McIlroy. The loser withdrew from the Travelers Championship, while the party will continue in Nashville. Tickets are sold out with the well-documented ‘Bryson effect’. There will be a level of energy this week not seen in a LIV Golf event held in the United States. DeChambeau is golf’s biggest draw right now and while it is difficult to be see him winning this week – the media commitments, lack of sleep and partying will take their toll – he is sure to entertain and LIV Golf will be very keen to put on a spectacle and profit from Bryson’s momentum. It seems ironic that LIV Golf arrives in Music City in this week of all weeks. Beyond 54 hole events and shotgun starts, LIV Golf is known for its music. That it is played so loudly while the golfers are playing takes some adjustment for newbies to this form of golf, but it will be no surprise if it is even louder this week in this Bryson party week. The venue is The Grove, designed by Greg Norman and opened in 2012. It has hosted the Simmons Bank Open on the Korn Ferry Tour in each the last three years. Measuring 7,297 yards, it is not the longest course on the schedule, but there is enough water, such as the McCrory Creek that meanders its way through the course, to ensure that this is not a course that will be over-powered by the big-hitters. The fairways are generous and so focuses attention on where the most excitement takes place: on and around the greens. The course is relatively flat so the greens are raised with challenging run-off areas and 15-20 foot slopes running off the sides of the greens, but without the wire-grass and the very hard greens that caught so much attention at Pinehurst last week. Good approach shots will be rewarded with birdie chances, while poor shots will face testing recovery shots. The winning scores in the Simmons Bank Open have been 16-, 16-, and 17-under-par. Very consistent and clear that while there were good scoring chances, these are relatively high winning scores for a Korn Ferry Tour event. A good challenge, but much easier than last week. It has been a par-72 while The Grove hosted the Simmons Bank Open and will be a par-71 this week. The second hole has been changed to a par-4 even though it measures 529 yards. This hole had played the easiest to par across all three Simmons Bank Opens so this par change makes sense. There is the obligatory driveable par-4, but this is unusually on the front nine – the fourth hole. Given that the second hole is now a par-4 and the third and fifth holes were the second-hardest and hardest, respectively, holes across the last three years, this is clearly a tough opening stretch despite the driveable par-4. The closing five holes, with the exception of the 502 yard 17th hole, are a much easier stretch of holes with the final hole being the second-easiest hole over the last three years. A tough opening and a much more scoreable closing stretch should make for a dramatic close to the event on Sunday. Drawing on the three Simmons Bank Open here, as week as last week’s event at Pinehurst, here are a couple of angles that can be used this week. Angles to consider: 1. Greens in regulation and scrambling will be the key stats this week The first angle is based on the Korn Ferry Tour events played here in the last three years and is really a focus on two stats so could be treated as two separate angles. Given the nature of courses played on the LIV Golf schedule, the greens in regulation angle is predictable - the winner of all but one LIV Golf tournament this season has finished in the top-10 that week for greens in regulation. The same can said for the events played here. Austin Smotherman won the inaugural event here and led the field in greens in regulation that week; the following year, Brent Grant won the event and ranked 7th for greens in regulation, while runner-up Vincent Norrman was second in that category; while last year, the late Grayson Murray won the event and ranked 12th for greens in regulation, while runner-up Carter Jenkins was second in that category. And the stats also bear the importance scrambling. Smotherman was fifth in that category when winning in 2021 and Grant led the category when winning in 2022. With a relatively high winning score, saving par must be important and the stats confirm the implications of the steep run-off areas from these greens. 2. Avoid players who competed in the U.S. Open last week, especially those that made the cut It was notable that it wasn’t the favourites who won the LIV Golf events two weeks ago. The Cleeks won their first team title and Carlos Ortiz won his first individual title. The U.S. Open loomed large on the horizon for a dozen players (as did qualifying that Monday) and they will certainly be tired from a very demanding U.S. Open course last week. Those who didn’t play last week will certainly be fresher. A look at last year’s Travelers Championship can be used as a guide: Keegan Bradley won, having missed the cut the week before in the U.S. Open, while of the two runners-up, Zac Blair hadn’t played the previous week, while Brian Harman had finished 43rd in the U.S. Open. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Louis Oosthuizen
Oosthuizen is a player who is very focused on his work-life balance. He has an 86-acre ranch in Ocala, Florida, and turned down an invite to play in the PGA Championship last month. That suggests he is a player focusing on semi-retirement and so may not be particularly competitive, but he won back-to-back events on the DP World Tour in December and has finished runner-up three times in his last seven starts. And his game is very well-suited to this course – he is the classic fairways-and-greens player and ranks 1st in scrambling on LIV Golf this year. Dustin Johnson
Johnson doesn’t fit the second angle as he played last week, but with rounds of 74 and 75, he wasn’t particularly close to making the cut and so there should be little hangover from Pinehurst. As a player, he is very difficult to call when he is fully prepared and competitive, but when on focus, he can be as dominant as previously on LIV Golf. He did start the season very well, finishing in the top-5 in Mayakoba and winning in Las Vegas. Ranking inside the top-10 for greens in regulation and scrambling this year, this course should suit and there should be value at these odds. Jon Rahm
The odds have risen high enough for Rahm to be considered as a value play. Admittedly, he did withdraw from the LIV Golf event two weeks ago with a foot infection and couldn’t play last week, but that is the mostly likely cause for these odds and he has certainly rested well ahead of this event and his foot is now well enough to enable him to compete. Given his big-money signing, his rookie LIV Golf season may feel underwhelming as he is yet to win, but his withdrawal in Houston was the first time that he has finished outside the top-10 in these events. If as fit as indicated in his interview yesterday, he will sure to be a contender yet again and this course should play to his strengths – as with Dustin, he ranks well inside the top-10 for greens in regulation and scrambling this year. It may also be helpful that the media spotlight is less on the Spaniard this week. Tips 1-2; -3.00pts 1pt e.w. Louis Oosthuizen 25/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 13th 1pt e.w. Dustin Johnson 22/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 51st 1pt e.w. Jon Rahm 10/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 3rd
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