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There was an element of the ‘football transfer window’ as last minute additions to teams were finalised in the week of the first event and the team lineups published officially only 48 hours before the first event. But the last minute addition of Tyrell Hatton to LIV Golf was only one element of an eventful three months since the Team Championship finished on 22nd October. There was relegation for some players from LIV Golf, a hugely dramatic LIV Golf Promotions event, the addition of World #3, Jon Rahm, and Adrian Meronk, a 13th team, movements of players between teams, and the addition of two Wild Card players to each event. Eventful to say the least. And with the announcement that the PGA Tour will sign a deal with Strategic Sports Group (SSG) and enable PGA Tour members to become equity holders in PGA Tour Enterprises, there appears to be no end in sight to this saga. Look for plenty more news stories over the course of this season as a professional golf remains as fractured as ever. And so on to LIV Golf Mayakoba. It is played at El Camaleón Golf Course, designed by Greg Norman, opened in 2006 and a year later hosted the Mayakoba Golf Classic on the PGA Tour. It would be the home of this PGA Tour event until 2022 and last year hosted the LIV Golf Mayakoba on the LIV Golf League, won by Charles Howell. Sea Isle 1 Paspalum is the dominant grass on this course, measuring 7,116 yards, which is an increase of 113 yards on last year. This mostly comes from lengthening tees, or new tees, on holes 9, 10, 12 and 18. The lengthening of the 18th to 489 yards will make the run of 18-1-2-3 a particularly challenging stretch with all four holes being over-par last year across all three rounds. The easiest stretch is 4-5-6-7-8 with all five holes playing under par last year. Here are a few angles that can be used this week. Angles to consider: 1. Driving is all-important at El Camaleón Here are a few quotes from player interviews last year. CHARLES HOWELL III: Well, I think Mayakoba will probably be the hardest driving golf course of the year. I haven't played every golf course we're going to play, but I have an idea. So I think Mayakoba places the most emphasis on driving the ball of anyplace we'll play. CARLOS ORTIZ: I actually think it's a lot different (the course in February compared to November). It's probably the best shape I've seen it. The rough is high. The greens are firmer and faster. The wind is a little bit stronger. I think overall the golf course plays faster. CHARLES HOWELL III: I think most guys would agree, if you drive the ball well in the fairway, a lot of holes you can make birdie on. If you miss it just slightly you can make double really quick. 2. Par-4 scoring is important The course features 11 rather than the traditional 10 par-four holes, so together with the above angle, this points to the par-four where the field separates. This is borne out by the stats from previous events here. Last year, Howell and Branden Grace ranked 1st for par-4 scoring and they finished 1st and 3rd on the leaderboard. And in five of the previous PGA Tour events here, the winner also ranked 1st in par-four scoring that week. The only exception was 2021 when Viktor Hovland won the event was ranked 2nd for par-four scoring while Carlos Ortiz topped that category and finished 2nd behind Hovland. 3. This is not the week for LIV Golf debutants With all the drama around Rahm, the new team, and Hatton, there are plenty of reasons to think that the off-course distractions will cause them to under-perform this week. Of course, given their quality, an ‘under-performance’ could still be a week in full contention. However, it is worth pointing out that last year’s debutants – Thomas Pieters, Brendan Steele, Danny Lee, and Dean Burmester – had slow starts in this season-opening event last year. Steele would ultimately finish 5th, but none of them broke par on the first day and none ranked inside the top-15 after rd1. Looking at those names highlights just how big the signings of Rahm, Hatton and Meronk are this year, but there is unlikely to be value in their odds as they acclimatise to the nature of LIV Golf events. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Dustin Johnson
The standout player of the 2022 season had, by his own admission, a season to forget last year. He did win the Tulsa event, but finished inside the top-10 in only seven of 14 LIV Golf events. In interview, he admitted that he "probably could have put in some more work. I didn’t, and it was a choice that I made." He isn’t going to repeat that. "So, this year, I’ve been putting in a little more work, I’m going to play better." The addition of such marquee players is the focus that he needs and he is expected to respond accordingly. Typically seen as a big-hitter, but his game is much more rounded than that. In the LIV Golf Bedminster, for example, he finished 11th, but ranked first for greens in regulation, total driving and ball-striking. In terms of the whole 2014 season, he ranked 2nd in total driving so this is a course that should suit. He didn’t play well here last year, but motivation seems to be fully restored. Finally, there is the Paspalum factor. He has averaged 68.43 over the last five years on Paspalum greens – the third best in this field. He is very comfortable on this surface. Louis Oosthuizen
When it comes to control off the tee, there are few better in this field than Oosthuizen. Even though he had a relatively poor LIV Golf season last year – 2nd in Tucson, 4th in London and 6th in DC being his only top-10 finishes – he still ranked 3rd in driving accuracy. That should keep him in-play, and now he has the confidence in his game to win on this Tour. He won back-to-back events on the DP World Tour in December (Alfred Dunhill Championship and Mauritius Open); his first Tour wins since 2018. He looked like a player back to his best and on a course that rewards ball striking and accuracy, he can win for the third consecutive event, Tips 1-1; -3.00pts 1.5pts e.w. Dustin Johnson 20/1 (available generally 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 5th 1.5pts e.w. Louis Oosthuizen 30/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 8th
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