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And so the drama continues. LIV Golf continues to dominate the headlines. There had been an expectation that things would settle down after the frenetic opening couple of events – the marquee signings of Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton before the first event, which was then decided by a playoff in the dark, and the second event played in Vegas only a few miles away from the Superbowl being played that same weekend. Now, after weeks of rumours, Anthony Kim has returned to professional golf as a wildcard player for the rest of the season. Expectations may be low for his performances on the course, but it is still great to see him back. Hopefully, he will be competitive at some point this year. After the unfamiliarity of Las Vegas Country Club, it is a welcome return to Royal Greens Golf and Country Club. The course only opened in 2017, but it has staged two LIV Golf events and five Saudi Internationals, of which the first three were on the DP World Tour. All seven events have been won by players competing this week. The par-70 course is short, measuring only 7,048 yards, which is an increase of only 38 yards since the inaugural Saudi International. There are two par-4s which measure at least 470 yards (6th and 13th) and these ranked as the second-hardest and hardest holes, respectively, last year. But otherwise, with four par-4s less than 400 yards, this is not a course on which length off the tee is particularly important. There are numerous dog-legs often framed by waste areas and ‘wadi’ drainage ditches so there is always an element of strategy involved at Royal Greens, but the course’s main defence is its location. Set alongside the Red Sea, wind should be a factor here. This week’s greens are Pure Dynasty Paspalum, which is prevalent on courses in the Middle East, with the exception of courses in Dubai. This type of grass is predominantly found in warm regions near the sea given its primary feature – salt tolerance (Bermuda grass is one of the worst grasses for salt tolerance). With plenty of course history to draw upon, here are a couple of angles that can be used this week. Angles to consider: 1. Past success in the Middle East Brooks Koepka has won both the LIV Golf events here – the only LIV golfer to be a repeat winner – while Dustin Johnson has won two of the five Saudi Internationals here. This is an indication that history is important at Royal Greens. The same goes for the other winners here: Abraham Ancer had three top-10 finishes on this course prior to winning last year’s Saudi International, while Graeme McDowell had secured four top-5 finishes in the region prior to winning the second Saudi International. The one exception is 2022 Saudi International winner, Harold Varner, but he famously holed a 90-foot eagle putt on the last hole to win by a shot. That may be the exception, but not enough to break the rule. An extension to this rule is that players should have a good history on the Paspalum greens which are so dominant in this region. 2. Greens in regulation is the key predictive stat this week The winner may not necessarily hit the most greens in regulation, but the nature of the course suggests that ball control and ball striking will be key this week and that is best proxied by greens in regulation stats. In the words of Graeme McDowell, “to me it's a big iron-play golf course”. In the words of Abraham Ancer, “But the wind is always up. It's a golf course that you have to be really accurate. I think you have to be a good ball striker, and you've got to hit it good off the tee, as well”. There are very few player comments that suggest anything other than ball-striking and ball control is paramount this week. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Paul Casey
With two top-5 finishes in his last three appearances here, this is clearly a course that suits, plus he has four Tour wins in the Middle East, most recently the 2021 Dubai Desert Classic. A player who has always been exceptional tee-to-green – he leads the greens in regulation stats for LIV Golf events over the past 12 months – he has been one to frustrate on the greens. There were encouraging signs in Las Vegas when he ranked 4th for putting average, and in terms of average score over the last five years on course with Paspalum greens, he ranks 4th in this field. He opened with a 63 to hold the first round lead in Las Vegas, ultimately finishing 5th, so his form is good. Sergio Garcia
Garcia is another with a proven record on this course and in the Middle East, finishing 3rd in both the LIV Golf events here as well as being a two-time winner in the region, most recently in 2017 Dubai Desert Classic. This is a course that he likes. In his own words, “I've been fortunate to play fairly well here, pretty much every time I've played. Obviously there's some things about the course that I enjoy and I like. I'm usually a fairly good wind player, and it always blows here, so that kind of helps”. As well as finishing in the top-3 in both LIV Golf events here, this was also the venue for the Fireballs GC to win the Team Championship last year. That is a lot of positive memories for the team captain who would have won the season-opening event in Mexico had Joaquin’s Niemann wayward drive on the first playoff hole not bounced so fortuitously back to safety off a tree. Charles Howell
If Ancer’s description of the course (above) is valid, then Howell should fare well this week. He finished 6th here in last year’s LIV golf event and ranked 1st in driving accuracy and 2nd in greens in regulation that week. A top-5 finish in Mexico shows that he has maintained his form from last year (when he won the LIV Golf Mayakoba event) and in terms of putting on Paspalum greens, he ranks 3rd in this field in terms of scoring average over the last five years on these courses. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Paul Casey 33/1 (available generally 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 29th 1pt e.w. Sergio Garcia 22/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 15th 1pt e.w. Charles Howell 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Spreadex, Sporting Index 1/5 1-2-3-4-5) 6th
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