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This feels like a quiet week in the LIV Golf world. No eve-of-season-opener marquee signings, no Superbowl along the road and no return of a much-loved player from a different era. Of course, it’s never tranquil in this world and this week the news is dominated by two items: Joaquin Nieman and the OWGR. Niemann received an invite to the PGA Championship, a couple of weeks after receiving an invite to the Masters, while Greg Norman announced that LIV Golf were withdrawing their application for accreditation from the OWGR. Both issues focused the news on the validity of the OWGR, which is firmly in the LIV Golf narrative. And so to this week’s event. Following on from Valderrama, LIV Golf has secured another of the best courses formerly on the DP World Tour. Hong Kong Fold Club opened with the ‘Old Course’ in 1889 and then extended with the ‘New Course’ in 1931. The course used this week is a composite course and is one of the oldest courses used in Tour golf. It has hosted the Hong Kong Open since 1959. Given the age of the composite course and the famous lack of space in Hong Kong, it is no surprise that this is both a short course and a narrow one. The par is 70 with only two par-fives and it is only 6,710 yards in length. That said, according to Dustin Johnson, driver will be used hit on six or seven of the holes (Bryson DeChambeau suggested the number was three). With the players ‘hitting to a spot’ off the tee, the course will play longer than its yardage, but this is still not a long course. It doesn’t feel like a modern course and that is appeal of the composite layout at Fanling. The greens are small and this puts an even greater emphasis on ball control. However, after the complaints of the greens last week, there is widespread praise for the Bermudagrass greens this week. This could well be a description of Valderrama. With plenty of course history to draw upon, here are a couple of angles that can be used this week. Angles to consider: 1. Ball control is paramount A look back at past winners here is supportive of this trend. It is not necessarily that they are particularly accurate off the tee (big-hitting, but generally wayward, 2014 winner, Scott Hend, is evidence of this) as driver will be used, at most, on only half the par-4s and par-5s. It is the ability to control and shape the ball that is important here. In the words of DeChambeau, “I grew up sort of at a golf club like this that's pretty tight and you have to sort of shape your ball and hit your irons really well”. 2. The par-4s are key to scoring With two fewer par-5s than on a typical Tour course, performance on the par-4s should be important. This is also borne out by recent history here. In each of the last four Tour events at Hong Kong Golf Club, the winner has ranked 1st for par-4 scoring that week, and in three of the last four events, the first two on the leaderboard have been ranked the first two for par-4 scoring that week. Their important lies not just in terms of their number, but in their variety. There are three par-4s in excess of 460 yards, including the 1st hole which is typically into the wind and the 493-yard 9th hole which is typically the hardest hole on the course. Alongside this, there are a number of short par-4s, including the 288-yard 4th hole. The course may be short in total, but the variety of holes means that, as Dustin Johnson said “it's a golf course where you hit all your clubs in your bag, and there's a lot of different ways to play every hole. If you want to hit a lot of drivers you can or you can lay back”. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Paul Casey
Like many others, Casey struggled on the greens in Saudi Arabia last week, but he still maintained his impressive ball striking, ranking inside the top-3 for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation. Only Jason Kokrak has a higher greens in regulation percentage in LIV Golf events over the past year. He has played this course previously – a top-20 finish last time out in 2012 – and a top-5 finish in Las Vegas confirms that he has the form and the game to play well here. Dustin Johnson
It has been Niemann rather than Jon Rahm who has dominated LIV Golf so far this year with the Chilean winning two of the three events so far in 2024. Johnson won the other (Las Vegas), as well as finishing in the top-5 in Mayakoba. He finished mid-table last week, but in interview he said that he played much better than his score and that he just had a tough time on the greens. Most importantly, he was here and practising on this week’s course earlier than most of his competitors. While they acknowledged in yesterday’s interviews that they had played nine holes, if any at all, Johson played a full 18 holes on Tuesday in preparation for this event. Given that lack of preparation is a common charge against him, this augurs well for this week. Matthew Wolff
As one of the bigger hitters in the game, it would be easy to discount his chances on this short, tight course, but the variety of holes and the variety of strategies available to play each hole, as outlined above, points to this not being a particular detriment. This is a course that shouldn’t harm him and may even reward his attacking game, if controlled and if his ball striking is good. He did withdraw partway through the second last week with illness, but his form and ball-striking had been good heading into that event. He finished 4th in Las Vegas and then competed in the International Series Oman, finishing 7th. Tips 1-2; +5.00pts 1pt e.w. Paul Casey 50/1 (LiveScoreBet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5) 2nd (playoff loss) 1pt e.w. Dustin Johnson 16/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5) 21st 1pt e.w. Matthew Wolff 66/1 (888sport 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 45th
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