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There has been just enough time to get our breath back after the nature of DeChambeau’s victory in the U.S. Open and the celebration that took place the following week, most notably at the LIV Golf Nashville event. So here we go again. Another three-week spell with two LIV Golf events and a Major, the oldest Major, in the middle. There was an incredible momentum carried into the last LIV Golf event, will it be the same again this time around? Given what happened last month, little is remembered of the first week of the last three-week leg, the event in Houston. It is doubtful that this will be the case with this three-week leg. This will be first LIV Golf event held in Spain since Jon Rahm joined LIV Golf to add the already-strong Spanish contingent playing this week – Sergio Garcia is a honorary member here – and they are playing at Valderrama, the most famous course in Spain. This is a course that had a long history on the DP World Tour prior to hosting the LIV Golf event last year, as well as staging the 1997 Ryder Cup. It staged the season-ending Volvo Masters between 1988 and 1996 and again between 2002 and 2008, while also staging the WGC-American Express Championship in 1999 and 2000. After staging the Andalucía Masters in 2010 and 2011, Valderrama disappeared from the DP World Tour schedule for a number of years before returning in 2016 for the Open de Espana and the re-convened Andalucía Masters from 2017 until 2022. And then there was last year’s LIV Golf event won by Talor Gooch. That means that there is plenty of history to draw upon. The course is tough, unusually so for a Ryder Cup course which normally reward attaching play. The fairways are narrow, sloped and lined with cork trees, while the greens are much smaller than average for a Tour event, but are fast and undulating. Despite the famous 17th hole, water only features on three holes at Valderrama. Hitting the fairways will be important, but far from sufficient for a good score here. Here are a few quotes from this week’s interview on this. DeChambeau: “For me I can play long irons out here, hit the fairway, hit good irons and good wedges in, and if my putting is on I'll have a good chance”. Stenson: “For me, I normally carry three fairway woods, or driver, 3-wood, 4-wood. But this week, my driving iron and my 2-iron is in the bag instead of my 4-wood. That's really the one thing, with similarity, I'm going to hitting that one quite a lot off the tee here”. And with safety off the tee a focus, that means longer shots into the green. Rahm: “It can gust here pretty good. It's a big difference depending on the direction. I think when the wind is into on 12 or 15, being able to hit those greens is, you know, 4-iron plus in hand, it's difficult”. There is plenty of course form to draw upon to identify the key element of the game to score well here, but the Open Championship is also a factor, so here are a couple of angles that can be used this week. Angles to consider: 1. Scrambling is the key stat this week This is evident from the Scoring Analysis page here: https://www.tour-tips.com/LIV/ScoringAnalysis.htm. It is unusual for scrambling to be the most important metric, but this makes perfect sense given the very small greens (and the difficulty of finding the fairways) at Valderrama. Between 2019 and 2021 (the first three years that strokes gained stats were available on the DP World Tour), the winner here has ranked 1st-2nd-1st in strokes gained: around the green. Over the same period, the winner ranked 2nd-5th-1st in scrambling. The winner in 2022 also ranked 1st in scrambling. Little wonder that it is so evident on the Scoring Analysis page. 2. Avoid players who are favoured to far well in the Open Championship week The LIV Golf Houston event was foreshadowed by the U.S. Open and it helped lead to an unfamiliar leaderboard. The event was won by Carlos Ortiz, with Adrian Meronk runner-up and David Puig and Patrick Reed in third place. Ortiz had been a best-price 40/1 before the event and none of the others were lower than 30/1. As with the Houston event, the placing of this event the week before a Major is to help the LIV Golf players prepare for that event. Mickelson and Stenson have highlighted how a focus on iron play with the expected winds will be a useful preparation for next week. That means a better opportunity for some this week and a potential loss of focus for others. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Paul Casey
It is surely only a matter of time before Casey wins a LIV Golf event. He has been very consistent, with top-10 finishes in his last two starts, and losing a playoff in Hong Kong around a similar tight tree-lined course. He has plenty of history on this course with top-30 finishes in his last seven visits and he led the field in scrambling in Miami as well as being second in that category in Hong Kong. Not playing next week, this is a good opportunity for Casey to secure his first win since 2021. Louis Oosthuizen
Oosthuizen is playing the Open Championship next week, an event he has won (2010) and lost out in a playoff (2015), both times at St Andrews, but his work-life balance is such that he will not be overly distracted by next week’s event. Valderrama is a perfect fit for the #1 ranked player in LIV Golf in terms of scrambling. He made his debut on this course last year and improved his score every round. He will fare even better this year, particularly he showed that he is still competitive with back-to-back wins on the DP World Tour in December and three runner-up finishes in his last eight starts. Brooks Koepka
With four top-10 finishes in his last six Open Championship starts, Koepka may be considered one of the favourites for next week and the strength of his game is not necessarily his scrambling, but he hasn’t been available at these odds since winning the LIV Golf Singapore event. And he is certainly a player under the radar with DeChambeau taking some much of the spotlight. He has finished in the top-30 but not really threatened in the last two Majors and he has finished 9th and 42nd in his two LIV Golf starts since that win in Singapore. But he finished 3rd in this event last year and has a very good win conversion rate. Too good a player for these odds in this field. Tips 1-2; +0.60pts 1pt e.w. Paul Casey 35/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 17th 1pt e.w. Louis Oosthuizen 28/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 4th 1pt e.w. Brooks Koepka 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 27th
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