Determinants of Scoring in the Open de Espana

This analysis is based on scores and stats from individual rounds in the last ten Open de Espanas: 4,201 rounds in total.

Graphs: Absolute Correlation Coefficients with Score

Analytics: Importance of Each Metric in Determining Score

Random Forest Regressor and Feature Importance

Random Forest Regressor is an ensemble learning method that constructs multiple decision trees during training and outputs the average prediction. It combines the predictions of several models to improve accuracy and robustness.

Feature importance is a technique used to interpret a machine learning model. It refers to the score that quantifies the contribution of each feature to the prediction made by the model.

In a Random Forest, the importance of a feature is computed by looking at how much the feature decreases the impurity (e.g., variance for regression tasks) across all the trees in the forest. The more a feature decreases the impurity, the more important it is considered.

The calculated importance scores for all features are then normalized to give relative importance as a percentage. This shows the relative contribution of each feature to the prediction task.

Interpreting Feature Importance

Features with high relative importance percentages have a strong impact on the model's predictions. They are crucial for accurate predictions and indicate key areas where performance matters most.

Features with low relative importance have a minimal impact on the model's predictions. While they can still contribute, they are less critical.

Three Largest Positive Differences (More Important at Open de Espana):

Three Largest Negative Differences (Less Important at Open de Espana):

Summary: Predicting Performance at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid

This appears to be a putting and short game specialist's course. The course characteristics heavily favour players who excel on and around the greens rather than those who rely on driving prowess.

Key Success Factors:

  • Elite Putting: With SGP importance 58% higher than tour average, putting performance is the single most critical skill
  • Scoring Efficiency: The elevated importance of PPGIR (+36% vs tour average) indicates that converting green-side opportunities into birdies is crucial
  • Short Game Excellence: Higher importance of Scrambling and SGATG suggests players must recover effectively from missed greens
  • Distance Doesn't Matter: Both driving distance and accuracy show minimal predictive value, suggesting a course where positioning and finesse trump power

Top 5 Ranked Players - 2025 Open de Espana

The table below shows the top-5 ranked players and their average estimated scores from the different Random Forest models above.

Rank Player Avg Score
1 Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 67.98
2 Jon Rahm 68.07
3 Haotong Li 68.13
4 Marco Penge 68.14
5 David Micheluzzi 68.19

Estimated scores for all players can be found here.