Simulation Results: Catalunya Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	0.43%	233	226		64
Adam Blomme	0.13%	769	901		17
Adri Arnaus	0.15%	667	301		54
Adrian Otaegui	0.86%	116	51		78
Albert Boneta	0.18%	556	351		125
Albin Bergstrom	0.09%	1111	501		43
Alejandro Del Rey	1.37%	73	46		3
Alexander Levy	0.40%	250	251		31
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	0.05%	2000	501		25
Andreas Halvorsen	0.44%	227	151		31
Andres Gallegos	0.04%	2500	1001		59
Andrew Johnston	0.37%	270	151		37
Angel Ayora	3.95%	25	17		103
Angel Hidalgo	0.45%	222	151		64
Anthony Quayle	0.34%	294	226		89
Antoine Rozner	2.47%	40	46	0.30%	17	-0.3	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Schmidt	0.51%	196	151		78
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.12%	833	651		31
Bernd Wiesberger	2.10%	48	41		13
Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.13%	88	81		89
Brandon Stone	1.04%	96	86		103
Callum Tarren	0.28%	357	351		70
Cameron Adam	0.32%	313	401	0.10%	89	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Clement Charmasson	0.19%	526	501		154
Clement Sordet	0.41%	244	276		103
Connor Mckinney	0.05%	2000	751		78
Dan Bradbury	1.35%	74	46		6
Dan Erickson	0.09%	1111	701		114
Daniel Gavins	0.00%	10000	4001
Daniel Rodrigues	1.47%	68	56		43
Daniel Van Tonder	0.34%	294	126		78
Daniel Young	0.38%	263	201		89
Darius Van Driel	1.54%	65	56		114
David Law	0.41%	244	176		17
David Micheluzzi	0.23%	435	401		125
David Ravetto	0.45%	222	111		43
Davis Bryant	0.63%	159	91		31
Dylan Frittelli	0.56%	179	151		125
Dylan Naidoo	0.10%	1000	601		64
Eddie Pepperell	1.03%	97	51		17
Edoardo Molinari	0.27%	370	251		156
Euan Walker	0.40%	250	201		114
Eugenio Chacarra	2.34%	43	26		10
Ewen Ferguson	2.90%	34	26		25
Fabrizio Zanotti	0.48%	208	276	0.10%	125	-0.1	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Felix Mory	0.12%	833	501		114
Filippo Celli	0.15%	667	401		51
Francesco Laporta	1.14%	88	56		89
Francesco Molinari	1.53%	65	51		125
Fred Biondi	0.27%	370	351		138
Freddy Schott	0.85%	118	67		89
Gavin Green	0.01%	10000	751		145
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	0.03%	3333	1251		138
Grant Forrest	1.19%	84	86		148
Gregorio De Leo	1.03%	97	71		70
Guido Migliozzi	1.34%	75	36		103
Hennie Du Plessis	1.62%	62	26		103
Hugo Townsend	0.39%	256	161		43
Hunter Logan	0.01%	10000	2001		148
Ivan Cantero	0.14%	714	351		17
J.C. Ritchie	1.38%	72	67		3
Jack Buchanan	0.07%	1429			138
Jack Senior	0.36%	278	301		37
Jack Yule	0.00%	10000	3001		64
Jacob Skov Olesen	2.79%	36	29		114
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.59%	169	126		59
James Morrison	0.36%	278	181		76
Jason Scrivener	0.61%	164	151		37
Jayden Schaper	2.26%	44	17		25
Jeff Winther	0.88%	114	126	0.10%	43	-0.1	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jens Dantorp	0.58%	172	181		125
Jeong Weon Ko	0.06%	1667	901		114
Joakim Lagergren	0.74%	135	126		17
Joe Dean	0.57%	175	161		64
Joel Girrbach	0.42%	238	201		78
Joel Moscatel	0.02%	5000	901		78
Johannes Veerman	0.54%	185	151		153
Jonathan Broomhead	0.15%	667	601		37
Joost Luiten	0.80%	125	91		89
Jorge Campillo	1.66%	60	51		25
Josep Maria Serra Busquet	0.00%	10000	1251		125
Joshua Berry	0.05%	2000	1001		103
Jovan Rebula	0.02%	5000	1001		59
Julien Guerrier	1.92%	52	41		125
Junghwan Lee	0.25%	400	276		89
Kazuma Kobori	1.20%	83	81		6
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.56%	179	141		6
Kota Kaneko	1.85%	54	46		89
Lucas Bjerregaard	0.29%	345	401		17
Luke List	0.19%	526	201		138
M.J. Daffue	0.64%	156	111		64
Manuel Elvira	0.66%	152	111		78
Marcel Schneider	1.00%	100	126	0.20%	37	-0.2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcus Armitage	1.80%	56	46		145
Marcus Helligkilde	0.02%	5000	301		89
Marcus Kinhult	0.48%	208	126		54
Martin Couvra	1.52%	66	41		10
Matteo Manassero	1.35%	74	51		114
Matthew Baldwin	0.31%	323	251		54
Matthew Southgate	0.23%	435	451		78
Maximilian Kieffer	0.21%	476	276		78
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.29%	345	181		89
Michael Alexander Mjaaseth	0.08%	1250	251		145
Michael Hollick	0.21%	476	351		70
Mike Toorop	0.06%	1667	751		155
Nacho Elvira	0.90%	111	81		25
Nathan Kimsey	1.87%	53	34		103
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.34%	294	226		114
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.66%	152	111		51
Ockie Strydom	0.04%	2500	1251		152
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.45%	222	161		3
Oliver Lindell	2.56%	39	31		10
Pablo Ereno Perez	0.31%	323	201		89
Pablo Larrazabal	0.12%	833	401		103
Palmer Jackson	0.02%	5000			148
Paul Waring	0.65%	154	111		13
Quentin Debove	0.07%	1429	501		103
Quim Vidal	0.17%	588	251		59
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.90%	111	91		6
Renato Paratore	0.15%	667	401		78
Ricardo Gouveia	0.56%	179	151		13
Richard Sterne	0.30%	333	251		138
Richie Ramsay	0.97%	103	151	0.30%	17	-0.3	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rikuya Hoshino	0.47%	213	151		43
Robin Williams	0.15%	667	601		148
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.23%	435	151		54
Romain Langasque	0.91%	110	126	0.10%	70	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ross Fisher	0.20%	500	426		51
Ryan Peake	0.07%	1429	751		125
Ryggs Johnston	0.04%	2500	751		125
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.83%	120	91		76
Sam Bairstow	0.94%	106	91		43
Santiago Tarrio	0.08%	1250	501		103
Scott Jamieson	0.13%	769	251		54
Sean Crocker	0.46%	217	176		89
Sebastian Garcia	0.23%	435	201		114
Sebastian Soderberg	0.80%	125	151	0.10%	89	-0.1	William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shaun Norris	0.90%	111	81		2
Shubhankar Sharma	0.29%	345	251		103
Simon Forsstrom	0.20%	500	601		138
Stefano Mazzoli	0.14%	714	501		13
Tapio Pulkkanen	0.41%	244	176		138
Tobias Jonsson	0.65%	154	161		70
Todd Clements	1.17%	85	67		114
Tom Vaillant	1.01%	99	91		31
Ugo Coussaud	2.34%	43	51	0.40%	25	-0.4	Betfred: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Veer Ahlawat	0.19%	526	401		125
Vicente Mestre Carceller	0.00%	10000	1501		125
Victor Pastor	0.05%	2000	751		125
Wenyi Ding	1.80%	56	36		59
Yanhan Zhou	0.28%	357	101		78
Yannik Paul	0.12%	833	601		43
Yurav Premlall	0.10%	1000	601		1
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.50%	200	131		37
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.19%	526	501		31
Zander Lombard	0.44%	227	151		75

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	0.62%	161	151		8
Adam Blomme	0.30%	333	276		42
Adri Arnaus	0.37%	270	151		70
Adrian Otaegui	0.82%	122	67		42
Albert Boneta	0.39%	256	161		42
Albin Bergstrom	0.28%	357	251		25
Alejandro Del Rey	1.09%	92	67		42
Alexander Levy	0.66%	152	151		2
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	0.20%	500	251		70
Andreas Halvorsen	0.62%	161	126		25
Andres Gallegos	0.23%	435	351		88
Andrew Johnston	0.53%	189	111		107
Angel Ayora	1.88%	53	34		25
Angel Hidalgo	0.62%	161	101		88
Anthony Quayle	0.58%	172	151		70
Antoine Rozner	1.41%	71	56		16
Ben Schmidt	0.65%	154	111		107
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.30%	333	251		16
Bernd Wiesberger	1.25%	80	61		25
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.98%	102	81		88
Brandon Stone	0.88%	114	81		127
Callum Tarren	0.47%	213	161		70
Cameron Adam	0.52%	192	161		42
Clement Charmasson	0.35%	286	251		155
Clement Sordet	0.58%	172	151		88
Connor Mckinney	0.19%	526	276		88
Dan Bradbury	1.07%	93	67		42
Dan Erickson	0.30%	333	251		107
Daniel Gavins	0.03%	3333	501
Daniel Rodrigues	1.07%	93	67		42
Daniel Van Tonder	0.50%	200	101		88
Daniel Young	0.51%	196	151		88
Darius Van Driel	1.19%	84	67		88
David Law	0.57%	175	141		2
David Micheluzzi	0.48%	208	161		136
David Ravetto	0.59%	169	91		25
Davis Bryant	0.82%	122	91		8
Dylan Frittelli	0.73%	137	111		107
Dylan Naidoo	0.31%	323	201		25
Eddie Pepperell	0.95%	105	67		42
Edoardo Molinari	0.47%	213	151		140
Euan Walker	0.49%	204	141		140
Eugenio Chacarra	1.41%	71	41		25
Ewen Ferguson	1.53%	65	46		2
Fabrizio Zanotti	0.70%	143	151		107
Felix Mory	0.37%	270	251		88
Filippo Celli	0.36%	278	201		70
Francesco Laporta	1.08%	93	67		70
Francesco Molinari	1.04%	96	61		42
Fred Biondi	0.47%	213	126		140
Freddy Schott	0.83%	120	81		8
Gavin Green	0.12%	833	251		88
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	0.16%	625	251		145
Grant Forrest	1.02%	98	76		152
Gregorio De Leo	0.90%	111	81		42
Guido Migliozzi	1.02%	98	51		88
Hennie Du Plessis	1.17%	85	46		88
Hugo Townsend	0.61%	164	111		42
Hunter Logan	0.11%	909	451		127
Ivan Cantero	0.35%	286	151		16
J.C. Ritchie	1.11%	90	67		70
Jack Buchanan	0.30%	333			140
Jack Senior	0.52%	192	151		25
Jack Yule	0.07%	1429	501		25
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.60%	63	41		25
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.72%	139	91		42
James Morrison	0.55%	182	141		16
Jason Scrivener	0.75%	133	111		42
Jayden Schaper	1.44%	69	34		88
Jeff Winther	0.87%	115	91		70
Jens Dantorp	0.68%	147	141		70
Jeong Weon Ko	0.25%	400	276		70
Joakim Lagergren	0.75%	133	91		25
Joe Dean	0.70%	143	111		16
Joel Girrbach	0.55%	182	151		127
Joel Moscatel	0.15%	667	251		25
Johannes Veerman	0.68%	147	91		145
Jonathan Broomhead	0.41%	244	251		42
Joost Luiten	0.76%	132	91		107
Jorge Campillo	1.17%	85	67		42
Josep Maria Serra Busquet	0.07%	1429	351		107
Joshua Berry	0.22%	455	276		152
Jovan Rebula	0.16%	625	276		42
Julien Guerrier	1.31%	76	56		140
Junghwan Lee	0.46%	217	151		25
Kazuma Kobori	0.96%	104	81		70
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.72%	139	111		107
Kota Kaneko	1.24%	81	61		107
Lucas Bjerregaard	0.53%	189	161		5
Luke List	0.44%	227	151		70
M.J. Daffue	0.73%	137	91		88
Manuel Elvira	0.73%	137	101		42
Marcel Schneider	0.92%	109	126	0.10%	107	-0.1	QuinnBet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcus Armitage	1.26%	79	67		152
Marcus Helligkilde	0.13%	769	151		145
Marcus Kinhult	0.64%	156	91		88
Martin Couvra	1.16%	86	67		16
Matteo Manassero	1.04%	96	67		127
Matthew Baldwin	0.53%	189	151		16
Matthew Southgate	0.47%	213	161		42
Maximilian Kieffer	0.43%	233	151		107
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.48%	208	126		107
Michael Alexander Mjaaseth	0.29%	345	151		145
Michael Hollick	0.48%	208	161		5
Mike Toorop	0.22%	455	276		156
Nacho Elvira	0.83%	120	91		42
Nathan Kimsey	1.28%	78	51		70
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.50%	200	151		107
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.74%	135	91		107
Ockie Strydom	0.23%	435	276		107
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.62%	161	141		8
Oliver Lindell	1.49%	67	51		70
Pablo Ereno Perez	0.45%	222	101		136
Pablo Larrazabal	0.32%	313	201		42
Palmer Jackson	0.16%	625	276		107
Paul Waring	0.79%	127	101		42
Quentin Debove	0.26%	385	251		127
Quim Vidal	0.36%	278	151		42
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.87%	115	91		42
Renato Paratore	0.33%	303	176		88
Ricardo Gouveia	0.69%	145	111		8
Richard Sterne	0.50%	200	151		145
Richie Ramsay	0.95%	105	126	0.20%	88	-0.2	QuinnBet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rikuya Hoshino	0.68%	147	126		42
Robin Williams	0.36%	278	251		127
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.50%	200	111		70
Romain Langasque	0.88%	114	91		42
Ross Fisher	0.42%	238	201		25
Ryan Peake	0.25%	400	276		70
Ryggs Johnston	0.21%	476	251		145
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.82%	122	91		42
Sam Bairstow	0.91%	110	101		42
Santiago Tarrio	0.29%	345	251		127
Scott Jamieson	0.32%	313	151		70
Sean Crocker	0.59%	169	141		107
Sebastian Garcia	0.46%	217	151		88
Sebastian Soderberg	0.83%	120	111		107
Shaun Norris	0.92%	109	81		1
Shubhankar Sharma	0.56%	179	151		70
Simon Forsstrom	0.45%	222	201		136
Stefano Mazzoli	0.34%	294	251		5
Tapio Pulkkanen	0.55%	182	111		145
Tobias Jonsson	0.67%	149	111		8
Todd Clements	1.04%	96	81		127
Tom Vaillant	0.93%	108	91		8
Ugo Coussaud	1.36%	74	61		25
Veer Ahlawat	0.45%	222	176		136
Vicente Mestre Carceller	0.05%	2000	351		107
Victor Pastor	0.21%	476	276		107
Wenyi Ding	1.17%	85	61		25
Yanhan Zhou	0.49%	204	91		88
Yannik Paul	0.32%	313	251		25
Yurav Premlall	0.30%	333	251		42
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.62%	161	131		8
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.39%	256	176		16
Zander Lombard	0.61%	164	126		16

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Ugo Coussaud	2.34%	43	51	0.40%	25	-2	Betfred: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Antoine Rozner	2.47%	40	46	0.30%	17	-2	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Richie Ramsay	0.97%	103	151	0.30%	17	-2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Richie Ramsay	0.95%	105	126	0.20%	88	-1.5	QuinnBet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Marcel Schneider	0.92%	109	126	0.10%	107	-1.5	QuinnBet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and and the six advised each-way plays FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays will be posted on Tuesday afternoon once odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised. FRL plays will be posted on Wednesday or one day prior to the start of the event.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.