Simulation Results: KLM Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adri Arnaus	0.20%	500	401		55
Adrian Otaegui	0.70%	143	91		93
Albin Bergstrom	0.36%	278	351	0.10%	112	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alejandro Del Rey	1.06%	94	67		110
Alexander Levy	0.81%	123	126		48
Alvaro Quiros	0.01%	10000	2501		112
Andreas Halvorsen	0.63%	159	126		32
Andres Gallegos	0.03%	3333	1001
Andrew Johnston	0.94%	106	71
Andy Sullivan	0.94%	106	76		112
Angel Ayora	2.31%	43	21		3
Angel Hidalgo	0.28%	357	276		21
Anthony Quayle	0.28%	357	251		82
Antoine Rozner	1.86%	54	41		55
Ashun Wu	0.49%	204	251	0.10%	48	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Schmidt	0.72%	139	111		93
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.18%	556	501		133
Bernd Wiesberger	1.97%	51	29		21
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.82%	122	111		21
Brandon Stone	0.75%	133	101		48
Callum Tarren	0.19%	526	451		28
Calum Hill	1.16%	86	51		14
Cameron Adam	0.39%	256	301	0.10%	38	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Casey Jarvis	1.58%	63	29		82
Clement Charmasson	0.10%	1000	501		76
Connor Mckinney	0.04%	2500	2001		147
Connor Syme	0.31%	323	251		71
Daan Huizing	0.06%	1667	701		144
Dan Bradbury	1.49%	67	41		65
Daniel Gavins	0.00%	10000	5001		118
Daniel Hillier	2.43%	41	21		14
Daniel Rodrigues	0.67%	149	151		82
Daniel Young	0.29%	345	251		82
Danny Willett	0.32%	313	276		7
Darius Van Driel	1.16%	86	67		101
David Law	0.33%	303	176		45
David Micheluzzi	0.16%	625	401		149
David Ravetto	0.68%	147	86		14
Davis Bryant	1.11%	90	71		38
Dylan Frittelli	0.35%	286	176		48
Dylan Naidoo	0.15%	667	551		76
Eddie Pepperell	0.97%	103	61		60
Euan Walker	0.27%	370	301		101
Eugenio Chacarra	2.13%	47	36		1
Ewen Ferguson	2.07%	48	29		74
Fabrizio Zanotti	0.37%	270	251		101
Felix Mory	0.30%	333	401	0.10%	112	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Filippo Celli	0.48%	208	176		149
Floris De Haas	0.00%	10000	4001		149
Francesco Laporta	1.55%	65	51
Francesco Molinari	0.49%	204	91		32
Fred Biondi	0.26%	385	501	0.10%	101	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Frederic Lacroix	0.43%	233	101		70
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	0.02%	5000	2001		101
Grant Forrest	1.35%	74	67		76
Gregorio De Leo	1.33%	75	56		93
Guido Migliozzi	0.75%	133	91		28
Guus Lafeber	0.00%	10000	2001		139
Hennie Du Plessis	1.65%	61	41		76
Hugo Townsend	0.40%	250	251		126
Hunter Logan	0.02%	5000	2001		38
Ivan Cantero	0.52%	192	251	0.10%	82	-0.1	Betfred: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
J.C. Ritchie	1.43%	70	61		45
Jack Buchanan	0.13%	769			139
Jack Senior	0.34%	294	301		149
Jack Yule	0.01%	10000	2001		101
Jacob Skov Olesen	2.20%	45	29		55
James Morrison	0.34%	294	251		14
Jason Scrivener	0.81%	123	111		58
Jayden Schaper	2.28%	44	21		11
Jeff Winther	0.59%	169	151		131
Jens Dantorp	0.39%	256	301	0.10%	38	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeong Weon Ko	0.07%	1429	1001		126
Jerry Ji	0.02%	5000	1001		133
Joakim Lagergren	1.02%	98	91		112
Joe Dean	1.00%	100	86		3
Joel Girrbach	0.56%	179	141		149
Johannes Veerman	0.48%	208	126		93
Jonathan Broomhead	0.27%	370	351		144
Joost Luiten	1.49%	67	46		60
Jordan Gumberg	0.21%	476	251		21
Jorge Campillo	1.59%	63	56		82
Joshua Berry	0.09%	1111	1251
Julien Guerrier	1.35%	74	67		7
Kazuma Kobori	0.89%	112	81		28
Kevin Na	0.35%	286	226		118
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.46%	217	151		38
Kristoffer Broberg	0.02%	5000	501		139
Lars Van Der Vight	0.09%	1111	751		38
Lars Van Meijel	0.16%	625	501		101
Marcel Schneider	1.25%	80	81		73
Marcel Siem	0.21%	476	351		32
Marcus Armitage	1.35%	74	56		14
Marcus Helligkilde	0.11%	909	351		14
Marcus Kinhult	0.68%	147	101		71
Martin Couvra	1.29%	78	56		112
Mason Howell	0.25%	400	351		126
Matteo Manassero	0.95%	105	86		32
Matthew Baldwin	0.27%	370	251		66
Matthew Jordan	1.04%	96	67		76
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.49%	204	126		3
Michael Feuerstein	0.02%	5000	2501		118
Michael Hollick	0.27%	370	351		28
Mikael Lindberg	1.72%	58	36		60
Mike Toorop	0.03%	3333	1001		133
Nacho Elvira	0.69%	145	126		11
Nathan Kimsey	2.10%	48	31		74
Nevill Ruiter	0.00%	10000	1251		66
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.34%	294	251		66
Niklas Lemke	0.28%	357	251		93
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.42%	238	161		21
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.86%	116	151	0.20%	93	-0.2	Star Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Oliver Lindell	2.01%	50	34		2
Pablo Ereno Perez	0.54%	185	151
Pablo Larrazabal	0.14%	714	451		82
Paul Waring	0.71%	141	81		48
Pieter Werner	0.00%	10000	4001		126
Quentin Debove	0.11%	909	701		118
Quim Vidal	0.18%	556	501		131
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.56%	64	76	0.20%	66	-0.2	BetVictor: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Renato Paratore	0.15%	667	351		60
Ricardo Gouveia	1.25%	80	56		38
Richard Mansell	0.59%	169	101		82
Richard Sterne	0.85%	118	126	0.10%	11	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richie Ramsay	0.89%	112	141	0.20%	139	-0.2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rikuya Hoshino	0.74%	135	126		58
Robin Williams	0.22%	455	401		45
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.27%	370	201		118
Romain Langasque	0.69%	145	126
Romain Wattel	0.03%	3333	1001		118
Ross Fisher	0.29%	345	401		21
Ryan Peake	0.07%	1429	801		32
Ryggs Johnston	0.07%	1429	751		82
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.33%	303	226		48
Sam Bairstow	0.42%	238	151		101
Sami Valimaki	1.54%	65	36		10
Scott Jamieson	0.22%	455	251		21
Scott Woltering	0.00%	10000	2501		93
Sean Crocker	0.64%	156	141		82
Sebastian Garcia	0.24%	417	251		60
Sebastian Soderberg	0.47%	213	176		3
Simon Forsstrom	0.16%	625	601		110
Stefano Mazzoli	0.30%	333	351		48
Thriston Lawrence	1.00%	100	76
Tobias Jonsson	0.53%	189	176		133
Todd Clements	0.56%	179	101		76
Tom Vaillant	1.28%	78	71		82
Wenyi Ding	1.24%	81	61		133
Wil Besseling	0.32%	313	226		139
Wouter De Vries	0.10%	1000	1501		133
Yanhan Zhou	0.53%	189	101		9
Yannik Paul	0.21%	476	651	0.10%	101	-0.1	Unibet: 650/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yurav Premlall	0.48%	208	111		126
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.52%	192	151		32
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.21%	476	451		118
Zander Lombard	0.48%	208	151		93

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adri Arnaus	0.46%	217	181		11
Adrian Otaegui	0.92%	109	91		115
Albin Bergstrom	0.68%	147	181	0.10%	56	-0.1	Bet365: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alejandro Del Rey	1.07%	93	71		115
Alexander Levy	0.96%	104	101		6
Alvaro Quiros	0.05%	2000	451		115
Andreas Halvorsen	0.89%	112	111		26
Andres Gallegos	0.18%	556	251
Andrew Johnston	0.75%	133	76
Andy Sullivan	1.06%	94	76		39
Angel Ayora	1.76%	57	41		70
Angel Hidalgo	0.39%	256	126		56
Anthony Quayle	0.38%	263	151		115
Antoine Rozner	1.10%	91	56		56
Ashun Wu	0.79%	127	126		70
Ben Schmidt	0.92%	109	101		90
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.41%	244	181		115
Bernd Wiesberger	1.08%	93	41		11
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.99%	101	91		11
Brandon Stone	0.95%	105	91		39
Callum Tarren	0.29%	345	181		11
Calum Hill	0.83%	120	61		6
Cameron Adam	0.71%	141	181	0.20%	11	-0.2	Bet365: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Casey Jarvis	1.39%	72	46		132
Clement Charmasson	0.25%	400	201		11
Connor Mckinney	0.11%	909	401		153
Connor Syme	0.38%	263	111		70
Daan Huizing	0.25%	400	201		115
Dan Bradbury	0.96%	104	51		90
Daniel Gavins	0.04%	2500	501		132
Daniel Hillier	1.86%	54	41		26
Daniel Rodrigues	0.63%	159	111		11
Daniel Young	0.57%	175	126		90
Danny Willett	0.40%	250	181		39
Darius Van Driel	1.13%	88	71		90
David Law	0.60%	167	126		26
David Micheluzzi	0.25%	400	181		90
David Ravetto	0.89%	112	81		56
Davis Bryant	0.79%	127	71		26
Dylan Frittelli	0.59%	169	126		11
Dylan Naidoo	0.26%	385	181		70
Eddie Pepperell	0.75%	133	67		70
Euan Walker	0.56%	179	126		115
Eugenio Chacarra	1.65%	61	56		11
Ewen Ferguson	1.61%	62	46		26
Fabrizio Zanotti	0.68%	147	126		70
Felix Mory	0.35%	286	181		132
Filippo Celli	0.71%	141	126		26
Floris De Haas	0.02%	5000	451		149
Francesco Laporta	1.46%	68	67
Francesco Molinari	0.78%	128	76		11
Fred Biondi	0.52%	192	181		56
Frederic Lacroix	0.70%	143	101		56
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	0.13%	769	351		70
Grant Forrest	0.91%	110	67		139
Gregorio De Leo	0.92%	109	67		115
Guido Migliozzi	0.64%	156	81		26
Guus Lafeber	0.02%	5000	351		149
Hennie Du Plessis	1.06%	94	56		70
Hugo Townsend	0.64%	156	126		90
Hunter Logan	0.09%	1111	401		39
Ivan Cantero	0.49%	204	126		90
J.C. Ritchie	0.93%	108	71		90
Jack Buchanan	0.22%	455	226		151
Jack Senior	0.42%	238	181		139
Jack Yule	0.12%	833	401		56
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.64%	61	46		56
James Morrison	0.63%	159	151		39
Jason Scrivener	0.66%	152	91		115
Jayden Schaper	1.22%	82	36		26
Jeff Winther	0.84%	119	111		139
Jens Dantorp	0.42%	238	181		56
Jeong Weon Ko	0.28%	357	251		90
Jerry Ji	0.11%	909	251		139
Joakim Lagergren	1.06%	94	81		90
Joe Dean	0.74%	135	81		2
Joel Girrbach	0.77%	130	111		152
Johannes Veerman	0.74%	135	101		39
Jonathan Broomhead	0.34%	294	181		115
Joost Luiten	0.91%	110	56		11
Jordan Gumberg	0.31%	323	126		6
Jorge Campillo	0.96%	104	61		70
Joshua Berry	0.30%	333	351
Julien Guerrier	0.96%	104	67		1
Kazuma Kobori	1.05%	95	81		39
Kevin Na	0.64%	156	151		90
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.51%	196	111		115
Kristoffer Broberg	0.09%	1111	201		139
Lars Van Der Vight	0.31%	323	226		6
Lars Van Meijel	0.36%	278	201		90
Marcel Schneider	0.84%	119	76		70
Marcel Siem	0.50%	200	181		3
Marcus Armitage	0.91%	110	67		39
Marcus Helligkilde	0.24%	417	181		39
Marcus Kinhult	0.58%	172	91		26
Martin Couvra	1.35%	74	67		132
Mason Howell	0.41%	244	181		70
Matteo Manassero	0.76%	132	81		70
Matthew Baldwin	0.39%	256	126		56
Matthew Jordan	0.73%	137	71		115
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.74%	135	101		3
Michael Feuerstein	0.09%	1111	451		115
Michael Hollick	0.55%	182	181		11
Mikael Lindberg	1.47%	68	51		56
Mike Toorop	0.15%	667	276		139
Nacho Elvira	0.56%	179	101		70
Nathan Kimsey	1.18%	85	46		26
Nevill Ruiter	0.01%	10000	351		90
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.58%	172	151		132
Niklas Lemke	0.55%	182	126		26
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.67%	149	111		39
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.68%	147	111		90
Oliver Lindell	1.13%	88	51		11
Pablo Ereno Perez	0.50%	200	111
Pablo Larrazabal	0.44%	227	181		39
Paul Waring	0.61%	164	81		6
Pieter Werner	0.02%	5000	451		90
Quentin Debove	0.35%	286	226		70
Quim Vidal	0.42%	238	201		90
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.01%	99	76		90
Renato Paratore	0.32%	313	151		39
Ricardo Gouveia	0.88%	114	61		39
Richard Mansell	0.87%	115	91		70
Richard Sterne	0.67%	149	101		11
Richie Ramsay	1.08%	93	111	0.20%	139	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rikuya Hoshino	0.64%	156	91		70
Robin Williams	0.31%	323	181		56
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.51%	196	126		70
Romain Langasque	0.85%	118	101
Romain Wattel	0.16%	625	251		139
Ross Fisher	0.58%	172	181		39
Ryan Peake	0.16%	625	251		26
Ryggs Johnston	0.27%	370	251		39
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.57%	175	126		56
Sam Bairstow	0.43%	233	101		90
Sami Valimaki	0.95%	105	51		26
Scott Jamieson	0.45%	222	131		56
Scott Woltering	0.02%	5000	451		90
Sean Crocker	0.56%	179	101		90
Sebastian Garcia	0.52%	192	151		39
Sebastian Soderberg	0.47%	213	111		3
Simon Forsstrom	0.43%	233	201		90
Stefano Mazzoli	0.36%	278	181		90
Thriston Lawrence	1.13%	88	76
Tobias Jonsson	0.54%	185	111		70
Todd Clements	0.85%	118	81		90
Tom Vaillant	0.92%	109	71		70
Wenyi Ding	0.88%	114	67		115
Wil Besseling	0.42%	238	126		138
Wouter De Vries	0.18%	556	351		115
Yanhan Zhou	0.52%	192	81		39
Yannik Paul	0.42%	238	201		139
Yurav Premlall	0.72%	139	101		90
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.76%	132	111		11
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.51%	196	181		90
Zander Lombard	0.50%	200	101		115

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.56%	64	76	0.20%	66	-2	BetVictor: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Richie Ramsay	0.89%	112	141	0.20%	139	-2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.86%	116	151	0.20%	93	-2	Star Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Richie Ramsay	1.08%	93	111	0.20%	139	-1	Ladbrokes: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Cameron Adam	0.71%	141	181	0.20%	11	-1	Bet365: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Albin Bergstrom	0.68%	147	181	0.10%	56	-1	Bet365: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and and the six advised each-way plays FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays will be posted on Tuesday afternoon once odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised. FRL plays will be posted on Wednesday or one day prior to the start of the event.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.