Simulation Results: Italian Challenge Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Wallin	0.77%	130
Alejandro Aguilera	0.03%	3333
Alessandro Nodari	0.12%	833
Alex Goff	1.52%	66
Alexander Knappe	0.24%	417
Alfie Plant	0.53%	189
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.27%	370
Andrea Romano	0.36%	278
Andrew Wilson	2.79%	36
Anton Albers	0.97%	103
Arjun Prasad	0.19%	526
Aron Zemmer	1.20%	83
Asier Aguirre Izcue	0.06%	1667
Aymeric Laussot	0.05%	2000
Baard Skogen	1.21%	83
Bailey Gill	0.05%	2000
Bastien Amat	0.75%	133
Benjamin Hebert	1.27%	79
Benjamin Rusch	0.54%	185
Bjorn Akesson	0.61%	164
Borja Virto	1.01%	99
Callan Barrow	0.30%	333
Callum Farr	1.18%	85
Calum Fyfe	0.99%	101
Canon Claycomb	0.39%	256
Charles Huntzinger	0.92%	109
Charlie Forster	2.24%	45
Charlie Thornton	0.03%	3333
Chris Wood	0.43%	233
Christian Braunig	0.10%	1000
Christofer Blomstrand	1.30%	77
Christofer Rahm	0.58%	172
Christoffer Bring	0.05%	2000
Christoph Bleier	0.45%	222
Clay Seeber	0.02%	5000
Clement Guichard	0.10%	1000
Collin Adams	0.51%	196
Conor Gough	0.06%	1667
Conor Purcell	1.47%	68
Corey Shaun	0.17%	588
Daan Huizing	0.33%	303
Danny List	0.64%	156
David Horsey	2.37%	42
David Langley	0.23%	435
Deon Germishuys	1.56%	64
Dominic Clemons	0.04%	2500
Fabius Will Bradhering	0.04%	2500
Filip Mruzek	0.34%	294
Filippo Bergamaschi	0.12%	833
Flavio Michetti	0.09%	1111
Frank Kennedy	0.18%	556
Gary Hurley	1.48%	68
Gordan Brixi	0.01%	10000
Gregor Graham	1.24%	81
Haider Hussain	0.12%	833
Hamish Brown	1.87%	53
Haraldur Magnus	0.42%	238
Harley Smith	0.06%	1667
Henric Sturehed	0.04%	2500
Jack Floydd	0.04%	2500
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.07%	1429
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa	0.73%	137
James Meyer De Beco	0.43%	233
James Sugrue	0.12%	833
Jamie Rutherford	2.06%	49
Jan Schneider	0.59%	169
Jannik De Bruyn	2.78%	36
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.15%	667
Javier Calles Roman	0.35%	286
Jeppe Kristian Andersen	1.18%	85
Jeremy Freiburghaus	0.80%	125
Jerry Ji	0.30%	333
Jhared Hack	3.17%	32
John Gough	0.20%	500
John-Ross Galbraith	0.01%	10000
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.69%	145
Jovan Rebula	0.58%	172
Juan Salama	0.14%	714
Julien Brun	0.95%	105
Julien Quesne	0.75%	133
Julien Sale	2.46%	41
Kieran Cantley	0.05%	2000
Kim Koivu	0.20%	500
Kris Kim	0.02%	5000
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.01%	10000
Kristian Krogh Johannessen	1.24%	81
Lars Van Der Vight	0.28%	357
Lars Van Meijel	1.30%	77
Leon Acikalin	0.17%	588
Liam Johnston	0.02%	5000
Liam Nolan	0.42%	238
Linus Lang	0.07%	1429
Lorenzo Scalise	1.55%	65
Luca Galliano	0.07%	1429
Luca Memeo	0.07%	1429
Lucas Fallotico	0.02%	5000
Lucas Vacarisas	0.53%	189
Ludovico Addabbo	0.08%	1250
Lukas Nemecz	3.20%	31
M.J. Viljoen	0.95%	105
Manfredi Manica	0.03%	3333
Marc Warren	1.02%	98
Mario Galiano Aguilar	0.29%	345
Mark Power	1.20%	83
Martin Eriksson	0.24%	417
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon	0.20%	500
Matt Gilchrest	0.31%	323
Matteo Cristoni	0.44%	227
Matthias Schwab	0.25%	400
Matthis Besard	2.49%	40
Mattias Varjun	0.01%	10000
Max Kennedy	0.79%	127
Maxence Giboudot	0.90%	111
Maximilien Sturdza	0.02%	5000
Michael Hirmer	0.36%	278
Nick Bachem	0.24%	417
Nick Carlson	1.05%	95
Oliver Gillberg	1.38%	72
Pablo Alperi Lopez	0.35%	286
Palmer Jackson	0.27%	370
Pedro Figueiredo	1.60%	63
Per Langfors	1.13%	88
Philipp Katich	0.31%	323
Pierre Pineau	0.55%	182
Rasmus Holmberg	0.04%	2500
Robert Foley	0.09%	1111
Robert Moran	0.28%	357
Robin Petersson	0.48%	208
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	1.11%	90
Ronan Kleu	0.41%	244
Ronan Mullarney	0.17%	588
Ryan Van Velzen	0.91%	110
Sam Jones	0.63%	159
Sam Locke	0.21%	476
Saptak Talwar	1.83%	55
Sebastian Friedrichsen	1.55%	65
Soren Broholt Lind	0.11%	909
Steven Brown	0.91%	110
Tadeas Tetak	0.49%	204
Taylor Carter	0.05%	2000
Tiger Christensen	0.51%	196
Tobias Eden	0.19%	526
Tom Lewis	1.47%	68
Tomas Gouveia	0.25%	400
Varun Chopra	0.63%	159
Vasco Alves	0.02%	5000
Victor Bjorlow	0.13%	769
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.15%	667
Wilco Nienaber	2.00%	50
Will Enefer	3.33%	30
Will Hopkins	0.22%	455
Will Porter	0.20%	500
William Vold	0.00%	10000
Wouter De Vries	0.49%	204

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN:
WIN:
WIN:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and and the six advised each-way plays FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays will be posted on Tuesday afternoon once odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised. FRL plays will be posted on Wednesday or one day prior to the start of the event.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.