Simulation Results: Challenge de Catalunya

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Wallin	1.09%	92
Albert Boneta	1.07%	93
Alejandro Aguilera	0.03%	3333
Alessandro Nodari	0.18%	556
Alex Esmatges	0.01%	10000
Alex Goff	0.38%	263
Alexander Knappe	0.43%	233
Alfie Plant	1.07%	93
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	1.65%	61
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.32%	313
Andres Gallegos	0.59%	169
Andrew Wilson	2.61%	38
Anton Albers	0.50%	200
Antonio Hortal	0.02%	5000
Asier Aguirre Izcue	0.04%	2500
Baard Skogen	0.65%	154
Bailey Gill	0.01%	10000
Barclay Brown	0.24%	417
Bastien Amat	0.18%	556
Benjamin Hebert	1.02%	98
Benjamin Rusch	0.48%	208
Bjorn Akesson	0.87%	115
Borja Virto	0.58%	172
Bryce Easton	1.27%	79
Callan Barrow	0.36%	278
Callum Tarren	1.51%	66
Calum Fyfe	1.50%	67
Canon Claycomb	0.23%	435
Carlos Pigem	0.26%	385
Charles Huntzinger	0.79%	127
Charlie Forster	0.67%	149
Chris Wood	1.50%	67
Christofer Blomstrand	0.84%	119
Christofer Rahm	0.16%	625
Clement Sordet	1.19%	84
Collin Adams	0.18%	556
Conor Gough	0.04%	2500
Conor Purcell	0.36%	278
Corey Shaun	0.07%	1429
Daan Huizing	0.23%	435
Dan Erickson	0.62%	161
Daniel Gale	0.88%	114
Danny List	0.45%	222
David Horsey	1.82%	55
Deon Germishuys	1.36%	74
Dominic Clemons	0.01%	10000
Eduard Rousaud	0.11%	909
Fabrizio Zanotti	1.85%	54
Filip Mruzek	0.27%	370
Frank Kennedy	0.32%	313
Gary Hurley	0.74%	135
Gavin Green	0.26%	385
George Bloor	0.24%	417
Gordan Brixi	0.00%	10000
Gregor Graham	0.75%	133
Hamish Brown	2.51%	40
Haraldur Magnus	0.52%	192
Henric Sturehed	0.16%	625
Hugo Camelo Ferreira	0.00%	10000
Hunter Logan	0.15%	667
Hurly Long	0.48%	208
Jack Buchanan	0.63%	159
Jack Floydd	0.12%	833
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.15%	667
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa	0.48%	208
James Meyer De Beco	0.82%	122
James Sugrue	0.23%	435
Jamie Rutherford	0.90%	111
Jan Schneider	0.41%	244
Jannik De Bruyn	1.65%	61
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.06%	1667
Javier Calles Roman	0.27%	370
Jeppe Kristian Andersen	0.94%	106
Jeremy Freiburghaus	0.41%	244
Jhared Hack	2.26%	44
Jiri Zuska	0.19%	526
Joel Moscatel	0.65%	154
John Gough	0.40%	250
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.23%	435
Jordan Wrisdale	0.42%	238
Joseba Torres	0.20%	500
Josep Maria Serra Busquet	0.02%	5000
Joseph Pagdin	0.22%	455
Jovan Rebula	0.67%	149
Juan Salama	0.11%	909
Julian Perico	1.51%	66
Julien Brun	1.04%	96
Julien Quesne	0.33%	303
Julien Sale	1.53%	65
Kim Koivu	0.15%	667
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.01%	10000
Lars Van Meijel	0.39%	256
Lauri Ruuska	0.32%	313
Liam Nolan	0.29%	345
Linus Lang	0.04%	2500
Logan Perkins	0.04%	2500
Lorenzo Scalise	0.90%	111
Lucas Vacarisas	0.63%	159
Luis Masaveu	3.05%	33
Lukas Nemecz	1.47%	68
M.J. Daffue	2.55%	39
M.J. Viljoen	0.61%	164
Marc Warren	0.81%	123
Marcel Fonseca	0.00%	10000
Mark Power	0.47%	213
Matteo Cristoni	0.66%	152
Matthew Southgate	1.24%	81
Matthias Schwab	0.24%	417
Matthis Besard	1.23%	81
Mattias Varjun	0.00%	10000
Max Kennedy	0.48%	208
Maxence Giboudot	1.13%	88
Maximilian Kieffer	1.15%	87
Maxwell Martin	0.03%	3333
Nick Bachem	0.16%	625
Nick Carlson	1.07%	93
Nikolas Tyminski	0.00%	10000
Oliver Gillberg	0.69%	145
Ollie Jacobsson	0.07%	1429
Pablo Ereno Perez	1.47%	68
Palmer Jackson	0.19%	526
Pedro Figueiredo	1.97%	51
Per Langfors	0.87%	115
Pierre Pineau	0.41%	244
Ralf Johan Kivi	0.00%	10000
Robert Foley	0.03%	3333
Robin Petersson	0.56%	179
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.62%	161
Robin Williams	0.74%	135
Ronan Kleu	0.65%	154
Rory Franssen	0.02%	5000
Ryan Lumsden	0.48%	208
Ryan Van Velzen	1.21%	83
Sam Hutsby	0.45%	222
Sam Jones	0.20%	500
Santiago Tarrio	0.91%	110
Saptak Talwar	1.14%	88
Sebastian Friedrichsen	1.26%	79
Steven Brown	0.20%	500
Tadeas Tetak	0.29%	345
Tapio Pulkkanen	2.08%	48
Tobias Eden	0.21%	476
Tomas Gouveia	0.88%	114
Tyko Tuohimaa	0.00%	10000
Varun Chopra	0.23%	435
Vasco Alves	0.01%	10000
Veer Ahlawat	0.88%	114
Victor Bjorlow	0.05%	2000
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.32%	313
Victor Pastor	0.46%	217
Wilco Nienaber	1.19%	84
Will Enefer	2.03%	49
Will Hopkins	0.19%	526
Will Porter	0.36%	278
Wouter De Vries	0.67%	149
Yannik Paul	1.44%	69

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN:
WIN:
WIN:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and and the six advised each-way plays FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays will be posted on Tuesday afternoon once odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised. FRL plays will be posted on Wednesday or one day prior to the start of the event.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.