Dunhill Championship

Outright plays (1 unit):

Justin Rose to win 14/1 e.w. @ Easybets and SIA
Retaining two of last week's selections even thought they returned a blank. Rose did get as high as 7th place in the final round before a late collapse, so hopefully it is only a matter of rustiness with his game. However, he was expected to improve this week simply because this event is being played in his birth place of Johannesburg. How much that has lifted his game previously is evidence by his 2nd, 1st and 7th place finishes in this event in the last three years. Let's hope 2004 is no different!

Brian Davis to win 25/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Davis makes his 2004 debut this week and it has been almost three months since he finished 3rd in the Volvo Masters. He is the type of player who tends to play very well in certain locations only and South Africa is one of them. Though he does tend to either miss cuts in this country or contend. He has finished no worse than 16th in five of his seven events in this country since 2000; on the other two occasions he either missed the cut or withdrew. Will take this price on a player who is very competitive when on his game.

Hennie Otto to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Paddy Power, BlueSq, BetDirect and Totalbet
Same price as last week and so will bite again. Presumably the odds are a little inflated because he failed to reach the weekend each year from 1999 to 2002, but he was in contention throughout the event last year until falling back to 23rd place in the final round. He is now a far better player than in previous years and should draw confidence from his ability to play well on this course last year. So having finished 16th last week with rounds of 66 and 65 sandwiching some quickly forgettable golf (including a 79!), he looks in good enough form to finally master this course.

Final update: 0-3; -3.00 units

Rose mc
Davis 33rd
Otto 64th

Not even a sniff of a place win. It can only get better next week!