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Dimension Data Pro-Am Outright plays (0.75
units): Darren Clarke to win 11/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
With Rose and Immelman much too short in the markets, Clarke gets the nod over
Price who played poorly in the Mercedes Championships and is 8/1 at best. This
is Clarke's first event of the year and while he has not always started quickly,
he did open his 2002 campaign here and finished 8th and won in 2001 having
missed the cut in his opening event, the South African Open. He finished last
season in good form and is certainly good enough, if not too rusty, to win this
week. Victor Chandler offer 12/1 but only four places. Jean Hugo to win
40/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Opposable last week after he had thrown away the South African Open over the
last few holes, but it was a solid top-25 finish and he is expected to bounce
back this week. The price is rather inflated, presumably because he has missed
the cuts on both his previous visits, but on both occasions he was coming into
the event off a missed cut and a lowly position in the two Southern African Tour
events preceding this one. He is in far better form and the open fairways for
the amateurs should suit his attacking game. Bruce Vaughan to finish in the
top-five 16/1 @ Five
Dimes
Has not won in the past seven years, so the place-only option seems the
appropriate strategy with Vaughan. He is a big price as he has missed his last
two cuts and while that is usually ample reason to avoid siding with a player,
it is noticeable that in his four previous visits (when he has finished 3rd,
10th, 7th and 17th) he has always missed the cut in at least one of the Dunhill
Championship and South African Open which precede this event.
 Matchup
plays (0.75 units): Andrew McLardy to beat Darren Fichardt -118 @ Expekt
Fichardt has missed the cut in the last two events, has a best of 44th in the
last five years in this event (beaten by McLardy on occasions that McLardy has
played) and trails 2-6-0 in head-to-heads with McLardy in the last year on the
Sunshine Tour. Looks a straightforward case for McLardy. Nic Henning to
beat Nicholas Lawrence -118 @ Expekt
Lawrence did finish 11th last year to beat Henning by 5 strokes, but is in
terrible form at the moment, missing his last three cuts. Henning has a good
record in this event and is the far more consistent player. Jean Hugo to
beat Charl Schwartzel -102 @ Five
Dimes
Schwartzel has played four times on the Sunshine Tour and on each occasion he
has failed to beat Hugo. With no course experience and coming off a missed cut,
he is opposable against the leading players this week. Mark McNulty to beat
Charl Schwartzel -125 @ Centrebet
Opposable against McNulty who had a very good record in this event, is very
consistent and won on this Tour only a month ago.
Mid-point update:
McLardy/Fichardt Leads by 5
Henning/Lawrence WON by 6
Hugo/Schwartzel Leads by 1
McNulty/Schwartzel LOST by 3 Clarke 2nd
Hugo 47th
Vaughan 1st Good opportunities in the outrights with the selections occupying
the top two spots on the leaderboard. The concluded matchups are split with the
"consistent" McNulty not being very consistent and missing the cut, but there is
every chance of a decent return from this event.
Final update: Matchups:
3-1-0; +1.31 units McLardy/Fichardt WON by 15
Hugo/Schwartzel WON by 12 Outrights: 1-2; +10.50 units Clarke 8th
Hugo 12th
Vaughan 2nd Decent return on the event thanks primarily to Bruce Vaughan's
brave display. Still suffering from a botched knee operation, he collapsed three
times on Friday as his knee gave way. Good job I didn't read about this
beforehand else I would have avoided betting on him! Didn't have any TV
coverage, so couldn't tell whether it was rustiness that caused Clarke's
collapse or his usual attitude when things turn the wrong way. He finished one
shot short of a top-5 finish, but with only 14 pars over his last 36 holes, he
was certainly erratic.
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