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18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Miles

Odds: 2-Balls

 

Odds: 3-Balls

Barbasol Championship
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RD 1:

My favorite tournament of the year.  Going to be a lot of plays.

1:57 AM ET  Grillo -125 over List 2.5pts

2:41 AM ET  Cantlay -105 over Lowry 2.5pts

3:36 AM ET  Cink -140 over Tanihara 2.5pts

4:47 AM ET  Kuchar -125 over Uihlein 2.5pts

4:58 AM ET  Rose -135 over Spieth 3pts

5:20 AM ET Casey -120 over Reed 2.5pts

7:09 AM ET  Moore -130 over Levy 2.5pts

5Dimes

Additonal plays will be put up around 8 AM ET.

TIPPING STRATEGY

My strategy is based on several different theories, which I have outlined below. It is also 99% based on numbers. Every play I post is supported by some form of numbers, not what I think should happen.



1) History repeats itself. The large majority of tournaments each year are played on the same course. And while the players change, the stats and power rankings that predict success on each course typically do not. And this is where trends are helpful. (Trends are very helpful for tournaments with new courses as well)

• The trends that I use are specific to each round of each tournament. I use approximately 40 different player stats and approximately 50 different power rankings. These stats and power rankings are for an 8 week period and a 4 week period, and are also weighted. The win/loss record of each of these stats and power rankings are accumulated from the three previous years of each tournament. The average sample size is no less than a 100 head to head matchups for each round.



2) It is my belief that individual sports provide the greatest opportunity for playing underdogs. Therefore, determining which underdogs have the most value can be highly profitable.

• In regards to golf, if an individual has a bad day, he does not have any teammates to pick up the slack. In addition, betting lines for the world’s top players are often grossly inflated in order to balance the action. And even the world’s top players have bad days or extended periods of bad play. The models I have created and are continuing to develop (regression analysis) allow me to find high value underdogs.



3) More to come……

 

STAKING PLAN

My plays are based upon a percentage of my starting bankroll each season. They range from 1% to 8%, with the large majority ranging from 3% to 5%. In order to stay consistent with my fellow tipsters here on TourTips, I have converted my % system to a points system. 1% is equal to 0.5pts. Therefore, a 3% play equals 1.5pts, a 5% play equals 2.5pts, etc.