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Round 2 play (4pts): Keegan Bradley to beat Scott Piercy -125 @ William Hill TIED
Piercy has shown some form recently and on this course, but he still not at the same level of the PGA Champion. He ranks outside the top-150 in the World Rankings, whereas the level of Bradley's game can be seen not just by his win in Atlanta, but also his consistency: over the past five months, his finishes read 16th, 11th, 12th, 16th, 17th, 1st, 16th, 13th and 22nd. [unofficial rd2 system play: Simpson tb Bradley -150 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Bo Van Pelt to beat Johson Wagner -105 @ 5Dimes WON by 2
Wagner is the favourite in this matchup presumably as his three finishes this year have been 9th, 1st and 2nd, but he has never fared well on this course. In his four previous visits, he has missed the cut three times and finished 60th on the other occasion. He currently lies in 12th place, but he ranks outside the top-60 in driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation and scrambling. In terms of the putting categories he ranks around 40th, so it is quite some feat to be playing so indifferently and scoring well enough to be 12th. He is clearly struggling around this course again and can be opposed with a player who has shown much better form this week. Round 4 play (4pts): Webb Simpson to beat Bubba Watson -125 @ Stan James [also available @ 5Dimes, Boyle Sports and Carib]
Good odds for Simpson to fare better than Watson today, particularly when you consider that Five Dimes price Simpson -160 and Carib -170. Both players have looked good this week and could still put runaway leader, Spencer Levin, under a lot of pressure as they are both in the final group with the leader. However, their histories when in such a position are very different. Whereas Simpson has shot 70 or better in each of the six occasions that he has started the final round in the top-3 over the past 12 months, Watson's five previous occurences over the same period have resulted in final round scores of 78, 69, 78, 74 and 77. Only one of these two players is proven under final round pressure. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Leishman tb Jones -130; Frazar tb Noh -120; Dufner tb Chalmers -135; Dufner tb Stroud -150] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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