This season I will be providing tips for Betfair – a name which has become
synonymous with betting exchanges. There are of course other betting exchanges,
but Betfair has the vast majority of the liquidity – certainly for golf markets
- so it will be the source of prices used in the tips here.
Betting exchanges allow us the opportunity to ‘lay’ or oppose players, and that
is primarily the form the tips on this page will take.
The staking plan is based on a 200pt starting bank, and initially at least I
will be looking to risk no more than 10% of the bank in any one week. I believe
that in the early weeks of the year the natural enthusiasm for the new season
needs to be tempered with some restraint as results can be somewhat
unpredictable until form patterns have settled down.
I intend to post tips before the start of the week’s event either on the
Wednesday or Thursday. Then where the opportunity presents itself there may be
further tips to follow between the rounds during the event.
So, on to this week’s tips:
LAY Jim Furyk to lose 10pts @7.0 (i.e. stake 1.67pts)
LAY Vijay Singh to lose 10pts @7.0 (i.e. stake 1.67pts)
Both have good records here but I feel these prices are just a bit on the short
side to be going off at.
LAY Angel Cabrera to lose 20pts @28.0 (i.e. stake 0.74pts)
LAY Henrik Stenson to lose 20pts @26.0 (i.e. stake 0.8pts)
Both making their debut in the event and this is the sort of quirky course that
may take a few tries to get used to.
Update after round 1:
LAY Vijay Singh to lose 10pts @12.5 (i.e. stake 0.87pts)
Adding to the existing Singh position as after his opening 74 I feel this price
is even poorer value (hence even better value from a laying perspective)
relative to his price before the start.
Update after round 3:
Of the 4 lays Stenson can surely be discounted now.
Furyk has come right back in to it, and I feel at the current price it is
sensible to close out the position on him
BACK Jim Furyk to win 10.5pts @15 (i.e. stake 0.75pts)
Singh and Cabrera still both hold outside chances, but at the current prices
rather than close out the positions completely I will instead just reduce the
liabilities on them.
BACK Vijay Singh to win 18pts @23 (i.e. stake 0.82pts)
BACK Angel Cabrera to win 15pts @50 (i.e. stake 0.31pts)
This leaves the overall p/l position as:
The field +3.87
Furyk +3.45
Singh +0.15
Cabrera -1.57
Stenson – 16.93
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STATS: Tour Event In-Running
