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Spread Picks - PGA Tour |
Tipster: Andy |
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FP's
Buy Robert Allenby FP at 30 for 0.5 Pts with Spreadex
MU 10.5 Loss 9.25 Pts Buy Ernie Els FP at 34 for 0.5 Pts with Sporting Index
MU 6.5, loss 13.75 Pts Allenby has played here five times and has only beaten the quote once, finishing 9th two years ago. He is a low 30 after a 2nd in Hawaii, but course form suggests there is a bit of value in the 30 quote.
Els has only played once in 2005 finishing 6th as he normally plays the Desert events on the European tour at this time of year. His form over the last couple of years does not suggest he should be 3rd lowest priced here and a fair figure for him would be 37-38 not 34.
R1 18's
Sell Rickie Fowler over Blake Adams at 2 for 0.5 Pts with Sporting Index
M/U 16, Loss 7 Pts
Fowler has struggled so far on this tour, finishing 13 strokes behind Adams at the Sony, and was 11 strokes behind Adams whilst missing the cut last week, Adams went on to finish 25th. This is a price based on the hype that accompanied Fowler to this tour and while he will probably have a better career than Adams, current form dicates Adams shouldn't be the "dog" here.
Sell Phil Mickelson over Ryan Palmer at 9 for 0.5 Pts with Sporting Index
M/U -16, Profit 12.5 Pts
Sell Phil Mickelson over Marc Turnesa at 15 for 0.5 Pts with Sporting Index
M/U 25, Loss 5 Pts
Just a play on price here, with the Turnesa trade. It's too big even although the difference in quality of the two players is quite vast. In all fairness it should be about 12-15, 13-16 at the most.
Palmer won the Sony so is in a bit of form and maybe shouldn't be as big an outsider.
Bets: 5, Wins:
2, Losses: 2, P&L = -22.5 Pts
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