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Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Andy

Odds: Spreads

Bob Hope Chrysler Classic

Spread Betting News (Sporting Index)

Summary: Bets 5, Wins 2, Losses 3. Profit 1.75 Pts Things went our way in R5 to make a small profit on this tour but it will take a few good weeks to recover the European results. Looking forward to the challenge.

Pre Round One Trades

Buy Phil Mickelson FP at 17 with Spreadex for 0.5 Pts M/U 6, Loss 5.5 Pts
Buying Mickelson at the Hope in the 5 years he has played would result in 5 losses, averaging around 9 pts lost per bet, so why buy him this week. Basically, with all the advantages buying brings, increased M/U's for ties, automatic 50 M/Us for DQ's or WD's and you really have to wonder if anyone (bar Woods) should be as low as 17 in a 130 odd man field in their first serious golf for 3 months, which of course hasn't affected him in the past. There are enough question marks to suggest 17 is worth trading at. His average position is a full 7 points higher on this tour and he misses more than 1 in 8 cuts so with an acceptance that this bet is odds on to lose, it has a far greater upside than down. Looking at the quote from Sporting Index though doesn't suggest there is any advantage trading there for the bigger financial carrot dangled.

Pre Round Two Trades

 

Buy Ben Crane at 27 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts. M/U 32, Profit 2.5 Pts

 

Buy Pat Perez at 16 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 50, Profit 17 Pts

Crane played La Quinta yesterday and the leader, Perez, played PGA west. The course averages showed that playing the host course was half a stroke harder than La Quinta and a full stroke harder than PGA West. When you put this into the mix and study the leaderboard, Crane and Perez are arguably both 3 points too low at the quotes offered. Perez obviously has a good cushion from R1 but he still has 72 holes to play from here on in.  

 

 

Pre Round Three Trades

 

Buy John Senden FP at 18 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 6, Loss 6 Pts

 

Buy Olin Browne FP at 21 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 8.5, Loss 6.25 Pts

 

Both these players have still to play the host course which in poorer conditions yesterday played a couple of strokes harder than the others. Given that there are still 54 holes to go and that 6 strokes separates 45 players from Senden in 2nd down suggests that playing the tougher course for 36 of the 54 holes may be a bigger obstacle than the prices reflect.