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The Masters
FINAL RESULT: poor week, none of the picks ever looked like even challenging. -6.9pts
It seems very hard to look past the big 4 (or maybe that should be big 5) in identifying an eventual winner here. Mickelson, Els, Singh and Woods all have very strong claims and together with Goosen probably justifiably make up a large percentage of the market.
However! - The great thing about the Betfair outright market is that you don't have to pick the winner of the tournament to make a profit. I believe that the best way to play it this week is something very similar to the tactic used for the TPC two weeks ago: back some big priced players and look to trade in-running.
Back Tom Lehman 1pt @120 at Betfair
Back Jay Haas 0.4pts @260 at Betfair
Back Zach Johnson 1.2pts @90 at Betfair
Three players I've made something of a habit of backing - simply they are consistently over-priced in almost every event they play. In the case of Lehman and Haas this could be because it is hard to see them actually winning an event - but as I mentioned before, you don't need to find the winner to make a profit.
Johnson's price did dip down in to non-value territory as he defended the Bell South last week, but despite not having a disaster there by any means it has sprung back up again. He showed he could handle Sawgrass on his debut there, lets see if he can do the same at Augusta.
Back Stewart Cink 1pt e/w @66/1 at Ladbrokes
Back KJ Choi 0.5pts e/w @110/1 at Tote
Gone to the bookies for these as the prices are better than on Betfair. Cink has an ok record here, but is a much improved player these days and a proven winner of big events. I think there's a good chance he'll bag a major this year - why not here? These are big odds on Choi considering he has been 15th and 3rd in his previous starts at the Masters. He's got himself in good positions a few times already this season, but fallen away at the end, so again a trade out at some point may be the best tactic.
Many 'novelty' markets around as it's a major and a bit of value at GolfingGods I think in their without the big 4 market:
Back Jay Haas 0.25pts e/w W/O the big 4 @100/1 at GolfingGods
Back Nick Price 0.4pts e/w W/O the big 4 @150/1 at GolfingGods
Price is still a class act and has a good record round here, including a 6th place last year. I reckon 150/1 is a fair price for him in the outright market, let alone one with the big 4 missing.
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