FBR Open

FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Maruyama 36th
Jacobson 77th
Langer 49th

Should have closed out the Langer play after two rounds. His tee-to-green play had been awful in the first two rounds, but he still entered the weekend in 3rd place and was available to lay at 4/1 for a top-5 place on Betfair. Just seemed very small guaranteed returns compared to how much could be won if he suddenly found his game over the weekend. But he didn't! So maybe I'll learn next time.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Shigeki Maruyama to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
Scratching around for good prices on the people I really like to win this week and can't find any. So looking for better value plays on underrated players who has shown well here in the past. First up is Maruyama who led for so long in the Sony Open, but couldn't buy a putt in the final round. A top-30 finish in the following Buick Invitational was a decent result under the circumstances. So he shouldn't be at these odds in this form and it based primarily on his course history. But a closer look shows that he has actually scored rather well on this course, but failed dismally on Saturdays. He can play well on these types of courses and he did finish 6th in his last appearance in the other Arizona event, the Tucson Open, so there is no reason why he shouldn't be in the thick of the action at the weekend again.

Fredrik Jacobson to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
Hard to think why he should be generally at 50s rather than 33s or certainly 40s. Two starts this season have yielded two top-20 finishes, he shot 62 in the 2nd round last week to lift him up to 2nd and he stayed in the top-5 for the rest of the week until a poor final round. He is clearly a player in form and having finished in the top-10 last year, could certainly be a contender again this week.

Bernhard Langer to finish in the top-five 24/1 @ Expekt
Plugging away with Langer as these odds in no reflect his true probabilities of achieving a top-5 finish. He has had one such finish in three starts this year and played solidly last week to finish 23rd, but it is notable that he improved his leaderboard finish in every round after Thursday. That should put him in good stead for this week as he tries to right a poor final round performance in this event last year. He finished 27th, but had been 4th heading into the final round so the German, who is finally publicly revelling in his position as a Ryder Cup captain as he seeks another term, should continue his golfing renaissance this week.